Through the comparison of PVC price data from 2018 to 2021, it is found that although the PVC price in 2021 hit a historic high under the influence of factors such as energy control, abnormal foreign devices and tight supply of goods, at the end of the year, the PVC price gradually approached the normal level and returned to the era of 8000 yuan. Up to now, positive and negative factors still coexist. Under the game between the two sides, the negative factor is slightly dominant, and the PVC market remains weak and volatile. Positive: Although the price of calcium carbide has decreased, there is still some support on the cost side when the price of PVC has fallen; The export situation is good, which has a certain support for the domestic market. Bad: the product terminal has entered the off-season at the end of the year, and there are still signs of further decline in demand in the future; PVC enterprises started steadily, and the supply is still expected to increase. In addition, the pre-sale performance of enterprises is poor and the price support is weak; The trading atmosphere in the market is poor, mainly making profit and shipping. In addition, the trend of PVC futures is still weak, which has a certain negative impact on the market. Generally speaking, there is still room for further decline in the PVC market in the short term, and it is even possible to fall below 8000 yuan. However, considering the cost, Spring Festival holidays and other factors, it is expected that it is more likely to maintain shock operation after the decline. The specific analysis is as follows:
1. The start-up of PVC enterprises is OK, and the supply side is expected to improve
From the perspective of commencement, as of December 23, some domestic PVC enterprises had been overhauled, and the overall commencement rate of PVC enterprises fell, with the overall commencement rate of about 75.88%. It is understood that there are few maintenance of PVC enterprises in the later stage, and the commencement of the overall enterprise will be expected to improve again.
2. Inventory increases and accumulated inventory is expected to increase
In terms of inventory, as of December 24, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the social inventory in East and South China was about 133700 tons, an increase of 2.85% month on month.
As of December 27, the inventory of domestic PVC production enterprises continued to increase, about 96000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.07%.
3. Poor demand, average receiving strength
In terms of downstream demand, under the pressure of national policies such as environmental protection and profits, the start-up of domestic downstream product enterprises is still not high, ranging from 20% to 70%, and some downstream product enterprises are still in shutdown. In addition, the current demand is in the off-season, the downstream product enterprises generally receive goods, and the raw material inventory is not high, so they mainly keep buying with use.
4. Profits hover around the zero line, and PVC costs are supported to a certain extent
In terms of cost and profit, the price of raw calcium carbide has remained stable after the recent decline, while the price of PVC has weakened continuously, and the profit of PVC enterprises has been shrinking, basically hovering around the 0 line. As of December 27, the profit of Northwest calcium carbide PVC production enterprise is estimated to be about 500-100 yuan / ton.
5. The export situation is good and share the domestic supply
In terms of export, by comparing the monthly export volume from 2020 to 2021, the monthly export volume of PVC in 2021 was higher than that in the same period last year, mainly due to the extreme shortage of foreign supply in 2021, China's export ushered in the spring, and the export volume increased significantly. Before the draft, the monthly export volume of PVC in November was about 114800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%.
