8. At the beginning of April, when the epidemic hit the head, do not panic!
Although the export market is shrinking due to the new epidemic, and the domestic Titanium Dioxide market is facing a serious crisis on the surface, "the crisis and the opportunity always coexist, and overcoming the crisis is the opportunity".
First of all, it is not impossible to get out at the moment when the epidemic situation is severe, but the demand is discounted, and the "all demand" worldwide has been pressed the "pause button";
Secondly, the epidemic situation is only temporary. With the end of the epidemic situation, the demand side of those big demand countries will soon enter the pace of procurement, which is bound to be an explosive demand return;
Third, in this difficult time, domestic exporters are actively exploring the demand compensation of other countries;
Finally, all kinds of domestic downstream industries are still developing and expanding at a high speed, and the demand market is undeniably growing, which is a demand growth point that can not be ignored.
The above four points can relieve the export pressure to a great extent, and the future export market of titanium dioxide will be a global balanced development.
9. In order to adapt to the market, titanium dioxide manufacturers "double adjustment".
Faced with the impact of the epidemic at home and abroad, domestic manufacturers adopt the "double adjustment" strategy to adjust the operating rate and ex factory price. The whole industry is under pressure both inside and outside. By adjusting and reducing the operating rate, the over supply in the comprehensive market will be reduced, the social inventory will be reduced, the double pressure of sales and inventory will be eased, and the concentration of weak atmosphere will be reduced. It is a fact that the demand is weak, and the consensus among titanium dioxide manufacturers in the weak channel is not high. The manufacturers in southwest and other regions are the first to pull down the actual single price in the trading market The producers who are not qualified for price reduction are also dragged down.
10. In the first ten days of April, there were two cases of titanium dioxide export.
The export of titanium dioxide can be divided into two situations: India and other countries are completely closed, and the export is indeed affected; while some Asian countries, despite the impact of the epidemic, still have normal production, and this part of the demand is still moving. There are not a few countries like this, and there will be more and more, which can alleviate the export pressure to a great extent,
11. Demand recovery did not meet expectations, trading market chaos.
Before the May Day holiday, the first reaction to the market was confusion. The difference between the quotations of different suppliers for the same product was up to 500 yuan / ton. It was also rumored that individual dealers were driven by panic psychology. The sales of rutile type of sulfuric ACID process was less than 12000 yuan / ton, which was not representative and needed to be verified.
12. The price of titanium dioxide market changes have two characteristics?
① The frequency of price adjustment is fast. Some flexible producers adjust their prices every week, mainly according to the market environment and spot inventory, to maintain their own price positioning and advantages;
② The form of price adjustment is open. At the end of April, a manufacturer in Panzhihua announced a reduction of 500-1000 yuan / ton, which always gives people the illusion that the reduction of 500 yuan is actually 1000 yuan.
13. The homogenization replacement operation in the terminal market is obvious, and the goods holders are nervous.
In fact, most of the end customers adopt a + B bilateral supply, and there are multiple options. The consumption ratio of a and B is adjusted according to market price, spot supply and product characteristics. In addition, the price of titanium dioxide market has fallen rapidly, which is rare over the years. It is mainly affected by the global epidemic, not only because the export of titanium dioxide is limited, but also because many downstream exports shrink, which directly affects its demand for upstream titanium dioxide and other raw materials. It is also a dead cycle of delayed terminal purchase plan, compressed single purchase volume and aggravating wait-and-see mood.
14. At the end of April, the trading market was seriously divided.
There is also a "immortal fight" among large manufacturers, which is also a fight for every inch of land for the terminal customers. For them, "raw materials + mass production" is an important way to control costs, and the flexible price of large orders is understandable, but it is not representative.
15. At the beginning of June, there was a "suicide" offer from shippers.
There are many rumors of low prices in the market, and the price war is more prominent. In fact, the main problem is not the price. No matter how low the price is, it can not solve the demand. The cost of large manufacturers is relatively low, and there is still room for price adjustment. However, most small and medium-sized manufacturers have no room for price adjustment, so it is unnecessary to adjust the price again. They simply stop production and wait for the market. This is the case in the trading market. The more price reduction, the more wait-and-see, the more we hope to reduce inventory pressure, and the more we can't deliver.
