1、 Market analysis
In July, the price of Titanium Dioxide was stable after rising. At the beginning of July, nearly 30 manufacturers announced the price rise, and each manufacturer was flexible in holding the price rise, but basically realized the effect of stopping the decline and rebounding slightly. A large-scale manufacturer in Southwest China has a low-key and dark rise, and no letter directly drives up 500 yuan / ton. The main reason is that there are many orders for main brands of products, and the spot supply is tight, so the agents are only limited to meet the task quantity. In addition, some manufacturers are still in the state of production restriction due to various reasons. They only produce the main brands of products with low start-up and operation, and have almost no inventory. The products of surrounding brands are obviously tight and the prices are high. There are not a few manufacturers in this kind of situation, so from the perspective of supply side, August is qualified to continue to be profitable.
The enthusiasm for trading in the middle and late July has gradually cooled down, and the number of orders received by manufacturers and dealers has decreased slightly. It is obvious that the transfer order before the price rise has activated the elastic demand and overdraw the rigid demand. When the inventory is exhausted, the rigid demand will certainly restart. Some cargo holders are more concerned about the future price trend, and more worried that the market may fall in August. Looking at the price trend in recent years, the price of titanium dioxide still pays attention to a continuity, there is no "ECG" trend of jumping up and down in a short period of time, so according to experience, the price of titanium dioxide in the future may be more favorable in the short term.
According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of titanium dioxide from January to June 2020 is 563100 tons, which is 81400 tons higher than 481700 tons in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9%.
Under the situation of globalization of 2019-nCoV situation, domestic titanium dioxide export still maintains a strong growth, which is indeed surprising and surprising. The shortage of goods in some domestic spot markets is closely related to the 81400 tons of export growth. The most important reason is that at the end of the first quarter, the domestic epidemic situation was severe, the manufacturers were pessimistic, the price fell too fast, and the cost line was difficult to survive, which led to the manufacturers being forced to reduce the operating rate. In fact, the lower the price, the more conducive to exports. Therefore, on the one hand, supply contraction, on the other hand, the export volume increased greatly, which directly exacerbated the domestic spot tension.
Besides the price factor, the adjustment of strategy is the second important factor for the breakthrough of export volume in the first half of 2020. The strategy adjustment here mainly refers to: due to the influence of the epidemic situation, the export restriction of the original customer group is a serious potential risk, and the transfer of the customer group has become one of the important strategies, and the main direction of the transfer is to those countries and regions which are relatively less affected by the epidemic situation. According to the statistics of export target countries in 2019, due to the relationship between the two countries and the impact of the epidemic situation, exports to India have almost stopped at this stage. The United States and Brazil are the worst hit areas of the epidemic, and the export situation is not optimistic.
At present, the mainstream prices of rutile and anatase titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric ACID process are USD1950-2200/ ton and USD1560-1800/ MT, while the mainstream prices of domestic and imported chlorinated rutile titanium dioxide are USD2600-3000/MT and USD3450-4200/MT .
2、 Future forecast
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide price market rose steadily, we believes: the export volume has increased greatly, each manufacturer's spot, inventory situation has varying degrees of tension, the actual price of the carrier is firm. Compared with the previous period, the demand side has been somewhat cold, and the relationship between supply and demand is not enough to support the firmness of the future market. However, whether it is a big increase in exports or a contraction in supply, the strong pull on the supply side is also a "must kill" technique that manufacturers have tried repeatedly. In the short term, the price quoted by the holder is strong, and the balance of the future market is more favorable. The actual transaction price is a single discussion.
