Weak cost support, carbon black prices continue to decline this week
December 12, 2023
Data shows that the price of Carbon Black continued to decline this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is at 9766 yuan/ton. Although the price of raw coal tar has slightly declined, the production pressure on carbon black enterprises is still high, and downstream enterprises have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, which has caused serious price pressure on the carbon black market.
In terms of raw materials, in the first week of December, the price of high-temperature coal tar from carbon black raw materials continued to decline weakly. As of the 10th, the coal tar market quotation was 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1300 yuan or 12.01% compared to early November. At present, the operating rate of coke enterprises in the market is not high, and the supply of coal tar is continuously decreasing. The supply of coal tar in the coal tar field is relatively scarce, but the market conditions of downstream products are still mainly downward, with no positive expectations for the time being. Negative factors have suppressed the price of coal tar, and most downstream factories in the field are still dominated by bearish sentiment. The high-temperature coal tar market is still mainly bearish, with weak support for the cost of carbon black. It is expected that coal tar prices will operate weakly in the short term.
Supply and demand side: Since October, the price of carbon black in the market has remained high. Despite the good consolidation and profitability of the carbon black industry, carbon black enterprises have less equipment maintenance, and their enthusiasm for starting work has remained high. There is sufficient supply of carbon black in the market, with some carbon black enterprises in the main production areas having significantly higher inventory. In November, some carbon black enterprises suspended production for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure, dragging down a narrow decline in the operating rate of carbon black enterprises.
In terms of terminals: Under the influence of cold winter weather, the impact of the off-season is gradually becoming apparent, and the demand for all steel tires and semi steel tires is gradually slowing down. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. The demand for carbon black terminals has weakened, and the export order volume of downstream tire industry enterprises has fallen, and the operating rate has declined compared to the previous period. The downstream tire industry is purchasing raw material carbon black at low prices, and entering the market to obtain goods only maintains basic needs, The market trading atmosphere is relatively quiet.
In the future, under the tug of war between supply and demand, the trend of raw materials is relatively stagnant, which may provide some support for carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to maintain a stable and consolidated carbon black market in the short term due to the multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.