16. June is a weak start, but spot is tight.
1. In terms of cost, the producers with raw material titanium concentrate resources still have room to continue to go down. It only depends on their own comprehensive situation to decide the future market. While other producers have already survived under the cost, further price reduction is just a more difference between loss and loss, such as simply stop production and static digestion of inventory;
2. In terms of inventory, the situation of various manufacturers is different. Some of them are overstocked and strive to realize, while some of them are short of cash. The terminal and its downstream need to wait in line, and there is a possibility of a small range of adverse rise in the future market;
3. In terms of their own characteristics, some representative manufacturers in the industry are involved in the mid year report release, inventory clearing, cash flow protection and other "improvised" programs. In order to hand over satisfactory transcripts, manufacturers are relatively easy to accept negotiations.
To sum up, the price market in June is quite complicated, but the weak start at the beginning of the month is worrying. Although some manufacturers are in short supply, there is still a certain probability that they will have a good future.
17. Ishihara (isk) of Japan announced an increase in the ex warehouse price of titanium dioxide.
Ishihara (isk) of Japan announced to increase the price of titanium dioxide in the Asia Pacific region by US $200 / T from July 1, 2020.
The role of boosting the domestic price market is limited, let alone the turning point of the market.
Firstly, the domestic market share of Shiyuan series products is limited;
Secondly, the market has indeed entered a state of anxiety and stalemate. Some manufacturers have low inventory and good sales, and there is a possibility of a small-scale reverse rise. Ishihara may be one of them;
Third, judging from past experience, the adjustment is flexible and more a transfer of confidence.
18. Market judgment is different, 100 ton order increase.
There are also differences in the judgment of the future market between the carrier and the end customer. Some feel that the market will continue to decline and remain on the sidelines until the end of June; others feel that the time is ripe for prices to start to lay out hoarding, and orders of more than 100 tons in the delivery and trading market will gradually increase.
19. There are reasons for the rapid decline of the market from April to June.
From the weakness of titanium dioxide at the beginning of April to the end of June, the vertical decline of rutile type and anatase type by sulfuric acid process reached 3000 yuan / ton and 2000 yuan / ton, with a range of 19.87% and 17.39%. Taking rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process as an example, the price of rutile titanium dioxide is reduced by 3000 yuan / ton in just three months, with an average of 1000 yuan / ton / month. Such a reduction rate is rare over the years. Of course, there are four key reasons for this phenomenon
① Epidemic situation. The epidemic situation at home and abroad has been "bombed" for several times, the export of titanium dioxide and its downstream products is limited, and the trading volume of cargo holders has shrunk seriously;
② Psychology. The general environment is not good, the delivery pressure of the goods holders is large, and they are eager to complete the task and cash psychological drive, and lack of confidence in the future market;
③ Price war. The low price of goods holders attracts customers and stimulates flexible demand, which has gradually evolved into a serious type of "small profit but quick turnover". The "immortal fight" between large manufacturers is a good example;
④ Raw materials. The main raw material titanium concentrate is also not strong, with the main downstream titanium dioxide market weak and weak, give titanium dioxide a lot of downward space.
