Brief analysis of future demand for glacial acetic acid
February 19, 2023
The domestic demand for Glacial Acetic Acid will increase slightly from 2023 to 2025. From the perspective of new downstream products in the future, the growth of PTA demand will slow down. However, while the industry is developing towards integration and large capacity, the product is expected to have overcapacity again, and some enterprises will inevitably be eliminated.
Acetate itself is a product with overcapacity. At present, the operating rate of enterprises is deliberately low, and the profit margin of products, especially ethyl acetate, is not large, so it is difficult to attract the attention of investors. In addition, the application of acetate as a solvent in the paint industry has no prospects for development, because at present it advocates green and environmentally friendly water-based coatings. In the future, the new news of domestic acetate is limited.
There are many new news about vinyl acetate in the future, which will be put into production in 2023. Due to the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in recent years, the new production capacity of downstream EVA is significantly released, resulting in a good future development prospect of vinyl acetate. The new news of the ethylene process plant is concentrated, and the Wanwei carbide process is changed to the ethylene process. Therefore, for the demand of Acetic Acid, vinyl acetate is a relatively obvious growth point.
Chloroacetic ACID and diethylene ketone are limited in the future. The current overcapacity of chloroacetic acid is obvious, and Hubei Minteng's 240000 t/a new unit will be put into operation after completion. In addition, due to the chlorine consumption of chlor-alkali enterprises in the previous few years, the product competition is strong, resulting in limited product profitability, so few new units will be added in the future. Due to overcapacity and environmental protection, there will not be many new ketene in the future.
There are many new units for acetic anhydride in recent years, but in the future, some of the new units will be downstream extension projects of acetic acid enterprises, and acetic anhydride is a niche product and a precursor product, subject to strict control and limited demand growth and other factors, so there is little new information for acetic anhydride in the future.
However, it is worth noting that the development of new downstream processes of glacial acetic acid, such as the production of caprolactam from acetic acid and MMA from acetic acid. And with the fall of acetic acid price, the project of acetic acid ester to ethanol also has the conditions for operation, and the profit space is rich. Therefore, the development of other downstream industries in the future is also the focus of the acetic acid industry.
With regard to the export of glacial acetic acid in the future, the current export volume of glacial acetic acid in China has exceeded one million tons. However, since the production of glacial acetic acid plant in Guangxi, the export of glacial acetic acid in China is more proactive, and the export of glacial acetic acid in South China has transportation advantages. However, price and force majeure of international devices are also major factors. In addition, the new installation of 1.3 million tons/year in the United States is planned to be completed in 2023, which is expected to affect the export of domestic glacial acetic acid to Europe.
In comprehensive consideration of the development of domestic demand for glacial acetic acid in the future and the uncertainty of the export level, the new demand for glacial acetic acid in 2023 will be concentrated on PTA and vinyl acetate, and the new demand in the future will need to focus on the development of new downstream, so the future demand will grow slowly.
