1、 Price trend
On October 30, the domestic Carbon Black quotation was 7066 yuan / ton, and the price fluctuated slightly. The price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and the carbon black market fluctuated mainly in this month.
2、 Market analysis
Market conditions
Carbon black continues to be de stocked, and the supply and demand is gradually tightening: the domestic carbon black production capacity is overall surplus, with a total capacity of 8 million tons in 2019, and the operating rate is 57%. Only the leading enterprises maintain a high operating load, and the new capacity of the industry slows down. In 2020, due to the low demand of the downstream, carbon black inventory reached 250000 tons in April. High inventory and low profit forced the industry to reduce operation, and the carbon black industry entered a new balance of supply and demand. Recently, the demand for downstream tires rebounded, and the supply and demand of the industry began to tighten. In June, the domestic carbon black operating rate dropped to 45%. After the new balance between supply and demand, the operating rate was gradually increased to 60% driven by the better downstream demand, and gradually returned to the level of 2019. There is limited room for further start-up and improvement. At present, carbon black inventory has dropped to 180000 tons, downstream demand continues to warm up, industry inventory is expected to further decline.
Upstream and downstream
In October, the coal tar market was relatively warm, with the mainstream increase of 210-230 yuan / ton, and the cost of carbon black increased by 300-400 yuan / ton; the pressure from the cost side formed a favorable support for the rise of carbon black price. Support cost of raw material coal tar: coal tar is the main raw material of carbon black, and the trend of coal tar is rising in recent years, and the support of carbon black cost side is strong. At present, the operating load of coke enterprises is high, but the supply and demand of coal tar is still tight, the downstream deep processing maintains a considerable operating rate, and the coal tar downstream enterprises have a stock demand during the national day, the price of coal tar continues to be strong, and the cost side forms a support for carbon black.
The demand for downstream tires rebounded: carbon black was used to add tire rubber to improve strength and enhance wear resistance, and the demand for downstream tires accounted for 70%. Affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for tires in the first half of the year was sluggish. From January to June, the domestic automobile output was 9.96 million, which was - 18% year-on-year. The tire output was 278 million, which was - 31% year-on-year. The profit of carbon black fell to a trough, and the price difference of carbon black coal tar dropped to 750 yuan. In the second half of the year, with the control of the epidemic situation and the recovery of automobile consumption, the domestic automobile production in August was 2.12 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and the sales volume of 2.19 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. In August, the output of semi steel tire was 43.51 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.91%; the output of all steel tire was 12.5 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21%; the number of new pneumatic rubber tire exports in July was 47.29 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a month on month increase of 30.3%. The operating rate of semi steel tire increased to 70.53%, and that of all steel tire increased to 74.27%. In addition, in August, several tire enterprises increased their prices, and the industry trend recovered.
3、 Future forecast
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the supply of carbon black is still tight, and the price may be stronger; when the downstream demand enters the traditional off-season in 2021 and the coming Spring Festival holiday, the price of carbon black continues to push up and keep pressure. Analysts believe that the price is stable and fluctuates slightly.
