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Recently, affected by the imbalance between supply and demand, PVC rose like a rainbow and hit new highs. From a fundamental point of view, the current PVC supply is difficult to increase significantly, while the downstream demand is expected to pick up. It is expected that PVC will still operate strongly in the later stage.
In terms of supply, in August 2021, China produced a total of 859500 tons of PVC, with a month on month increase of - 50900 tons, an increase of - 2.66%, and a year-on-year increase of 54400 tons, an increase of 3.01%. From January to August 2021, China produced a total of 5.2744 million tons of pvc15, an increase of 1.7353 million tons over the same period last year, with a cumulative increase of 12.82%. However, the monthly output has fallen for two consecutive months. This is mainly caused by the shortage of raw material supply and the reduction of load production by many coal enterprises.
It is understood that by 2020, China's PVC production capacity is 25.39 million tons, including 20.38 million tons of calcium carbide PVC, accounting for about 80.27%; The production capacity of Vinyl PVC is 5.01 million tons, accounting for about 19.73%. Due to the influence of power restriction and other factors, most of the production enterprises of externally mined calcium carbide (involving a production capacity of about 5.7 million tons) have been affected, and the negative production has been reduced, which also leads to the operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises being significantly lower than that of ethylene production enterprises.
In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic PVC downstream enterprises rebounded month on month, which was also higher than that of the same period last year. Data show that as of September 3, the operating rate of downstream products enterprises in North China reported 70%, an increase of 5% over August and 8% over the same period last year. The geological construction rate in South China reported 74%, an increase of 5% over August and 2% over the same period last year. It is expected that PVC will maintain a strong operation pattern in the short term.
June 25, 2023
April 03, 2023
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June 25, 2023
April 03, 2023
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