20. There is a real reason for the "red" start of the third quarter.
① The price level at the end of June has been at a low level in recent years. The cost line of manufacturers without raw material resources is deadlocked, and even inverted losses have occurred. When the price market goes to June, some manufacturers are not willing to drop again, so it's better to stop production, especially for anatase manufacturers;
② Because the price is too low, the enthusiasm of manufacturers is not high, and some of them have limited production and supply. On the one hand, it can ensure the stable supply of existing customers, on the other hand, it is conducive to push up the market;
③ Large enterprises in Southwest China and central China closed orders and were out of stock, suggesting that other manufacturers were "waiting to rise";
④ In addition to the low price in the early stage, there must be some important information support. To consolidate confidence, there must be several pioneers;
⑤ In recent years, the price adjustment strategy of titanium dioxide is that firstly, a few manufacturers preheat the market, then Longqi sends a letter to confirm the profit, and finally most manufacturers follow up strongly;
⑥ The market of titanium dioxide has been weak for a long time, and the relationship between supply and demand may not be enough to support it, but there are still precedents of strong and hard pull on the supply side. One round is not good, and there are also successful cases in the next few rounds;
⑦ Titanium concentrate, the main raw material, has been frozen and stabilized recently. From the inquiry situation, the miner has no intention of shipping at a low price.
In 21 and July, the first shot of the 7-month price rise was launched.
In recent years, the price adjustment strategy of titanium dioxide is that first a few manufacturers preheat the market, then Longqi sends a letter to confirm the profit, and finally most manufacturers follow up strongly. In the first round, the price rise was 500-600 yuan / ton. There are three main characteristics
① In the early stage, the price of anatase titanium dioxide fell to the limit, the survival pressure on the cost line was huge, and the manufacturers had an urgent demand for the increase;
② The southwest manufacturers represented by haifengxin are the main ones, and the spot market with low price is very tight. It takes about 7-10 days to place an order;
③ Such products as YANTI r-903, longmangbaili lr-108, CITIC titanium cr-210, Panzhihua Steel r-248, haifengxin 616S, etc., which are used in plastics and Color Masterbatch industries, are also hard to find.
22. Rising prices stimulate flexible demand, and commodity holders are in short supply.
From the perspective of price execution of various manufacturers, it basically achieved a small rebound effect after stopping the decline, and also reflected the cumulative recovery of demand for titanium dioxide after the phased victory of epidemic prevention and control in China. Since the middle and late June, channel and terminal stock preparation have basically realized the "warehouse shifting effect", and a series of operations have basically played a role in stimulating flexible demand. The main producers in southwest and central China are almost out of stock, especially those in Southwest China represented by haifengxin. The low price spot market is very tight, and it takes about 7-10 days to place an order.
23. After the first round of price rise, there are three possibilities in the short term.
In the middle and late July, the domestic titanium dioxide trading market cooled slightly, and the channel and terminal demand returned to a stable level, mainly due to the overdraft of July to August or even longer demand due to the stock transfer in June. There are three possibilities in the traditional peak season of "golden nine and silver ten"
① Customers with long-term stock almost have no purchase plan from September to October;
② In September, the customers who have two months' stock just come to a new round of purchasing cycle, but they are more wait-and-see and purchase more on demand;
③ If there is one month's stock up, August or the second round of stock up will submerge the peak season.
To sum up, this "golden nine silver ten" peak season has the risk of weakness, but it will not be worse, or just lack of quality.
However, some mainstream factories are still in short supply, and the prices are determined to keep rising. According to this situation, the prices may continue to rise in August, and the second round of price increase will basically consolidate the results of the first round of price increase. There are still some channels and end customers brewing the second round of goods preparation in August, and the "firepower" is not weak.
24. A brief analysis of the reasons for the sharp increase of titanium dioxide export in the first half of 2020.
According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of titanium dioxide from January to June 2020 was 563100 tons, an increase of 81400 tons compared with 481700 tons in 2019, an increase of 16.9%.
Under the globalization of the new crown epidemic situation, domestic titanium dioxide exports still maintain a strong growth, which is really surprising and surprising. The tight supply of some domestic spot markets has something to do with the 81400 tons of export growth. The main reason is that at the end of the first quarter, the domestic epidemic situation was severe, the manufacturers were pessimistic, the prices fell too fast, and the cost line was difficult to survive. As a result, the manufacturers were forced to reduce the operating rate. In fact, the lower the price, the more favorable it is to export. Therefore, on the one hand, the supply shrinks and on the other hand, the export volume increases greatly, which directly aggravates the domestic spot tension.
