Recent highlights
Since August, the domestic Caustic Soda market has gradually returned to calm, and the price of caustic soda market, especially high-grade caustic soda, has fallen sharply after experiencing a sharp rise in the early stage. Although the price of flake soda is strong, there is little room for the price to rise again, and the inventory of some manufacturers began to accumulate gradually without obvious improvement in terminal demand, Even some traders began to sell at low prices.
As the main downstream of caustic soda, the overall operation of alumina, chemical fiber printing and dyeing and paper industry has little change. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, both garment exports and textile exports fell in July. Settled in RMB, textile and garment exports amounted to 181.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.24%, a month on month increase of 1.82% and a decrease of 4.21% over the same period in 2019; Among them, the textile export was RMB 75.06 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.73%, a month on month decrease of 6.90%, an increase of 1.30% over the same period in 2019. At the same time, due to the impact of the limited power policy, the load of 11 provincial power grids in East and central China, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shaanxi and Guangxi has reached a record high, gradually expanding the impact on the production and operation of the aluminum industry, and has now spread to the alumina industry.
Recent market trend analysis of domestic alumina industry
So far, the mainstream price of alumina in Shandong is 2640-2680 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of alumina in Shanxi is 2660-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of alumina in Henan is 2680-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of alumina in Guangxi is 2480-2520 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of alumina in Guizhou is 2490-2510 yuan / ton, an increase of 80-140 yuan / ton compared with the end of July.
Affected by the epidemic situation, continuous high temperature weather and other factors, the commencement of alumina units has decreased, and the spot supply in the market has decreased. Moreover, the price of liquid alkali purchased by alumina enterprises has increased sharply in August. In addition, the situation of power supply and demand is extremely severe and the coal supply is tight, which makes the price of aluminum oxide raw materials remain high, and the cost pressure of enterprises is still large. In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum starts normally and the demand is stable, which is good for the price of alumina. On the whole, the current alumina market has good support in terms of supply and demand, and it is expected that it will still be more stable, medium and strong in the short term.
Returning to the caustic soda market, from the supply side, there are few maintenance enterprises, the unit starts normally, and the downstream demand remains stable. The operation enthusiasm of people in the industry is lower than that in the early stage. In terms of the current market, although the liquid alkali market is supported by the signing of foreign trade orders, the flake alkali market has long order supply and is currently in the period of signing orders with alumina enterprises, in terms of the overall environment of the whole industry, especially the flake alkali price is still high, and the above positive support to the overall market is limited. In view of this, it is expected that in the short term, domestic caustic soda will be dominated by multi stable, medium and weak operation! In the later stage, more attention should be paid to the commencement of alumina and the signing of flake alkali and alumina enterprises.
Brief analysis of recent domestic caustic soda Market
1、 Liquid alkali Market
This week, the domestic liquid alkali price basically maintained stable operation, with little price fluctuation. The plant operation of enterprises in Shandong is stable. With the load reduction or maintenance of some local main enterprises, the supply of goods is reduced, and the signing of export orders, the price of high alkali rises again by 30 yuan / ton; Supported by the price rise in Shandong, the local price in Hebei increased slightly; The prices of individual enterprises in Jiangsu vary, but basically show a stable trend; The supply of restricted films in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the price of individual enterprises has increased by 50 yuan / ton (100%); Other regions remained basically stable.
On the whole, the current unit operation of chlor alkali enterprises is stable at about 85%. With the weakening of downstream demand, the reduction of exports and the obstruction of logistics transportation, the enterprise inventory is gradually increasing, the operation enthusiasm of people in the industry is not high, the market is gradually weakened, and the market is also beginning to appear.
With the load reduction or maintenance of the main enterprises in Shandong and the signing of export orders, there is a certain positive support in the liquid alkali market, but the price is difficult to rise sharply due to the inhibition of domestic demand. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic liquid alkali market will remain stable in the near future, and it is not ruled out that some areas show a regional trend.
2、 Flake alkali Market
This week, the domestic flake alkali market basically maintained stable operation, with little price change. At present, the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is 2100-2200 yuan / ton.
With the start-up of early maintenance manufacturers, the inventory is gradually accumulating, and the supply shortage of manufacturers has been alleviated to some extent. However, individual manufacturers have sufficient orders and the inventory is still low. In addition, the maintenance plan of the main manufacturers in Shandong is delayed to September 5, and due to power restriction and environmental protection, alumina enterprises may have load reduction plans, coupled with the low commencement of printing and dyeing industry and limited logistics and transportation, which will have a negative impact on the flake alkali market. At present, the price is at a high level, with more rigid demand in the downstream, which limits the price of flake alkali to a certain extent. At the same time, the wait-and-see mentality of people in the industry for the current high price has increased, and the phenomenon of price reduction and selling by some traders has begun to appear.
On the whole, the current flake alkali market still has a certain positive support, and most manufacturers support the price. In view of this, it is expected that the multi-dimensional and stable operation of the domestic flake alkali market will be dominated in the short term, and the possibility of price reduction of individual manufacturers will not be ruled out. In the later stage, more attention should be paid to the signing between alumina enterprises and flake alkali enterprises.
