In July, the start-up load of some domestic PVC Paste Resin enterprises slightly declined, but the real positive effect on the market was limited. As the oversupply of paste Resin continued to be obvious, there was still room for the price of short-term paste resin to decline.
In July, the average start-up level of domestic PVC paste resin enterprises showed a significant decline. The average start-up load in July was 55.29%, which was 15.89% lower than the average start-up of 71.18% in June. In May, due to the centralized maintenance of some paste resin enterprises, the start-up load was 66.30%, while the average start-up load in July was 11.01% lower than that in May. However, the paste resin maintenance enterprises were limited in July, and the start-up load of most paste resin enterprises declined to varying degrees, resulting in a decline in the start-up load compared with the level of centralized maintenance season in May.
The main reason for the obvious decline of starting load is the decrease of paste resin price, and some enterprises have begun to make losses. Due to the overall weakness of the glove products industry, the number of orders and the price of orders both fell sharply, resulting in a sharp drop in the start-up of the glove products industry. Since April, the demand for paste resin glove materials was basically stagnant. Most paste resin enterprises with micro suspension process began to switch to large plate materials to relieve the inventory pressure of glove materials. However, due to the small demand for glove materials and the increase in the supply of large plate materials, As a result, the supply of glove materials and large plate materials was in surplus, and the prices fell. As of July 8, the price of PVC paste resin in domestic market was 8900-9300 yuan / ton, and that of glove material was 9000-10300 yuan / ton, down 5300-7600 yuan / ton and 13000-16200 yuan / ton compared with that at the end of March.
In terms of the profit of PVC paste resin, the price of raw calcium carbide remained at a high level in the first half of the year due to the double positive effects of policy and demand. Taking the average ex factory price of Wuhai calcium carbide as an example, the price in the first half of the year was close to 4000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 50% over the same period last year. The price of raw calcium carbide continued to be high and firm, while the price of paste resin continued to fall deeply due to the demand. The profit of paste resin began to decline significantly in April, and the decline was obvious. Taking a paste resin enterprise in Hebei and Inner Mongolia as an example, the average loss at the end of June was nearly 300 yuan / ton, and the average loss as of July 8 was nearly 800 yuan / ton. If calculated by the ex factory price of large plate materials, the loss has exceeded 1300 yuan / ton. In the case of obvious loss of products, some paste resin enterprises which are mining calcium carbide began to reduce production load. However, the paste resin enterprises with calcium carbide have not made any loss, and the start-up has not changed much.
Although some paste resin enterprises reduced the starting load in July, the support to the market is limited. The main reason is that the inventory of most paste resin enterprises is on the high side, and even individual paste resin enterprises have obvious inventory pressure. Therefore, the decline of starting load has not prevented the decline of paste resin price. On July 12, some high price brands of paste resin continued to reduce their quotation to stimulate shipment. Some brands sealed their plates but did not offer. East China's large plate materials were mainly sent to 8800-9200 yuan / ton. Some even heard of lower prices. The glove materials were mainly discussed on actual orders. In the future, the market price may still have downward expectations:
First, on the supply side, although we have heard that some paste resin enterprises have plans for device maintenance from late July to early August (see the table below), considering that the paste resin inventory of some enterprises is still relatively high, the real positive effect of maintenance on the market is still limited, and some enterprises still need to ship and reduce the stock first.
Secondly, in terms of demand, with the arrival of high temperature in summer, some downstream products enterprises of large plate materials in southern China began to gradually enter the off-season of demand, and the start of the products industry declined. Moreover, some products enterprises still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, so the market entry purchasing is limited, and some just need to purchase. Although sporadic downstream enterprises think that the price of paste resin has basically bottomed out, there is a demand for stock, But the lead time is short. The overall atmosphere of the glove products industry is depressed, and the average starting load of the industry is about 30%. Some people in the glove products industry are still pessimistic about the third quarter, and even sporadic glove products enterprises have not yet digested the high price glove materials in the early stage. Therefore, in the short term, the price of glove materials continues to be mainly supported by sporadic rigid demand, and the demand continues to be weak.
Although the price of raw calcium carbide continues to be high and firm due to policy factors, the oversupply situation still leaves room for paste resin price to decline. Some paste resin enterprises still need to lower the stock by shipping. It is estimated that there is still room for short-term paste resin price to decline. However, considering the high support of raw calcium carbide price, it is estimated that the space for paste resin price to decline will be narrowed, and some high prices may still decline, In the second half of July, we still need to pay attention to the start-up changes of paste resin enterprises.
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