In 2023, the overall chemical market showed a trend of "more decline and less rise", especially with some previously popular products performing mediocrely under the constraints of weak consumer recovery. However, the Plasticizer category has had a particularly good performance in the past year, and some products have continued their market in 2024. Among them, plasticizer DBP, which has been controversial due to the "additive controversy," has recently become popular and prices have also broken through new highs.
Since early December last year, some DBP factories have been affected by shutdown and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in device load and a contraction in the overall market supply, supporting high market prices. In mid month, as supply gradually resumed and prices were about to fall, n-butanol factories in Zhejiang, Sichuan and other regions unexpectedly shut down again, adding another "fire" to the DBP market.
Tight supply of raw materials stimulates an increase in DBP prices
Taking the Henan market as an example, on January 10th, the DBP price reached 9475 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton or 2.71% compared to January 2nd after New Year's Day; Compared to the same period last month, it increased by 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.41%; And it broke through the high point of 9450 yuan/ton in December 2023.
In terms of local manufacturer quotations, on January 11th, a manufacturer in Kaifeng City, DBP and DIBP, with a total production capacity of 240000 tons/year, started operating normally. DBP quoted 9800 yuan/ton including tax for factory production, while Zhejiang Province quoted 50000 tons of plasticizer production equipment with low load. DBP quoted 9950 yuan/ton for factory production, both close to the price band of 10000 yuan.
The price increase of DBP is greatly affected by the maintenance of its raw material n-butanol unit. In early January, one n-butanol unit was shut down for maintenance in Sichuan and Zhejiang respectively. On January 9th, there were rumors in the industry that another n-butanol unit would be repaired before the Spring Festival.
The operating rate of the n-butanol unit continued to decline in early January, dropping from 87% to 77%. At present, the supply of n-butanol is tight. And Shandong manufacturers have suspended sales, with raw material prices continuing to rise, supporting a bullish market sentiment.
When replacing environmentally friendly plasticizers
Plasticizers, also known as plasticizers, are substances added to polymer systems that can increase their plasticity, flexibility, or expansion without affecting the essential properties of the polymer.
The chemical name of DBP is dibutyl phthalate, which has strong solubility in various resins and is mainly used in the processing of polyvinyl chloride, which can give products good flexibility. The latter is widely used in hundreds of products in China, such as toys, food packaging materials, medical blood bags and hoses, nail polish, hair sprays, etc.
Compared with other chemical products, plasticizers are hard to reach at ordinary times, but due to the extensive application of downstream products, over the years, including the plasticizer scandal of a well-known Baijiu manufacturer in China, the recall event of a well-known household decoration enterprise, and the plasticizer of well-known online celebrity milk powder that exceeds the standard, this chemical category has repeatedly been at the forefront of the storm.
On November 29, last year, Pang Dong Lai issued a recall notice for the production of Shan Hai Hao Brothers fresh pepper sauce after September 20, 2023 (including September 20, 2023), as the DBP (Dibutyl Phthalate) content in this batch of products exceeded the reference value.
On November 24, 2023, Italy reported a slipper produced in an unknown country to the EU's Rapid Warning System for Non Food Hazardous Products - Safety Gate (formerly RAPEX). The reported product was made of rubber material and contained excessive concentrations of dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and other substances. These phthalates can cause damage to the reproductive system, thereby harming health.
In the past, phthalate plasticizers were widely used due to their low prices. However, with countries around the world setting restrictions on the use of these traditional plasticizers, the development of environmentally friendly and harmless products has become an obvious trend in the plasticizer industry.
For example, Citric Acid ester plasticizers are considered the preferred green and environmentally friendly plasticizers to replace phthalates due to their non-toxic, non volatile, good weather resistance, and good compatibility advantages, and their consumption is growing rapidly.
For the follow-up market trend of DBP, since January, the market performance of DBP products has mainly been characterized by periodic rigid demand follow-up, with slight pressure on the supply and demand side. However, under the high operation of n-butanol raw material, the short-term market price follows the narrow fluctuation of the high raw material level, and attention will be paid to the further trend of the raw material side in the future.
