[Introduction]
Carbon Black is a fine black powder made from carbon. It is produced by the incomplete combustion of petroleum products or natural gas. Carbon black is mainly used as a reinforcing filler in rubber products, such as tires, as it improves their strength, durability, and wear resistance. It is also used as a pigment in inks, coatings, and plastics. Additionally, carbon black has applications in various industries, including electronics, batteries, and conductive polymers.
Since June, the price of carbon black market has shown an obvious trend of falling, rising and falling again. Enterprises of carbon black downstream products have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the actual market transactions are weak. As Coal tar prices continue to run weak in July, the industry is also particularly concerned about the future price trend of carbon black.
In June, it fell first and then rose, while in July, it weakened and declined
In June, driven by the first drop in raw material prices followed by an increase, the carbon black market price showed a trend of first drop followed by an increase; Entering July, the price of carbon black in the market has turned into a downward trend due to the weakening cost. As of July 17th, the operating range of carbon black market prices in Shandong region is 7300-7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan/ton or 6.92% compared to the average price at the beginning of July. The reasons for the decline of carbon black market price in July are as follows: first, the terminal demand in the deep processing field was flat and the product was weak, the intention to accept high price Coal tar fell back, and the price of Coal tar market fell back when the high price transaction was blocked, leading to the decline of carbon black market price following the cost; Secondly, the tire market has a strong resistance towards high cost carbon black, and due to the decline in raw material prices, the tire market further suppresses the price of carbon black in the market; Thirdly, the demand in the field of terminal products is flat and the operating load is not high. Dealers are cautious in entering the market and stocking up. The market has average demand for carbon black, and carbon black enterprises are expanding their negotiation space to stimulate market shipments.
Deep processing terminal demand is flat, and Coal tar is weak
The Coal tar market continued its weak operation in July. As of July 18, the operating range of high-temperature Coal tar price in Shandong market was 4055-4060 yuan/ton, down 202.5 yuan/ton from the average price at the beginning of July, or 4.75%. The reasons for the weak price of high-temperature Coal tar in July are as follows: first, the terminal demand for deep processing products is general, the price of main products, such as coal tar pitch, has declined, and the deep processing industry starts generally, so the demand for Coal tar is not high; Second, the profit of deep processing industry is weak, the ability to accept high price Coal tar is not strong, the high price Coal tar shipment is blocked, and the market price is weak.
The enthusiasm of short-term deep processing terminal demand is hard to be boosted, the coal tar pitch and other products are mainly in poor shipment or weak operation, and the Coal tar price is still in weak operation; However, at present, the output of Coal tar is not high, the demand for downstream deep processing and carbon black is stable, the price decline of Coal tar may not be large, and short-term weak shocks are dominant, which to some extent, mainly drag down the trading mentality of carbon black market.
Stable market demand, relatively balanced market supply and demand
The market started operating at a high load in July. As of last Thursday, the operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 62.89%, 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 71.61%, which was 6.38 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The arrival of high temperature weather in July has led to an increase in end market consumption, and the demand for tire replacement is still acceptable, while downstream demand is relatively stable; At the same time, supported by favorable factors such as the advantage of the RMB exchange rate and low sea freight rates, tire exports have performed quite well, providing significant support for current domestic tire sales. Tire factories maintain high production levels and demand for carbon black is relatively stable. Affected by the continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, the carbon black industry maintains a low operating load to avoid inventory accumulation risks, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, with limited impact on the current carbon black prices.
Prediction: Short-term carbon black market prices are weak and expected to rebound in the medium to long term
In terms of cost: the price of Coal tar or its weak position is dominated by the sluggish demand in the short-term deep processing field. However, in the medium and long term, the downstream demand of coal tar pitch in August may be expected to improve. The supply side of deep processing may be tightened, driving the price of deep processing products to rise, thus driving the price of high-temperature Coal tar to rise, and the cost of carbon black to rise or follow the increase in the cost pressure.
In terms of supply and demand, the profit margin of the carbon black industry is weak, and even under the pressure of losses, the short-term operating load of the industry may remain low. However, the downstream relative demand is relatively stable, and the tire export market still supports its operating inventory in the short term. There is no significant decline in the demand for carbon black, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. Affected by the poor profitability in the first half of the year, carbon black enterprises may increase their prices in the second half of the year without obvious inventory pressure.
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