In addition to the price factor, the adjustment of strategy is the second important factor for the breakthrough of export volume in the first half of 2020. The strategy adjustment here mainly refers to: due to the impact of the epidemic, the export restriction of the original customer group is a serious potential risk, and the transfer of the customer group has become one of the important strategies. The main transfer direction is to those countries and regions that are relatively less affected by the epidemic. As shown in the figure above, due to the relationship between the two countries and the impact of the epidemic, the export to India has almost stopped at this stage, and the United States and Brazil are the hardest hit areas of the epidemic, so the export situation is not optimistic.
In the second round of price hike in August and August, some local shippers were not confident in the bullish market.
In recent years, most of the manufacturers that have announced the price increase are in the stage of "return" due to the large number of domestic and foreign trade orders in the early stage. For other brands of products, they need to arrange production according to the order situation, which also reflects the urgent demand of these manufacturers for price increase. However, domestic demand has cooled slightly, and the tight supply of some manufacturers is mostly due to export support. It can be said that "the price of Xiaohe is just rising.". In addition, due to the high operating rate and relatively stable shipment, some manufacturers have sufficient stock and stable supply, so they just want to "follow the trend" in the second round of price increase. The unstable demand situation has led to the rise of price wars, especially in South China. The price war is relatively fierce, the competition for the terminal market is fierce, and the prices quoted are lower one by one. It mainly reflects the comprehensive judgment of the market and the lack of confidence in the future market.
Analysis of the main reasons for the second round of price increase in August and June.
An important reason for the rise in prices in August is that some producers are short of cash, while domestic demand is slowing down, and the important support point falls on the export side. According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of titanium dioxide from January to June 2020 was 563100 tons, an increase of 81400 tons compared with 481700 tons in 2019, an increase of 16.9%.
First of all, at the end of the first quarter, the domestic epidemic situation was severe, the manufacturers were pessimistic, the prices fell rapidly, and the cost line was difficult to survive, which forced the manufacturers to reduce the operating rate or even stop production;
Secondly, the adjustment of strategy is the second important factor. The strategy adjustment here mainly refers to: due to the impact of the epidemic, export restriction is a serious potential risk for the original customer group, and the customer group is transferred to those countries and regions that are relatively less affected by the epidemic.
Therefore, on the one hand, the supply is shrinking, on the other hand, the export volume is increasing, which directly aggravates the domestic spot tension.
27. Analysis of the main reasons for the spot shortage in the trading market.
Producers are short of cash, exports are still recovering, and downstream demand is cooling. Where is so much titanium dioxide? Yan Ti industry analyst Yang Xun analyzes the reasons as follows:
① The previous low order is still delivered, and some manufacturers are still in the rhythm of "return goods";
② Foreign trade exports to some regions and countries help manufacturers digest inventory;
③ The effect of warehouse shifting is that part of the inventory of the manufacturer is transferred to the warehouse of the agent and channel;
④ Guarantee some key customers and control the frequency and quantity of channels;
⑤ Manufacturers limit production initiatively to keep the pace of market.
28. The characteristics of off-season in summer are prominent, and the manufacturers arrange orders and supply goods successively.
Plastic and ink industry group demand is relatively good, titanium dioxide spot market shipping more also in these two industries. On the one hand, the terminal demand has cooled down compared with the previous period. On the other hand, manufacturers refuse to offer low prices due to the shortage of spot goods. The main products out of stock are plastic and color masterbatch products, including YANTI r-903, longmangbaili lr-108, CITIC titanium cr-210, Panzhihua Steel r-248, haifengxin r-616s, etc. Some manufacturers give priority to direct customers, followed by traders. Even if the market is tight, they have to wait and wait. Most of the powerful manufacturers take similar measures to control the circulation of channels. When the spot is tight enough, it is natural for them to keep a low profile and keep rising without letter. The supply of spot goods is uneven, and the demand situation is unstable, which leads to the rise of the price war.
