Raw material prices drive DOP to reach a high point within the year in the third quarter
October 25, 2023
Introduction: In the third quarter, the DOP market showed an upward trend, with the average price of the sample market at 11124 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.71% month on month; The average gross profit margin of the sample market is at the level of -0.35%; In the third quarter, the production decreased by 8.89% month on month and increased by 9% year-on-year.
1、 Octanol maintenance busy DOP price follows the rise
From July to September, 7 sets of devices in the octanol market reported maintenance news. Under the tightening of supply, octanol prices drove up DOP prices, with octanol and DOP reaching high levels of 12800 yuan/ton and 12100 yuan/ton respectively. The overall operating range was "elevated", but downstream market costs were difficult to pass on. The weak demand for DOP began to reverse the price trend, and merchants reduced prices to ship, releasing the pressure of National Day Day holiday ahead of schedule. Therefore, the market changed significantly in the third quarter, The average market price is 11124 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 12.71%.
2、 Difficult to generate profits in the DOP market, with production declining month on month
The supply of octanol tightened in the third quarter, and prices surged to the highest level within the year. Although the DOP market prices have followed up, it is difficult for prices to fully follow the raw material range, especially in September when the market performance was significant, with a long time of losses and a large amount of losses. The average gross profit of the sample market is at -40 yuan/ton.
However, the decline in market profitability and the tightening of octanol supply have led to a decrease in DOP market production. In the third quarter, 12 production lines of DOP were shut down. In the third quarter, DOP production was 320800 tons, a decrease of 8.89% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 9%. The average capacity utilization rate was at 55%, a decrease of 9 percentage points month on month.
3、 Insufficient terminal orders and weak demand support
The order situation of end users in the third quarter decreased month on month. Faced with high price DOP, buying performance continued to maintain a pace of just demand, and its high costs were also difficult to pass down. The DOP market continued to lack demand support. In addition, due to high domestic prices, the price advantage weakened, and the export quantity slightly decreased. The known export volume in July and August decreased by 21.88% and 12.35% month on month, respectively. It is estimated that the export volume in the third quarter is around 16000.
4、 Q4 DOP Industry Forecast
The octanol maintenance equipment gradually returned to normal in the fourth quarter, with an increasing trend in production. With abundant raw materials, there is an expected increase in DOP production. It is expected that the quarterly production will be at the level of 340000 tons, while the import volume will continue to maintain a low level. However, the consumption level of end users in the fourth quarter may not have a significant improvement, and there is still weak demand support in the market. It is expected that the overall price will shift downward.
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