1、 PVC futures rebound strongly
Supply and demand relationship tightened, PVC prices rose. PVC futures price adjusted deeply in the first quarter, stopped falling and rebounded in the second quarter, and recovered the year's decline at the beginning of the third quarter. Gold nine silver ten market brewing, PVC upward breakthrough, strong return, ushered in a wave of rebound. Due to the limited supply of goods in the market, PVC futures and current prices rose simultaneously. Although has entered the winter, but the PVC market atmosphere is warm, the off-season is not light. In November, PVC went to a higher level and returned to the top of 7000 yuan / ton, and the rise was in full swing. PVC futures rose strongly. After standing at the 8000 round mark, PVC futures successfully broke through the 2016 high point and reached 8420, a new high in nearly nine years.
2、 Tight goods and rising prices in the spot market
The trend of PVC spot market is consistent with that of futures, and the performance is stronger. In the fourth quarter, the spot market is actively pulling up, breaking the 2016 high point. The supply of PVC tends to be tense, the circulation speed of goods source is accelerated, and the high level of social inventory falls. PVC spot market continued to rise, with the highest basis of 850 yuan / ton. Due to the planned maintenance and partial load reduction of the plant, the average operating level of PVC decreased. Supply reduction, demand improvement, PVC supply and demand is tight, pushing prices up continuously. Quotation of 5-type electric stone: quotation of 5-type electric stone: 8850-9080 yuan / ton for East China SG-5 mainstream, 8850-9000 yuan / ton for South China SG-5 spot 5-type electric stone, 8800-8900 yuan / ton in late December, 8450-8600 yuan / ton in January, 8570-8620 yuan / ton in Hebei Province and 8700-8850 yuan / ton in Shandong Province.
3、 Calcium carbide price keeps rising
The demand for calcium carbide increased and the relationship between supply and demand was changed. The prices of downstream products continued to rebound, enterprises had a high enthusiasm for production, the demand for calcium carbide was strong, and the market purchase price was gradually increased. The calcium carbide industry is developing well, the price is on the rising trend, and the enterprise benefit is obviously improved. After this round of increase, the high-end ex factory price of calcium carbide has exceeded 3600 yuan / ton, and the downstream high-end purchase price has exceeded 4000 yuan / ton. The profits of calcium carbide enterprises have reached a new high in the past decade. The price of calcium carbide is basically at the top, the cost side of PVC is significantly increased, and the possibility of further expansion in the later period is small, and the purchase price of calcium carbide is expected to stabilize.
4、 The start-up level of the plant has declined
Starting from the second half of 2019, the operating rate range of PVC production units will move down. In 2020, due to the impact of public health emergencies, the operating load of PVC plant will further drop. By the end of November, the average operating rate of PVC industry was 76.82%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.94%. The average annual operating level of PVC industry shows a downward trend, which is also a factor leading to tight supply of goods. The spot price of PVC is at a high level, the enterprise has considerable profits and high enthusiasm for production, and the overall operating rate of the plant fluctuates above 80%. In December, the plant maintenance plan is not much, PVC production is expected to increase, but the short-term supply shortage will continue.
5、 Export orders increase
Since the late August, the shortage of external market supply is becoming more and more serious. With the increase of foreign prices, the arbitrage window of PVC export is opened, the export advantage is gradually showing, and the number of orders is obviously increased. A large number of sources of goods are concentrated in October, and the export volume of PVC in that month is close to 100000 tons. The export situation is getting better, which aggravates the domestic supply tension. With the sharp rise of domestic PVC price, the willingness of enterprises to export is reduced, the export volume of PVC will fall back at a high level, and the export advantage will disappear.
6、 Social inventory continues to fall
The social inventory of PVC in East and South China reached 478200 tons in March, the highest level in recent five years. In the second quarter, PVC entered the de stocking stage, the demand gradually recovered, the supply side tightened, and the social inventory continued to fall back to the normal level. Although the new units have been put into operation, the downstream market just needs to be stable, and the number of export orders has increased, so the market delivery situation is not good. The supply of goods continued to be tight, and the social inventory of PVC was reduced to 65200 tons. The spot market of PVC continues to rise, the downstream terminal is mainly required, the purchasing pace is slowed down, and the arrival of goods in transit and market is increasing. December will enter the stage of slow accumulation.
7、 Future trend
PVC continued to soar, mainly driven by tight supply, the mainstream prices around continue to rise, spot is still in a high premium state. The quotation of enterprises in the main production areas in Northwest China has increased steadily. Most manufacturers have pre-sale orders, and the inventory level is not high. There is no sales pressure for the time being, and there is an intention of supporting prices. Traders are reluctant to sell due to the limited supply of goods available for sale, while the price of pre-sale orders has increased by a narrow margin. But the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, the rhythm has slowed down. The downward conduction of high price PVC has some resistance, some small and medium-sized products factories fall into deficit and fall into negative, large-scale product factories can start operation, and just need support still exists. In addition, some sources of goods delivered export orders, aggravating domestic supply tension. The price of raw material calcium carbide is stable temporarily. PVC enterprises can maintain production after arrival, and the cost side is significantly increased compared with the previous period. The external market is also facing a supply gap, and the quotation is rising positively. PVC market presents the structure of near strong and far weak. The purchase price of raw material calcium carbide also reached a record high, and the cost was transferred upward. PVC fundamentals no pressure, tight goods, prices rise, short-term to maintain a strong trend.