29. The manufacturer's spot inventory is polarized, and the shortage of spot is intensified due to weather.
The situation of manufacturers' spot inventory is polarized: some manufacturers' spot inventory positions are relatively normal, and there are no obstacles in production and delivery; the other manufacturers are seriously short of spot inventory. Yang Xun, an analyst of Yan Ti industry, analyzes the reasons as follows:
① Before, the low orders of domestic and foreign trade are still delivered, and some manufacturers are still in the rhythm of "returning goods";
② The effect of warehouse shifting is that part of the manufacturer's inventory is transferred to the agent, channel or terminal warehouse;
③ Limited supply of large customers, control the frequency and quantity of channels;
④ Due to natural reasons, manufacturers actively limit production, actively or passively maintain the pace of market sales.
According to the actual situation, the shortage of spot goods may continue to increase, mainly due to the flood caused by more rain and other reasons. In addition, some debris flow blocked the road. The raw material titanium concentrate and production residue of some manufacturers in Southwest China could not be transported in and out. The operating rate of manufacturers was affected. On the one hand, the export orders were completed, and on the other hand, the domestic demand was met, which aggravated the shortage of spot goods in the market.
30. Analysis of the characteristics of traditional off-season spot trend.
The spot circulation from July to August has one characteristic: the proportion of terminal direct receiving increases, and the spot circulation path shortens. In fact, both manufacturers and first-class agents have the desire and trend to shorten the intermediate links. Especially in this situation of shortage of goods, most of the spot goods are direct to the terminal warehouse point-to-point to ensure the supply of direct terminal customers.
31. In the traditional peak season, manufacturers continued to rise for the third round.
In the first ten days of September, it was almost robbed of the leading role by the price increase letters of more than 30 manufacturers, and the price market returned to the price rise tide of "riding the wind and breaking the waves". The downstream elastic demand may be activated, and some end customers start to stock up in the second round. After the orders are received and unsealed, the price of titanium dioxide in the market is solid, and the increase of 500 yuan / ton is implemented. With the strong return of titanium dioxide price and the firm price of raw and auxiliary materials such as titanium concentrate, manufacturers are under pressure on the one hand, and "push" along with the trend on the other hand. It is also understandable to adjust the agent policy, such as changing the settlement at the end of the month to prepayment at the beginning of the month, which increases the financial pressure of dealers, and the actual orders are more resistant to low prices, so the price hardness is strong.
32, station 9, look at 10, continue to benefit factors.
Sometimes it's not because of how hot the demand is. Before that, the situation of various manufacturers was different. In late September, the vast majority of manufacturers had very tight spot inventory. The export status was good and the priority of shipment was relatively high. In addition, the preparation cycle of the National Day holiday had arrived, and it was hard to find a good product in the terminal market. Some manufacturers had to seal orders before the National Day holiday. The positive factors of the price market are relatively concentrated, and the importance of each factor is relatively high, and the attitude of holding up is relatively firm.
① When fangchuanlong and fangchuanlong enterprises received large orders of 10000 tons of foreign trade, the priority of export orders was relatively high, and the tension of domestic spot market might be intensified. In addition, Sichuan factory was very tense originally, and Hubei factory was also in the routine maintenance cycle. From the situation of spot tension of leading enterprises in the industry, there is still great hope to continue to rise, and the increase trend is increasing;
② The two production lines of Southwest large enterprises were temporarily shut down due to the temporary maintenance of device failure, which made the tense situation of spot market worse;
③ The price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua and Xi'an has been on the rise. This week, Longqi was able to increase by 100 yuan / ton. The neighboring miners immediately followed up, basically forming a "resource tax + Panzhihua steel price increase + miners follow-up" adjustment Troika;
④ The landslide at Yaoheba section of Yaxi Expressway in Sichuan smashed the expressway, which was the only way from Panzhihua to Chengdu. As a result, the transportation freight of finished products was increased and the time was reduced, and the spot market price was high, and the transportation fee was also increased.
