The raw material and application markets are weak, and the polyvinyl alcohol market is fluctuating and consolidating

April 07, 2024

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This month, the fatigue of Polyvinyl Alcohol upstream and downstream products has continued, with sluggish market shipments and significant bearish declines. The polyvinyl alcohol market is in a volatile consolidation phase. As of March 27th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol was 12350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared to the beginning of this month (12233 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of upstream raw materials:
Coal: In mid March, prices of various coal types across the country fell comprehensively. Anthracite coal has shifted from rising to falling, and the price decline of coking coal and thermal coal has expanded, with a very significant decline. In addition, the national price of coke (quasi first-class metallurgical coke) was 1912.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.0 yuan/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 5.0%.
Acetic Acid: The market price is 3000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.23% compared to the beginning of this month (3100.00 yuan/ton). Cost support continues to weaken. Although the decline is not significant, it indicates a slight trend in market prices. In addition, compared to the same period last month, the price of acetic ACID decreased by 4.76% month on month. This significant decline indicates that the acetic acid market is facing more significant downward pressure on prices over a longer period of time.

From the perspective of downstream products:
Adhesive: Throughout March, the prices of most adhesive raw materials have been declining. From the consumer side, the newly started construction area of downstream buildings has decreased year-on-year, and the starting construction area in March has also shown a year-on-year downward trend; The production of automobiles has also shown varying degrees of decline compared to last year; Although the production of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, the production of adhesives used is relatively small; From the production side, currently major leading enterprises have good production, generally high operating rates, and sufficient supply capacity. In March, the adhesive industry was in a state of supply exceeding demand, coupled with a sluggish downstream market, resulting in a significant decline in raw material prices.
From the current situation, when the upstream and downstream industrial chains of polyvinyl alcohol are undergoing downward adjustments, the linkage effect of products is enhanced, which also has a significant impact on the overall market mentality of the industry. From the perspective of adjustment range, the current price adjustment of polyvinyl alcohol is uneven: coal is faster than acetic acid. In addition to supply and demand, the subsequent cost price game will also strengthen, and the cost line will be an important balance weight for the fluctuation width of most products. However, from the market performance this month, there is a clear lack of positive effects on the industrial chain, and the consolidation of market weakness continues.

Author:

Ms. Yolanda

E-mail:

info@jinhetec.com

Phone/WhatsApp:

+8613298161700