abstract
Since July, the overall price of domestic PVC futures has continued the rebound trend since June, and has risen and fallen this week. Currently, the price center of the rebound in the market is at 6092 yuan.
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01
Summer maintenance, Pvc Resin supply and demand repair is still in the window period
In July, the domestic PVC futures market began a trend rebound and fell after reaching a high of 6092 this week. From a fundamental perspective, the overall demand for PVC powder has not performed well this year. At the same time, the overall construction of domestic upstream devices in the early stage was relatively high, and inventory remained at a high level against the backdrop of weak supply and demand. The prices of spot and disk products continued to be under pressure. Since the second quarter, the number of PVC Resin plant maintenance has significantly increased, and the operating rate of carbide method has dropped to a low range of 65% -70% for nearly two months. The maintenance quantity of ethylene process equipment also significantly increased in June, and the operating rate decreased to less than 70%. After two months of repair from May to June, the effect of supply contraction has begun to appear, and the inventory in South China has been largely digested. On the other hand, the processing profit of PVC powder is still at a poor level, and there is still a demand for repair at the price level. In July, with the collective rebound of the energy and chemical sectors represented by crude oil and the relative improvement of the fundamentals of PVC resin itself, the market price also began to rebound. Considering the currently announced July device maintenance plan, the upstream maintenance and supply contraction process of PVC resin have not yet ended. Therefore, this summer's repair market is underway.
02
The operating rate of calcium carbide method is still at a low level
As of last weekend, the overall operating rate of PVC powder was 73.82%, an increase of 0.34% month on month. The operating rate of the carbide method was 72.12%, an increase of 1.26% month on month. The operating rate of ethylene method is 78.95%, a decrease of 2.46% month on month. In terms of maintenance, there are currently 8 units with maintenance plans in July, involving a production capacity of 2.85 million tons. There are 6 units with expected maintenance in August, mostly involving a production capacity of 2.95 million tons in the northwest region. In terms of the amount of maintenance losses, the production of PVC resin in May was 2719600 tons, and the maintenance losses in June were 35422 tons, both showing a significant increase compared to the same period last month.
03
PVC resin inventory slightly improved
At present, the PVC resin has been slightly digested as a whole, and South China has improved significantly. As of last week, the latest total inventory of samples from major regions was 399200 tons, an increase of 4600 tons compared to the previous week. According to the regional data, the PVC inventory in East China is 418000 tons (down 2000 tons month on month). PVC inventory in South China is 61900 tons (down 3000 tons month on month).
04
Calcium carbide prices rebounded in July
Since July, domestic calcium carbide prices have rebounded significantly. The spot price of calcium carbide (290L/KG) in Wuhai market is 2850 yuan/ton, 100 yuan higher than that in early July. The price of carbide (305L/KG) in Hebei market is 3165 yuan/ton, which is the same as that in early July. The price of calcium carbide (295L/KG) in Shandong region is 3265 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan compared to early July. In terms of calcium carbide production, the released data for June showed that the production of calcium carbide was 2.217 million tons, a decrease of 60000 tons month on month and 167000 tons year-on-year.
05
Slow recovery of PVC powder demand side
Currently, the demand side of PVC powder is performing average. The operating rate of major domestic PVC profile enterprises remained flat and slightly decreased, with a 31% operating rate in June, a decrease of 2% compared to May. On the other hand, the export demand for flooring products is still recovering. The export data for May released by the customs showed 408300 tons, an increase of 15500 tons month on month and a decrease of 65000 tons year-on-year. In May, the export volume of PVC powder reached 140000 tons, continuing the trend of recovery compared to the previous month.
06
conclusion
Overall, with the adjustment of supply contraction and the slow recovery of terminal demand. PVC powder finally began to rebound in July. The rebound is welcome, but the supply and demand side is still in the process of repairing, so it is difficult to achieve a rebound overnight. From an optimistic perspective, summer maintenance is still deepening, and there are still many devices with maintenance plans from July to August. At the same time, although PVC powder spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded, the cost side calcium carbide prices have also rebounded recently, diverting the results of PVC resin spot price increases. Looking ahead to the future, there is still room and logic for PVC resin to repair itself, and the focus of summer prices may slowly shift upwards.
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