33. The inventory center of titanium dioxide moved down.
Just like the weak cycle is that price reduction can not solve the problem of demand, while the strong cycle is that price increase can not solve the problem of supply. Having goods is the king, and the titanium dioxide supply side has recovered its strong position that has been lost for many years.
The main factors leading to the substantial profit of the price market are as follows:
① The export of foreign trade is serious. According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, China's titanium dioxide export volume in August 2020 was 117122.06 tons, a month on month increase of 20.1% and a year-on-year increase of 34.09%; the cumulative titanium dioxide export volume from January to August 2020 was 777705.44 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.27%. It can be seen from the above data that the increase in export volume is mainly concentrated in some large manufacturers such as LOMON BILLIONS. In the long run, with the increase of industrial concentration, the export pattern will change, which is also an important reason for the continuous tension in the domestic spot market;
② When LOMON & Billions received ten thousand ton foreign trade orders, the priority of export orders was relatively high. Most of the domestic spot goods were taken away, and then the tense situation might aggravate. In addition, the spot goods of Sichuan factory were very tense originally, and Hubei factory was also in the routine maintenance cycle. Judging from the tense situation of the spot goods of the leading enterprises in the industry, there was still great hope to continue to rise, and the rising trend was increasing;
③ The two production lines of Southwest large enterprises were temporarily shut down due to the temporary maintenance of device failure, which made the tense situation of spot market worse;
④ The price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua and Panzhihua Xichang regions has been on the rise. After Lomon's efforts to increase 100 yuan / ton, the prices of other miners have been rising one after another. Some miners reported that the spot of titanium middlings is extremely scarce, and the operation rate of concentrate producers can not be improved. It is possible to continue to explore the rise in the future, which "complements" the interest of the main downstream titanium dioxide;
⑤ The landslide at Yaoheba section of Yaxi Expressway in Sichuan smashed the expressway, which was the only way from Panzhihua to Chengdu. As a result, the transportation freight of finished products was increased and the time was reduced, and the spot market price was high, and the transportation fee was also increased.
34. There are five unknowns in the fourth quarter.
In the peak season of Yinshi, the manufacturers rose by 1000 yuan and resisted the orders owed. After the completion of foreign trade order delivery, the tense situation of domestic market spot may be gradually eased. According to the understanding, the time point may be in the middle and late November. In the spot market, there are also some traders who can't get the goods out of the market. When the time is right and the price is right, these traders may focus on selling goods and add traditional price factors, which will bring more uncertainty to the price market in December.
① Performance impulse;
② Return of funds;
③ Repayment of business loans;
④ Selling by the goods holder;
⑤ Christmas.
There are five Unknowns at the end of Q4 (the fourth quarter) in 2020. Once the supply side spot supply increases, the "internal circulation" price market may gradually appear flexible operation.
In addition, there has been a rule in the titanium dioxide market for many years. Anatase is almost the wind vane of the price market. In general, once the shipment of anatase turns weak, rutile will follow.
35. Sell goods + destroy orders, titanium dioxide may have "colored eggs" in the future.
In the spot market, some traders have begun to sell a small amount of goods. However, this time, the tense situation of factory spot goods has lasted for a long time, and the number of goods that can be sold by the holders is very limited. From the market situation, there is little resistance to the strong advantage of the weak. First, the shortage of goods has not been eased completely. Second, the price market remains strong. On the contrary, a few manufacturers have orders destroyed, including exports, agents and terminals. In fact, the manufacturers are also very helpless. The prices of raw and auxiliary materials such as titanium concentrate are soaring, the production costs are high, and no one is willing to do the loss business in the upstream channel. But at the same time, it also reflects the full confidence of these manufacturers in the future market, because if the market only goes up to the present level, they will never destroy orders or hurt customers, and there may be "eggs" behind them.
