Introduction
In July, the electricity price difference in China has gradually expanded, and the transaction of PVC powder using calcium carbide method is not hot and there is resistance to price increase. The export order of PVC powder using ethylene method is good, and the domestic supply of goods has decreased, resulting in a rapid price increase. In the short term, the supply of ethylene based PVC powder is tight and the price is high, while the rise of calcium carbide method is under pressure. It is expected that the price difference between ethylene and calcium carbide materials will still remain relatively large.
The production process of PVC powder in China is mainly divided into two types: calcium carbide method and ethylene method. Currently, the production capacity of PVC powder calcium carbide method accounts for 74.86%, and the production capacity of ethylene method accounts for 24.79%. The EDC method is a newly added process, and only the 100000 ton unit of Texas Shihua is currently put into operation, accounting for 0.35%. Due to the advantages of raw materials and processes, the price of ethylene method is generally higher than that of calcium carbide method, but the differences in specific uses between the two processes are not significant. Most downstream industries can use both process raw materials, but relatively speaking, ethylene method is more used in fields such as medical products.
Generally speaking, there is a certain price difference between ethylene and carbide materials, with the price of ethylene higher than that of carbide materials. Usually, this price difference is maintained at 200-400 yuan/ton. But as we enter July, the price difference between the second generation electricity gradually expands. Taking Changzhou as an example, the price difference between the S-1000 model and the SG-5 gradually increases to around 250 yuan/ton, while the delivery price of US65 and the SG-5 price gradually increase to around 500 yuan/ton.
The reason for the gradual expansion of the electricity price difference for PVC powder B in July is mainly due to the differentiation in the trend of calcium carbide and ethylene materials. Although the trends of the two have a certain correlation in the long term, there may also be some differences in the short term. The difference between the two is partly due to differences in financial attributes, and partly due to differences in their fundamental performance during certain time periods. Below is a specific analysis:
Firstly, the strong financial attributes of calcium carbide materials are closely linked to futures.
Because most futures deliveries are made of carbide materials, the linkage between carbide materials and futures is relatively close. In July, the volatility of PVC powder futures was high, and the overall price center shifted upwards. Calcium carbide materials followed suit to adjust, but the supply of calcium carbide materials was abundant and the social inventory was high, so the price of calcium carbide materials was relatively weak to keep up with the increase; Relatively speaking, the ethylene method mainly adjusts the quotation based on its own production and sales situation. Ethylene method enterprises have better pre-sales, and the quotation is more obvious to follow the upward trend of futures.
Secondly, the ethylene method has better export orders and faster price increases
Entering July, Taiwan Formosa Plastics raised its shipping quotation for August, coupled with expectations of a decrease in foreign supply, stimulating the enthusiasm of foreign markets to buy. The arbitrage space for domestic PVC powder exports has expanded, and the export enthusiasm of ethylene based PVC powder production enterprises has increased. Export orders have significantly increased. It is reported that the latest export quotation for ethylene based PVC powder FOB Tianjin/Qingdao is around 780 US dollars/ton, and order acceptance is also acceptable. Therefore, the overall pre-sales of ethylene method enterprises are good, with most of the orders received in August and some orders received in limited quantities. Therefore, the overall pressure on ethylene method enterprises is not high, with high export intentions, reduced domestic sales sources, and significant price increases.
For ethylene based PVC powder, there is still a certain degree of sustainability in the short-term export of ethylene based PVC powder. In addition, some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, so it is expected that the supply of ethylene based PVC powder in the market is relatively tight or will operate at a high price; At present, the market supply of PVC powder produced by calcium carbide method is still relatively abundant, and the futures of PVC powder gradually enter the delivery month in the later stage. Although there are significant fluctuations, the final logic is still mainly based on fundamental logic. Therefore, the expected increase of calcium carbide method is limited. Overall, it is expected that the short-term price difference between ethylene and calcium carbide materials will remain relatively large.
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