Recently, the price of Glacial Acetic Acid in China has been rising rapidly. Since the beginning of December, the market has increased by 900-1600 yuan / ton. From the price trend chart of previous years, we can see that the current average price in East China is 5225 yuan / ton, which is close to the peak of 2018 (the average price in East China in June is 5560 yuan / ton). Many companies compare the market in 2018 with the current market, but there are differences between the two factors
Price: in 2018, the lowest price is 3550 yuan / ton at the end of December, the highest price is 5560 yuan / ton in June, and the high and low fluctuation range is 2010 yuan / ton; in 2020, the lowest price is 1970 yuan / ton at the beginning of April; the current highest price is 5225 yuan / ton; the high and low fluctuation range is 3255 yuan / ton. Note: take the average price of East China market as an example.
Export: in 2018, the total domestic exports of glacial Acetic Acid reached 709700 tons, a record high, of which the monthly exports in July reached 145500 tons, the highest in history. First, due to the rapid economic development in India, there are many new downstream devices in recent years, so the demand for acetic ACID has increased significantly. However, the acetic acid plant in India is limited, so the import of goods is bound to increase greatly; second, the acetic acid plant failure in Europe and America from April to July led to the shortage of goods in Europe and America, and the price hit a high level. Among them, the price in the United States reached a 13 year high, while that in Europe reached a seven-year high. Therefore, it is conducive to the inflow of imported goods.
The total domestic glacial acetic acid export in 2020 is estimated to be 402400 tons, with a monthly average of about 30000 tons, even lower than the level in 2017.
Domestic demand: we compare the downstream demand changes in 2018 and 2020, and see PTA, vinyl acetate, chloroacetic acid, acetic anhydride and non grain ethanol in Figure 2.
In 2020, there will be more PTA new production units, with a total of 10.9 million tons, and the PTA operation rate will be higher in the year, which is basically more than 80%. Therefore, the main demand for acetic acid is larger, and PTA has less unit consumption of acetic acid, so it is not sensitive to the rise and fall of acetic acid price. However, the proportion of PTA demand for acetic acid has expanded to more than 30%, becoming the largest demand for glacial acetic acid.
The demand for vinyl acetate increased in the second half of the year. As the waterproof of building materials recovered rapidly in the second half of the year, and the downstream demand for EVA and PVA was strong, the load of vinyl acetate increased significantly in the second half of the year. The demand for chloroacetic acid increased during the year. Due to the existence of some new units and the adjustment of industrial structure in previous years, the current start-up units are mainly downstream cogeneration units or large-scale units. Therefore, the operation rate of chloroacetic acid is relatively stable and the demand for acetic acid is very stable. Because of the high price of acetic acid and the low price of ethanol in 2018, non grain ethanol has no profit margin and the plant is not running. However, due to the impact of the epidemic this year, the price of ethanol continues to be high, the price of anhydrous ethanol is even stronger, while the price of acetic acid is relatively low, and the profit margin of non grain ethanol is extremely rich. Therefore, non grain ethanol operates normally this year.
However, the demand for ethyl acetate, diketene, butyl acetate, glycine and SEC butyl acetate decreased, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic situation in the year, acetate exports were impacted, and domestic demand also decreased significantly, so the output decreased and the demand for raw acetic acid decreased significantly. The impact of the epidemic was mainly reflected in the first half of the year. Although the demand improved significantly in the second half of the year, it was still difficult to make up for the loss of the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year.
On the whole, compared with the two years, the apparent consumption has increased significantly, and the estimated consumption in 2020 is about 12.02% higher than that in 2018.
Supply side: according to the data, the domestic production of glacial acetic acid will be 7.57 million tons in 2018 and 8.02 million tons in 2020, an increase of about 6.04%.
On the whole, the high domestic glacial acetic acid price in 2018 was mainly driven by export support, while in 2020 it was caused by the reversal of supply and demand. With the increase of domestic demand and the rebound of demand after the epidemic, and after the adjustment of the industrial structure of downstream products in previous years, the products were in standard operation, so the level of rigid demand for glacial acetic acid increased significantly this year. However, the increase of glacial acetic acid supply is limited. This year, only 150000 tons of glacial acetic acid will be extended. Therefore, although the export of glacial acetic acid is not brilliant at present, under the strong domestic demand, the tight market will continue.
