At the beginning of 2020, due to the impact of public health events, crude oil slump and other factors, Carbon Black market price is in a low downward trend; In the second half of the year, with the demand for automobiles and tires getting better, the demand for carbon black exceeded the market expectation, and the price of carbon black rose in four rounds, with the cumulative increase of 2900-3200 yuan / ton. In addition, the price of coal tar, the main raw material of carbon black, rose again, which supported the market's confidence in the rise of carbon black price.
In the cost of carbon black production, the raw material cost accounts for the highest proportion, about 80%. Therefore, the fluctuation of raw material price has a great impact on the profits of carbon black processing manufacturers. The second is the cost of fuel, about 15% - 20%, because carbon black needs a lot of energy in the production process. At present, coal tar and anthracene oil are the main raw materials for carbon black production in China. Among them, coal tar is the main raw material of carbon black, accounting for 90% of the raw materials. Recently, the price of coal tar has shown an upward trend, which strongly supports the cost side of carbon black. In terms of market structure, the domestic coal tar market is generally stable, and the production restriction of coking plants in some areas is relatively large, resulting in less coal tar supply.
Since the second half of 2020, carbon black prices have continued to rise. The main reasons are: with the effective control of the domestic epidemic situation, manufacturing enterprises quickly return to work and production, while the overseas epidemic situation is still grim, tire enterprises in America and Europe are hindered from starting and transportation, and the operating rate of domestic and Southeast Asia tire industry continues to rise, resulting in strong demand for raw materials and the continuous decline of domestic industry inventory, And industry supply by the downturn in recent years, there is no large number of new capacity.
Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, due to the high pressure of environmental protection, the operating rate of carbon black industry can not continue to rise, and the price of raw coal tar continues to rise, and the inventory of carbon black industry continues to decline. The superposition of multiple factors leads to the rise of external quotation of industry scale enterprises.
On November 24, the price of carbon black in domestic markets rose again by 11.15% to 7475 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of N330 carbon black in northern Shandong Province rose to 6800-7200 yuan / ton and that in Guangdong Province rose to 7000-7200 yuan / ton. According to the agency's estimation, the gross profit of the industry is about 800 yuan / ton. Since September this year, the price of carbon black has increased by 31%. Since the beginning of June, the price of carbon black has increased by more than 60%. It is reported that several leading carbon black enterprises or collectives have raised the carbon black price by 1000 yuan / ton and 2000 yuan / ton in the first quarter of next year.
At present, the inventory of carbon black industry is lower than the normal level, and the gap between supply and demand is still obvious. On the downstream side, with the weather getting better, tire manufacturers started to resume normal levels. Analysts believe that at present, the northern region has entered the heating season, which will have an impact on the operating rate of coal tar carbon black industry. Under the background of higher operating rate of downstream tire industry and urgent demand for carbon black just in need of replenishment, carbon black price is expected to continue to rise.
