1、 Overview
Carbon Black is a quasi graphite structure material which is formed by incomplete combustion or thermal cracking of hydrocarbon compounds (mainly petroleum derivatives) and is similar to spherical colloidal particles. It exists in the form of aggregates and appears as pure black powder or granules. The particle size, structure and surface activity of products vary greatly according to the raw materials and production processes. According to the different application fields, carbon black can be mainly divided into rubber carbon black and non rubber carbon black.
2、 Industrial chain analysis
1. Industrial chain
The upstream of the carbon black industry chain is the link of raw materials, mainly including coal tar, anthracene oil, ethylene tar and other raw materials; The middle reaches are production and supply links, mainly including carbon black for rubber and carbon black for non rubber; Downstream is mainly used in tire, rubber products, plastics, coatings, inks, batteries and other industries.
2. Upstream end analysis
The main raw materials for carbon black production are coal tar, anthracene oil, ethylene tar and other raw materials. Among them, coal tar and anthracene oil are the by-products of coking, accounting for more than 80% of the feedstock, and are the most important feedstocks. Ethylene tar is the by-product of petroleum refining to produce ethylene, accounting for 16.6% of the feedstock.
3. Downstream end analysis
From the perspective of the downstream consumption structure of the industry, tires are the largest consumption area of carbon black in China, accounting for 66.7% in 2021. The second is other rubber products and plastics, accounting for 22.2% and 6.3% respectively.
3、 Industry status
1. Output
With the development of rubber, automobile and other industries in China in recent years, the rapid development of carbon black industry has been promoted, and the overall industrial output is on the rise. In 2020, due to the impact of factors such as insufficient construction and shortage of raw materials caused by the epidemic, the output will decline significantly. With the effective control of the epidemic, the output began to rise. According to data, China's carbon black output will be 5.2 million tons in 2021, up 7.9% year on year.
From the perspective of the distribution of production process, China banned the construction of new dry granulation capacity and gradually eliminated the traditional capacity after 2004. At present, wet granulation has become the mainstream granulation process. In 2020, the output of wet granulation carbon black will account for 99%, and the output of dry granulation carbon black will account for 1%.
2. Capacity
Thanks to the continuous expansion of the industry scale, China's carbon black production capacity has also continued to rise in recent years. Specifically, China's carbon black production capacity will reach 8.2 million tons/year in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%.
4. Price
From the perspective of carbon black price, in recent years, with the rise of upstream raw material prices, China's carbon black prices have also been rising. Specifically, the average price of carbon black in China increased from 7348 yuan/ton in January 2021 to 9998 yuan/ton in August 2022.
5. Import and export trade
From the perspective of carbon black import and export trade, China's carbon black is mainly exported, and the export volume is far greater than the import volume. Specifically, in 2021, China's carbon black import volume will be 102200 tons and the import amount will be 317 million dollars; The export volume was 721700 tons and the export amount was 936 million US dollars.
6. Export distribution
From the perspective of export distribution, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia will account for 32.69%, 21.9% and 15.05% of China's carbon black exports in 2021.
4、 Drivers
1. Policy
With the continuous development of China's carbon black industry, the industry has gradually emerged the problem of structural surplus, that is, overcapacity of traditional carbon black, while some special carbon black depends on imports. Therefore, the state has issued a series of directional guiding policies on carbon black, which have raised the threshold for industry entry, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the industry pattern, and improved the international competitiveness of enterprises, creating a good policy environment for the industry.
2. Technology
From the perspective of industry related patent technology, with the continuous development of China's carbon black industry, industry related technology has also been improved, and the number of industry related patents has also been growing. According to data, the number of carbon black related patent applications in China will be 6853 in 2021, down 15.8% year on year.
5、 Development trend
At present, the carbon black industry has changed from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. With the increasing constraints of resources and environment on the industry, the development of the industry is full of complexity and uncertainty, and the low-end market competition is large and homogenization is serious, so the industry is facing more challenges. In recent years, the state has successively issued a series of relevant policies and regulatory documents, such as the Guiding Catalogue for Industrial Restructuring and the Catalogue for Eliminating Backward Production Capacities, Processes and Products, pointing out the direction for the development of the carbon black industry. Energy conservation and emission reduction, comprehensive utilization of resources, development of circular economy, economies of scale, and development of green products have become the focus of the future development of the industry The encouragement and support of national policies provide favorable opportunities for the rapid development of enterprises with advanced technology and comprehensive utilization of resources, such as the utilization of high added value of coke oven gas. In addition, the carbon black industry belongs to the high energy consuming industry specified by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the country will strictly restrict the development of the high energy consuming industry in the future. China is a major producer of carbon black in the world, accounting for nearly 50% of the global total capacity. Under the supply side reform driven by dual control regulation of energy consumption, it is expected that the domestic small capacity will face the pressure of clearing up in the future, and the market share of large-scale enterprises is expected to rise steadily.
