Taking the rutile Titanium Dioxide produced by sulfuric ACID process with large volume in the domestic market as an example, the overall average price of titanium dioxide in 2020 (January 1-december 30) is mainly in a "n" shape, with an increase of 18% from 15000 yuan / T at the beginning of the year to 17700 yuan / T at the end of the year. The lowest price is 12800 yuan / T at the end of June, and the highest price is 17700 yuan / T at the end of December, with a vertical amplitude of 38.28%.
2、 Overview of 2020
On the whole, the price of titanium dioxide in 2020 presents a "n" shaped trend, with the inertia rising period from January to March, the panic falling period from April to June, and the comprehensive positive reverse rising period from July to December.
From January to March, the inertia of titanium dioxide continued to rise in 2019, and the cost of raw materials such as titanium concentrate boosted each producer to increase by 500 yuan / ton. In March, the domestic epidemic eased, the foreign epidemic spread, the export of goods holders was not smooth, and a few producers had declined;
From April to June, driven by the epidemic situation and panic psychology, the shipping price of titanium dioxide dropped rapidly by about 3000 yuan / ton, which is rare in recent years. Some manufacturers have made losses and actively reduced production. The supply side contraction led to the shortage of spot goods. The price bottomed out at the end of June and reached the lowest point in 2020;
From July to December, domestic demand rebounded and there were many low-cost export orders. Since July, the price of titanium dioxide began to rise for half a year. The market average price has increased by nearly 5000 yuan / ton, up 38.28%, and the biggest increase in a single month is 1500 yuan / ton, which is rare in recent years, and at the same time, it has reached a very high price in 2020.
3、 The positive and negative factors affecting the price of titanium dioxide
1. There are four main reasons for the success of the new year.
From 2019 to 2020, the price of titanium dioxide market ushered in the first rise of 2020, including CITIC titanium industry, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., haifengxin, tihai technology, Wuhan Fangyuan, etc., with the highest increase of 300-2000 yuan / ton. Yan Ti Ti industry analysts believe that there are three reasons for this small-scale price increase: first, domestic and foreign double section stock; second, spot supply contraction; third, domestic logistics outage earlier, and the closer to the Spring Festival, the higher the freight, the lower the transportation efficiency; fourth, raw material titanium concentrate high continuous rise and spot tension. Off season is not light is the main feature of this period.
2. Both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise.
Due to the epidemic situation, there are many processes for manufacturers and traders to return to work after the festival, few front-line transport drivers and high logistics freight. Longqi's quotation rose by 500-800 yuan / ton for the first time. Together with the simultaneous announcement by international giant Venator that the Asia Pacific region will increase by US $120 / ton from March 1, the domestic and foreign dual channels have been opened, and the market has played a significant role in boosting.
3. At the end of February, there are two outstanding characteristics of the trading market.
Taking East China as an example, there are two main characteristics: the demand needs to be activated and the market price is chaotic.
Demand needs to be activated: the terminal market returns to work in a large area, but the operating rate needs to be improved. This is mainly because most of the front-line workers have not fully arrived at their posts, some of them are isolated in their hometown in a regional way, and some of them have been isolated for less than 14 days. It is expected that the operating rate will be increased in a large area in early March;
Market price confusion: it is precisely because the downstream operation rate is not high, in the face of only inquiries and orders, a small number of goods holders have lowered their acceptable price bottom line, some major manufacturers have issued orders based on local leather price, and the price difference of the same brand of products is as high as 500 yuan / ton.
4. Titanium dioxide is classified as two kinds of suspected carcinogens in European Union.
On February 18, the European Union classified titanium dioxide as a class 2 suspected carcinogen by inhalation. Yan titanium industry analyst Yang Xun said: the event has little impact on China's titanium dioxide market, do not exaggerate, and do not need to think too much, there are four reasons.
First, the transition period of this matter will be September 2021, and there will be more than a year to prepare for our manufacturers and customers. Even if it is implemented, it will be instantaneous;
Second, only when a large amount of titanium dioxide particles are inhaled, it is possible to damage lung organs and cause cancer risk. However, in the actual operation and application process, this kind of large amount of inhalation almost does not exist;
Third, up to now, no other industrial raw materials can completely replace titanium dioxide, so what should be used still needs to be used;
Four titanium dioxide customers can not refuse the huge short-term cost-effectiveness.
5. Analysis of titanium dioxide export data in 2019.
According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of titanium dioxide in China in 2019 was 1.035 million tons, with an unprecedented breakthrough of 1 million tons for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 10.52%. The export volume of titanium dioxide in China still ranks first in the world and will continue to grow in the future.
From the perspective of China's titanium dioxide export target countries in 2019:
First, India's export volume was 126915 tons, accounting for 13% of the total export volume;
Second, Brazil, with an export volume of 726.23 million tons, accounting for 7% of the total export volume;
Third, South Korea, with export volume of 626.33 million tons, accounting for 6% of the total export volume;
In March, Iran, Italy and Japan ranked ninth, 13th and 32nd among the countries with relatively severe new crown disease, with export volume of 2682900 tons, 2241100 tons and 905400 tons respectively. South Korea, Iran, Italy and Japan exported 12092700 tons of titanium dioxide, accounting for 12.05% of the total export volume.
In the short run, the epidemic has certain impact and risk on the export of titanium dioxide. Strategic transfer of target exporting countries and elastic recovery of domestic demand will be the important release trend of this part of production capacity.
6. The international epidemic situation is severe, and titanium dioxide export has little impact.
Among the target countries of China's titanium dioxide export in 2019, Italy, Iran, Spain, Germany, South Korea, France and the United States are the top countries with relatively severe epidemic situation in mid March, with a total export volume of 18089507 tons, accounting for 17.95% of the total export volume. In particular, India has been closed for 21 days since 00:00 on March 25, and ships arriving at the port need to be quarantined for 14 days. Among the target countries of titanium dioxide export in 2019, India ranks first, reaching 126900 tons, which has a certain impact on the import and export of titanium dioxide and titanium ore.
Only from the data, this 244371203 million tons of titanium dioxide need to be completely digested by the domestic market. It is indeed a great pressure. The manufacturers have to reduce the operating rate to reduce the inventory pressure, which is pushed up to the compression of the demand for titanium concentrate, and the real price goes down, until the industry chain is covered with bad news. But the reality is not so sad. First of all, the current severe epidemic situation is not unable to get out at all, but the demand is discounted. Second, the epidemic situation is only temporary, with the end of the epidemic, the demand side of the above countries will soon enter the pace of advance procurement, which will be the return of explosive demand. Third, in this difficult time, domestic exporters are actively developing other products Finally, the domestic demand is the growth point that can not be ignored. The above four points can alleviate the export pressure to a great extent. There is no need to worry too much. The export market in 2020 will be a balanced development on a global scale.
In addition, there will always be a time lag in the transportation of goods, and the events and orders will also lag behind. It is expected that after the end of March, the demand of the target countries with severe epidemic situation may shrink until the end of the epidemic situation. During this period, the production capacity needs to be digested by other countries and the domestic market. At first, the manufacturers may reduce the operating rate to adjust the supply. With the further development of demand in other countries and the epidemic situation Strictly control, the export volume of titanium dioxide will continue to maintain rapid growth.