36. Analysis of the main reasons for the expected rise in November.
October is not over yet, and the sound of warming up for November is strong. The price rising tide is coming ahead of time, ranging from 800 to 1200 yuan / ton. This wave of increase is unprecedented and full of momentum. We analyzed the main reasons for this wave of price rise as follows:
① There is a huge amount of foreign trade. According to the statistical data provided by the General Administration of customs, the cumulative export volume of titanium dioxide from January to September 2020 is 889540.01 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.98%. It is believed that under the epidemic situation in 2020, China's export volume of titanium dioxide will reach an unprecedented high, with an estimated output of nearly 1.2 million tons, accounting for 37.3% of the total output of 3.18 million tons in 2019. All manufacturers still focus on export delivery, and the domestic delivery volume is very small in the fourth quarter of 2020. Some manufacturers have completed the annual task volume even if they do not receive domestic orders in the next November to December.
② In recent years, the market of titanium concentrate, an important raw material, has been icing on the cake with little timely help. The price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate increased from 1150 yuan / ton in the first ten days of June to 1950 yuan / ton in the end of October (the above prices do not include tax), with an increase of 69.57%. From the perspective of the main material titanium concentrate, the cost of titanium dioxide increased by 2000 yuan / ton, and it jumped by 400 yuan / ton in the near future, As a result, the cost of titanium dioxide soared by 1000 yuan / ton. From this point of view, this jump of 1000 yuan is really helpless. It is just suffering from the previous low price and undelivered domestic and foreign trade orders.
37. There is no worry about receiving orders in November, and some spot goods are still tight.
The orders received by the manufacturers and dealers are relatively smooth. The domestic and foreign trade of a manufacturer in East China received the orders in February, and the orders in 2020 are not worried. Moreover, the strong state of the supply side is obvious, and it is resistant to the orders with low price and accounting period. The spot market is still tight. Some factories have to wait 7-10 days to deliver the goods. On the one hand, the orders at home and abroad are really full, and on the other hand, the control of manufacturers' operating rate is reduced. In addition, due to the rebound of the international epidemic, the European countries were closed again, and the sea freight suddenly rose, which had a certain impact on the export of titanium dioxide to Europe. However, according to the previous experience of sealing countries, the impact may be only a short-term effect, but the price of freight allowance is too high, and the acceptance of international customers is low. Once the order volume drops, the export demand in the future may have a risk of decline.
38. The time difference between order and delivery keeps titanium dioxide strong.
Fangchuan large enterprises have a routine maintenance plan in the short term, the operating rate is declining, and the supply side or the spot is in a tight state. A small number of manufacturers in East China only give dealers 50-60% of the regular shipment volume. The price of titanium dioxide has gone up, but the goods have not increased. On the contrary, the goods holders dare not advance the future "futures" when they are out of stock. According to the estimated range, the quotation can only leave room. If the customers do not accept the higher price, they will lose money when the price is lower. After several rounds of price increases since July, there are some problems now Fatigue, and a sense of weakness caused by out of stock.
39. In the traditional off-season, anatase's order taking slowed down.
In November, there was one feature in the order receiving situation of some shippers: anatase could not be sold out and rutile could not be sold enough. Rutile type orders completed a few, while anatase type is relatively slow. Even so, anatase type manufacturers still have low inventory positions, especially rutile type manufacturers. So if we only look at the situation of the supply side, the order holders have no worries, and the market does not have the conditions to weaken for the time being. It's just a long-span increase. It's hard for the terminal market to accept. After all, it's traditional In the off-season environment, domestic demand shrank slightly.
40. Lomo's routine maintenance, shortage or aggravation.
Rumor has it that large enterprises in Southwest China had a routine maintenance plan in December. The main brands were seriously out of stock, but now it's even worse. In addition, manufacturers in East China and other regions also have the initiative to reduce the operating rate due to environmental protection and other reasons. The tense situation in the domestic spot market may aggravate again, and now having goods is the biggest advantage. This is also one of the important reasons why the price market continues to be strong.
41. "Double circulation" of domestic and foreign manufacturers rose.
