Introduction
The market prices of liquid Caustic Soda still rose in the first ten days of October, but the prices of liquid caustic soda in some markets have entered the downward channel in the last ten days. How is the market price of liquid caustic soda expected to operate in the next month?
Review of market conditions in October
In the first ten days of October, the market prices of most liquid caustic soda continued the previous upward trend. By the end of October, the market prices of some liquid caustic soda in North China, East China, South China and other regions had declined, as shown in the figure. Taking Shandong as an example, the price in the middle of October rose to an average of 1277.5 yuan/ton, while the price in the last ten days continued to fall. As of October 28, the closing average price of the day was 1117.5 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the peak in the middle of the year, a decline of 12.52%. We will take a phased view of the market situation behind the price change from up to down.
In the first ten days of October, some markets, such as Anhui, Sichuan and Shandong, had chlor alkali enterprises overhauling, and the supply of liquid caustic soda decreased. As of October 20, the weekly operating load rate of chlor alkali units nationwide was 78.45%, down 0.63 percentage points from the beginning of the month. The overall receiving situation in the downstream was relatively stable. In coastal markets, such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong, some chlor alkali enterprises were still stocking up for export orders, and the domestic supply of liquid caustic soda decreased, Exports still benefit the price of liquid caustic soda to a certain extent, and the price of liquid caustic soda rose to a high level.
In late October, some chlor alkali enterprises were still overhauled, and the supply of some liquid caustic soda was relatively low. However, due to the large increase in the price of liquid caustic soda in the early stage and the continuous high level, the downstream profit space was narrowed, the operating pressure was increased, and there was resistance to the high price liquid caustic soda, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was reduced. In the near future, the main export place in Europe, due to the large amount of liquid caustic soda imported in the early stage, the inventory of liquid caustic soda rose, and the willingness to receive goods also declined, and the market of liquid caustic soda in the later stage was wait-and-see attitude, The export benefits have been exhausted. The price of domestic liquid caustic soda has suffered from both downstream demand and export, and the price of some markets has declined. In this case, domestic downstream and traders also hold a wait-and-see attitude, and some downstream purchase at a depressed price, and the market price has declined significantly.
Market forecast in November
From the supply side, the chlor alkali enterprises planned less maintenance in November, and the early maintenance enterprises expected to start up. The supply of liquid caustic soda is more adequate most of the time, which is bad for the price of liquid caustic soda; From the demand side, the alumina industry is still expected to be in a loss state, the purchase price of liquid caustic soda is strictly controlled, and it is expected that in the heating season, the operating rate of local alumina capacity may decline, and the demand for liquid caustic soda is expected to decrease, which is bad for the price of liquid caustic soda; Due to weak demand and poor price performance in viscose fiber industry, most enterprises are still in a loss state, the operating load rate is expected to change little, and the demand for liquid caustic soda is difficult to increase; It is estimated that the commencement of other industries in November will not change much, the demand for liquid caustic soda is relatively stable, and the demand for liquid caustic soda will remain rigid; From the perspective of exports, the export price is expected to decline steadily and the export volume will decrease, which will be negative for the price of liquid caustic soda. On the whole, in November, the supply of liquid caustic soda increased, the domestic demand decreased, and the export decreased. It is expected that the price of liquid caustic soda will still decline to a certain extent under the adverse circumstances.
