In the fourth quarter of this year, the price of Carbon Black fell from the high point in early December after a wave of sharp rise. Carbon black price negotiations are currently in a stalemate. Tire enterprises generally expect that carbon black prices will continue to decline in the future. Carbon black enterprises do not reduce prices because their inventory is not too high. Mainstream tire manufacturers suspended new order negotiations and mainly digested carbon black inventory.
At present, the expansion of carbon black enterprises is surging, the downstream demand growth is limited, and the later price trend may continue to fall. It is reported that the new carbon black production capacity of Jinneng technology is twice the original production capacity. Carbon black enterprises such as black cat Co., Ltd. and Yongdong Co., Ltd. expand production capacity and enhance competitiveness in the field of high-end carbon black.
Carbon black prices rose and fell
In the fourth quarter, carbon black prices hit a new high in this round of rebound. According to the data, the price of carbon black rose to 8000 yuan in the first half of the year from 4100 yuan per ton in June last year. After adjustment in the third quarter, a new round of rise began in mid September and rose to 9200-9300 yuan by the end of November, with a new wave of increase of about 15%.
In December, the price of carbon black fell due to the decline of raw material prices, sluggish downstream demand and other factors. On December 14, the quotation of carbon black in Shandong was between 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the higher point decreased by 400-500 yuan / ton.
Coal tar accounts for the largest proportion of carbon black raw materials, up to 49.2%; The second is anthracene oil, accounting for 34.2%. The price of domestic high-temperature coal tar in mainstream areas has fallen sharply, the overall price of coal tar has fallen sharply compared with the previous period, and the auction price of domestic high-temperature coal tar continues to decline. At present, the mainstream transaction price in Shanxi has fallen to around 4600 yuan / ton from 5000 yuan / ton in mid November.
From the downstream, the overall operation of tire enterprises is temporarily stable, but the tire inventory of mainstream manufacturers has increased. At present, the tire matching market is affected by the supply chain, the peak season is not prosperous, and the production and sales data are much lower than that in the same period of previous years; The replacement market is in the traditional off-season, and market shipments slow down. In the downstream of carbon black, tires account for 67%, other rubber products account for 23%, and non rubber products account for 10%.
For the performance of carbon black enterprises in 2021, in the first half of this year, carbon black enterprises made huge profits, with a ton profit of about 2000 yuan, a slight loss in the third quarter, and a ton profit of 120-160 yuan so far in the fourth quarter.
Future carbon black prices may fluctuate downward
For the price trend of carbon black in 2022, from the perspective of supply and demand, the new capacity of carbon black is large, the demand growth is limited, and the future price of carbon black is under pressure. With the change of supply-demand relationship, the carbon black price is expected to change from cost support driven to supply-demand driven. It is expected that the carbon black market price will first fall, then rise and then fall in 2022, and the price focus will move downward compared with 2021.
From the supply side, the capacity of carbon black under construction is large. According to statistics, the national carbon black production capacity is about 7.69 million tons in 2019. It is estimated that China's carbon black production capacity will reach 8.2 million tons in 2021. According to statistics, the domestic carbon black production capacity will increase by 1.5 million tons in the next five years.
It is reported that the original carbon black capacity of Jinneng technology is 240000 tons, and the new capacity of 480000 tons of Qingdao plant has been put into operation. The relevant person in charge of the company said that if all the new production capacity is invested in the market, it will have a great impact on the market, and the company will adjust the output according to the market supply and demand.
The demand is not very optimistic. The data of the main downstream tire industry of carbon black show that in 2021, due to the weak demand in the domestic and foreign markets, the tire start-up showed a trend of high before and low after, and the start-up load decreased. From January to November, the output of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly by 0.1% year-on-year
Looking forward to 2022, dragged down by poor market expectations, the total domestic tire demand may decline by 1.71% in 2022, and there is also a certain downward pressure on production.
The relevant person in charge of a tire enterprise in Shandong said that if the overall output of domestic tire enterprises declines slightly, the demand for carbon black will decline accordingly. In addition, the dismantling of carbon black from waste tires has gradually become a scale, which will lead tire enterprises to further reduce the demand for carbon black.
It is worth noting that although the market of low-end carbon black products is seriously homogenized, the market competition is fierce and the profit space of the industry is limited, there is still a large demand gap for high-performance carbon black, special carbon black and other products in the medium and high-end product market. From 2020 to 2025, the market scale of special carbon black will rise at a CAGR of 8.1%.
Therefore, leading enterprises in the industry such as black cat Co., Ltd. and Yongdong Co., Ltd. will focus on high-end carbon black. In December, Yongdong plans to issue convertible bonds with a total amount of no more than RMB 380 million to build 70000 T / a special carbon black projects such as high-performance low rolling resistance carbon black, high-end product carbon black, conductive carbon black and high Pigment Carbon Black. Jinneng technology's new production capacity belongs to green carbon black, which has better performance than traditional carbon black and also has certain advantages in market competition.
