1、 Capacity and output of Caustic Soda
By the end of 2020, the global caustic soda production capacity will reach 99.959 million tons, and China's caustic soda production capacity will reach 44.7 million tons, accounting for 44.7% of the world's total production capacity, ranking first in the world; The concentration of domestic industries is very low. Caustic soda industry belongs to the industry with excess capacity listed by the state. The government strictly limits the new caustic soda production capacity, phased out the backward production capacity, and encourages and promotes the development of advanced production capacity.
Since 2010, the output and production capacity of caustic soda in China have increased steadily. From 2011 to 2014, the growth rate was relatively fast, of which the average growth rate of output was maintained at more than 10%, while the average growth rate of production capacity was still about 6.75%; In 2015, affected by the supply side reform and environmental protection policies, the industry chain of caustic soda was structurally adjusted, and the capacity and output of caustic soda showed negative growth on a month on month basis; After the adjustment in 2015, the growth rate of production capacity and output is relatively stable from 2016 to 2020. Over the past 10 years, China's output has increased from 24.66 million tons in 2011 to 36.432 million tons in 2020, an increase of 47.7%; The production capacity is relatively stable, rising from 34.12 million tons in 2011 to 42.485 million tons, with an annual growth rate of about 3.59%.
2、 Demand analysis of caustic soda
In recent years, China's demand for the downstream application of caustic soda has increased, which has led to the rise of caustic soda consumption. According to the data, China's caustic soda consumption shows an overall upward trend from 2010 to 2020. By 2020, China's caustic soda consumption will reach 35.32 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.21%. The decline in consumption in 2015 was due to the impact of the decline in production.
The downstream applications of caustic soda industry include 32% of alumina, 16% of chemical industry, 12% of papermaking, 11% of textile printing and dyeing, and 29% of others. After the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the bottom of the international aluminum price will rise, and the operating rate of the alumina industry will rise, pushing up the demand of the caustic soda industry.
Specifically, the global demand for caustic soda is mainly concentrated in Asia, Europe and North America. At the same time, Asia is also the region with the fastest growth rate of demand. By the end of 2020, Asia's annual demand will reach 46.738 million tons, accounting for 61.68% of the global total demand, while Asian demand is mainly concentrated in China, with an annual demand of 32.563 million tons.
The demand of caustic soda in Europe is close to that in North America. In 2020, the demand will be 11.621 million tons, accounting for about 15% of the total global demand. It is reported that the growth of European demand is mainly concentrated in the chemical industry, pulp, soap industry and other fields. The demand in North America will also account for about 15% in 2020, mainly concentrated in the United States, and the main downstream industries are chemical industry, pulp and paper industry, etc. The growth rate of demand for caustic soda in Europe and America is relatively limited.
3、 Caustic soda capacity planning
In the next two years, the planned capacity of China's caustic soda industry will be 1.45 million tons, with an average growth rate of 1.6%, significantly lower than the demand growth rate of the industry in the past few years. Due to the serious overcapacity of domestic caustic soda production, the government strictly limits the new caustic soda production capacity, phases out the backward production capacity, and encourages and promotes the development of advanced production capacity, so the capacity planning of caustic soda in China is less.
4、 Problems in China's caustic soda industry
1. Great pressure on environmental protection
At present, the primary problem faced by China's chlor alkali industry is the pressure of environmental protection. The Montreal Protocol has been implemented in the world, and China has signed the POPs Convention and re established the pollution charge standard, which has increased the huge environmental pressure for the chlor alkali industry. At the same time, there is a certain gap between the comprehensive treatment and utilization of three wastes in China's chlor alkali production and various policies and provisions. How to improve the level of enterprises according to the requirements of sustainable development and circular economy is a major test for chlor alkali industry. Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, environmental protection has been raised to an unprecedented political height. How to improve the environmental protection level and ability of the industry and reduce consumption has become a big mountain in front of the caustic soda industry.
2. The level of salt consumption is high
Statistics show that the salt consumption in caustic soda production in China is at a high level (generally 1.55-1.60 tons), and even as high as 1.67-1.76 tons in some enterprises. Relatively speaking, the salt consumption of foreign ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is generally less than 1.5 tons.
The reason is that although our caustic soda production process has adopted the more advanced ion-exchange membrane production process, the core technology of ion-exchange membrane is still owned by foreign countries. Domestic chlor alkali manufacturers generally import foreign ion-exchange membrane, which is always a huge hidden danger to the development of China's chlor alkali industry. At the same time, raw salt has become an important part of caustic soda production cost. However, the adjustment of industrial structure, the control of highway overrun and dust control are having a deep impact on the raw salt market, which has a huge impact on caustic soda.
Therefore, one of the key points to promote the development of chlor alkali industry is to do a good job in chlor alkali production and research and development of supporting equipment, develop advanced domestic ion exchange membrane, reduce energy consumption and salt consumption, and reduce production cost. Of course, it is also the common wish of China's chlor alkali industry to produce high-quality ion-exchange Resin that can lead the foreign countries. The ion-exchange resin developed by domestic R & D institutions has also made remarkable achievements, and some of the main indicators have reached or exceeded the level of similar foreign ion-exchange membranes. It is believed that with the Ministry of industry and information technology listing ion exchange membrane as a key strategic material in the "13th five year plan" new material industry development guide, the domestic ion exchange resin will reach or even surpass the foreign level in a short time.
3. Single product structure
Caustic soda is always a profitable product in chlor alkali industry, but the unreasonable structure of chlor alkali products in China has become a problem that can not be ignored.
In short, chlorine consumption products generally have low added value and weak market risk resistance. Although over the years, the chlor alkali industry has recognized the seriousness of the problem and improved from all directions. However, from the current situation, the proportion of low value-added inorganic chlorine products is too large, the proportion of high value-added organic chlorine products is small, and the proportion of high-end products, special products, deep processing products and high value-added products, especially the fine chemical products which are of great significance to the development of chlor alkali industry, is generally small and the development efforts are not enough, Chlorine products of many enterprises still stay in hydrochloric ACID, liquid chlorine and calcium carbide PVC.
The unreasonable structure of alkali products has become a problem that can not be ignored in the industry. In short, chlorine consumption products generally have low added value and weak market risk resistance. Although over the years, the chlor alkali industry has recognized the seriousness of the problem and improved from all directions. However, from the current situation, the proportion of low value-added inorganic chlorine products is too large, the proportion of high value-added organic chlorine products is small, and the proportion of high-end products, special products, deep processing products and high value-added products, especially the fine chemical products which are of great significance to the development of chlor alkali industry, is generally small and the development efforts are not enough, Chlorine products of many enterprises still stay in hydrochloric acid, liquid chlorine and calcium carbide PVC.
