1、 Market analysis
October is coming to an end, and the sound of warming up for November is getting stronger and stronger. The price rising tide is coming ahead of schedule. At present, more than 20 manufacturers have announced the price rise closely, with the range of 800-1200 yuan / ton. This wave of increase is unprecedented and full of momentum. On the one hand, the export orders of various manufacturers are still good, and the domestic spot market is still tense, on the other hand, it comes from The market of raw material titanium concentrate has risen sharply. The mainstream real price in the market has reached about 1950 yuan / ton (excluding tax), and the price of a few orders has broken through 2000 yuan / ton (excluding tax).
We believe that there are two main reasons for the price rise of Titanium Dioxide
First, the volume of foreign trade is huge. According to the statistical data provided by the General Administration of customs, the cumulative export volume of titanium dioxide from January to September 2020 is 889540.01 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.98%. It is believed that under the epidemic situation in 2020, China's titanium dioxide export volume will reach an unprecedented high, estimated to be nearly 1.2 million tons, accounting for 37.3% of the total output of 3.18 million tons in 2019. All manufacturers are still mainly for export delivery, and the domestic delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2020 is very small. Even if some manufacturers do not receive domestic orders in the future, they have completed the annual task.
Second, the market of important raw material titanium concentrate has been the icing on the cake in recent years, with little help in time. The 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate rose from 1150 yuan / ton in the early June to 1950 yuan / ton at the end of October (the above prices do not include tax), with an increase of 69.57%. From the perspective of the main material titanium concentrate, the cost of titanium dioxide has been pushed up by 2000 yuan / ton, and the recent jump is 400 yuan / ton The cost of titanium dioxide has increased by 1000 yuan / ton directly. In this way, the jump of 1000 yuan is helpless. It is just the domestic and foreign trade orders which have suffered from the previous low price and have not yet been delivered.
There are two characteristics of titanium dioxide price market in recent two months, which are huge increase and firm rise. Due to the increase of cost, including the tense situation of spot goods which lasted for several months, the manufacturers have a clear attitude towards the future market situation and are more resolute in implementing the price. After nearly two rounds of resolute rise, the tense situation in the spot has not been alleviated. The shortage of commonly used goods has forced many replaceable products. Some manufacturers' products have taken the opportunity to "go ashore" and produce products in various application fields Supply concentration has weakened. The small amount of spot price increase in the hands of the cargo holder is superimposed with the increase, and the real single price is more arbitrary, resistant to the order in arrears, and the supply side is strong.
Because of the serious shortage of goods in the domestic market, some manufacturers and dealers have sold "futures". Small orders can be arranged in coordination. On the contrary, large orders are afraid to accept them. The main reason is that the delivery time will be too long. Once the market price rises again, the previous orders will be almost lost. Therefore, there are a lot of pre rising operations in the market, but the increase is difficult to predict. What's more, it is more difficult for customers to accept such advance Up.
At present, the mainstream prices of rutile and anatase titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric ACID process are 14800-16500 yuan / ton and 12500-14000 yuan / ton, while the mainstream prices of domestic and imported chlorinated rutile titanium dioxide are 18500-20500 yuan / ton and 25800-28000 yuan / ton according to their uses.
2、 Future forecast
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide price market is strong, we think: for several months in a row, the spot is tight, the raw material titanium concentrate price increases sharply, this wave of market at the end of this wave, sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide price high has reached 16000 yuan / ton. The spot market is still relatively tense, but some of the high quotations have been antagonistic, and the substitution between products is gradually increasing. In the short term, some domestic and foreign trade orders have been received by some cargo holders in December. Judging from this situation, it may be a high probability event that the future market will continue to rise. The actual transaction price in the market will be discussed according to the spot situation.