With the year's end approaching in December, the last wave of price increase in 2020 will come as scheduled. Domestic producers include: Lomon Billions, CITIC, Pangang and some of them have gone up without letter. Nearly 20 producers have announced an increase of 500-1000 yuan / ton; foreign producers include chemours, Kronos, tronox, Venator, etc The manufacturer announced a rise of US $100-150 / T, which truly realized the full rise mode in the second half of the year since July, and also realized the synchronous "double cycle" of the rising price tide of titanium dioxide at home and abroad.
42. The "three pillars" will promote the full increase in the second half of 2020.
The reason why the actual price of the market has been rising for such a long time is nothing more than the "tripartite confrontation" of large export volume, low operating rate and high price of raw material titanium concentrate. The above three points are also the fundamental reasons for the serious tension in the domestic spot market and the price rise for several times. Based on the current situation, more people are concerned about the price trend at the beginning of 2021. According to the orders received by various manufacturers, although the anatase market is gradually weakening, the rutile market remains in hot demand and continues to rise, maintaining the pulling and driving effect on the anatase price market. In January, it may continue to be strong and strong, catching up with the unprecedented record of the annual rise in 2016.
43. The producer's spot supply is polarized, and the price execution is different.
The polarization of manufacturers: the shortage of spot goods, the confusion of real market price, the difficulty of large enterprises to get one product, which makes the terminal price rise again and again, the price hardness is strong and strong, and the routine maintenance and export inclination of the main manufacturers are the main reasons; the shortage of spot goods is relatively better, but the manufacturers cater to the big ring by controlling the operating rate, maintaining the flow and supply The price is relatively moderate.
44. The terminal market has been weak in response to high prices.
In the second half of 2020, the price market is rising. Titanium dioxide has been rising for such a long time, and the end users are tired. Anyway, the price is very high. Just wait and see, set the production according to the sales, and purchase according to the production needs. By the end of the year, cash was king, and it was unnecessary to hoard so many raw materials to occupy funds. The trading market was slightly lukewarm. At the same time, the acceptance of the terminal market was slightly weakened, and the pace of shipment was intermittent.
45. The effect of Guangzhou International Coatings exhibition is far from expected.
This is Guangzhou International Coatings exhibition 2020. Due to the global epidemic, although there are relatively few international exhibitors and visitors, people in the domestic titanium dioxide industry generally pay more attention to this exhibition. Although the actual effect is far from the expected, at least it is beneficial to enhance the horizontal interaction within the industry as an industry gathering. Manufacturers discuss and study the market, cost and inventory. For the short-term future price trend, we should infiltrate each other to see if there is a consensus on cooperation on some interest points. Traders should see who has goods in hand, the market is in the upward channel, how much space will continue to go up in the future, how to deal with the shortage of spot goods, and whether the traders and downstream users are ready to cooperate immediately In order to prepare the goods, we all expect to have expectations and preparations.
46. The off-season is obvious, and the manufacturers "stabilize the market by rising".
In the off-season, due to the high price, the domestic demand enthusiasm has dropped. In addition, foreign Christmas is coming, the export orders have decreased. Moreover, the ex factory price plus Shanghai freight is almost the same as the foreign titanium dioxide price. In addition, the appreciation of RMB also has a certain impact on the export orders. Before and after the Spring Festival in 2021, the stock of each manufacturer's stock tends to increase. Most manufacturers evaluate their prices based on their own inventory situation. In the short term, the market may consolidate the market pattern by "rising with stabilizing".
47. Manufacturers are willing to continue to rise.
By the end of the year, the holders were mainly collecting money, supplemented by sales of new orders, which led to a slight decline in the relative trading volume of the trading market, and new orders were mainly cash. At the same time, the price trend has also reached the key node, and the manufacturers are still willing to continue to rise. On the one hand, they use the market to stimulate the channel providers and terminals to actively take goods and maintain high-frequency goods circulation; on the other hand, when the previous low-cost raw material titanium concentrate contract expires, signing the order again is already high price, which is boosted by the cost; third, the terminal has resisted the high price, even if the market callback, at least the starting point Finally, it made a good start to the market in 2021.
