1、 Price trend
On October 29, the average price of domestic phosphoric ACID was 5000 yuan / ton, up 1.01% compared with the beginning of the week, 2.74% on a month on month basis, 6.54% lower than the beginning of the year and 6.25% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
This week, phosphoric acid market continued to rise with the rise of raw materials, but the range was not large. At present, the price of phosphoric acid market has been raised in many places, and most enterprises fluctuate in the range of 50-150 yuan / ton. Take Jinhe chemical as an example, it has risen to 4850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan. Other places also have different degrees of increase. At the same time, some enterprises have higher prices, so quotation is suspended and sales are relatively stable. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus is stable, but the enterprises intend to raise the price. With the normal period approaching, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been increased. The production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased, and the price has continued to rise. The phosphoric acid market is strongly supported by the cost side, and the price goes up gradually. However, the demand follow-up is insufficient, the industry has a lot of wait-and-see mood, and the enthusiasm of preparing goods is not high Transaction atmosphere is not warm, cautious procurement, future market also need to pay attention to the cost side.
As of October 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5000 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan is 4850-5400 yuan / ton, the price is rising, Yunnan is about 4800 yuan / ton, the transaction is stable; Beijing is about 4700 yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; Hubei is about 4800-5050 yuan / ton, the price is rising; Tianjin is about 5600 yuan / ton In Jiangsu Province, the price rose at about 4700 yuan / ton. Prices have risen steadily in various places.
Phosphoric acid industry chain rises more and falls less
Yellow phosphorus, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market rose this month. At present, the spot sales of yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan increased rapidly, followed by Guizhou, and gradually increased in Sichuan. The normal water period is approaching, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased in the next month, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. However, there is a tight demand for phosphorus production in Sichuan. Yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term.
In the middle of October, the domestic Guizhou region led the overall upward trend of the national phosphate ore market, and the quotation of medium and low-grade phosphate ore increased one after another, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of mining enterprises is firm, and the downstream moderate orders are received. The market prices of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid are rising one after another, and the supply and demand remain stable. As of October 26, the domestic mainstream areas have 30% grade phosphate rock reference The average price was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%.
Sulfuric acid, in late October, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The price of sulfur in the upstream has been high recently, and the downstream market is good. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream for sulfuric acid is normal, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. We believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small shock rise.
At present, the raw material price of Monoammonium continues to rise, the cost is favorable to support, and the downstream demand increases. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to rise in the short term. At present, the supply of diammonium is tight, the international demand is stable temporarily, and the downstream fertilizer preparation is increasing. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
We believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is rising continuously. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost side, the price continues to rise, and the focus of negotiation continues to move closer to the high level. However, the demand side performance is poor and the industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude. The yellow phosphorus still has a bullish expectation next month, and it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to follow the rise.
