[Introduction] In June, the export volume of Pvc Resin continued to increase month on month, but the year-on-year decrease was still significant. Based on the export orders received in July and overseas procurement enthusiasm, it is expected that the export volume of PVC Resin powder from July to August may continue to increase.
The export of PVC resin powder continued to increase month on month in June
The export volume of PVC resin powder continued to increase month on month in June. According to customs data, the export volume of PVC resin powder in June was 157700 tons, an increase of 12.37% month on month and a decrease of 29.44% year-on-year. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.086 million tons, 12.58% lower than the same period last year, and the cumulative decrease was further expanded compared to May.
From the export trend of this year, the export volume from January to February was at a high level year-on-year, mainly due to the strong macroeconomic expectations that stimulated the domestic PVC resin market since December last year, leading to a rebound in the market. The large amount of hoarding in overseas markets such as India has a certain relationship. After the year, as the domestic PVC resin market returned to fundamentals and prices fell again, the enthusiasm for overseas purchases gradually weakened. The export volume gradually declined from March to April, and slightly rebounded from May to June, but it is still significantly lower than the same period last year.
From the perspective of export trading partners, there has been little change in export destinations, mainly concentrated in South Asia, Africa, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and other regions. The top five export destinations are India, Nigeria, Vietnam, Thailand, and Uzbekistan, with a total export volume of 100300 tons, accounting for 63.63% of the total export volume.
The export volume slightly increased in June, which is related to changes in both China and overseas markets. On the one hand, the Chinese market stabilized in June, but the rebound was limited, and prices were still low, making export arbitrage suitable. On the other hand, there has been a decline in exports in the US market and a slight improvement in purchasing enthusiasm in overseas markets.
The Chinese market stabilizes and prices rebound from low levels
The Chinese market gradually stabilized in June, with prices slightly rising at the bottom. On the one hand, due to the improvement of the macro atmosphere, with PPI and other data falling to historical lows, the market generally expects that the macro data will gradually bottom out and improve in the future. In addition, the market is looking forward to further easing policies. On the other hand, there is support for the fundamentals. The absolute price of PVC resin is at a historical low, with severe industry losses and an increase in stock production reduction. In June, the operating load rate of the PVC resin industry dropped to the lowest level within the year. With the stabilization of the Chinese market and the improvement of market atmosphere, the enthusiasm for overseas procurement has also improved.
The supply in the US market has decreased, and exports have slightly decreased
In addition to the stabilization of the Chinese market leading to an improvement in overseas procurement enthusiasm, some devices in the US market have been shut down for a long time, resulting in a decrease in supply and exports, resulting in a decrease in international market supply and opportunities for exports in the Chinese market.
Gradually improving procurement enthusiasm in overseas markets
The overseas market mainly focuses on the Indian market. After a large number of purchases from December last year to January this year, the purchasing enthusiasm in the Indian market weakened in the following months, especially with a significant decrease in procurement volume from the Chinese market. However, there was a slight rebound again from May to June. From the trend chart of China's exports to India, it can be seen that after the export volume to India reached its peak in April, it gradually rebounded from May to June. This is in line with the previously mentioned stabilization of the Chinese market, which has boosted overseas demand, and the decline in US exports, which has brought opportunities for Chinese exports.
Export volume may continue to rebound from July to August
In July, China's export orders were further increased, especially with a significant increase in overseas buying in mid July. India's purchasing enthusiasm increased, and domestic export prices continued to rise. As of July 20th, the FOB price of calcium carbide PVC resin in Tianjin had risen to around 745 US dollars/ton, an increase of 45 US dollars/ton compared to early July. The export price of ethylene PVC resin was about 20 US dollars/ton higher. With the increase in export orders, the pending delivery volume of domestic PVC resin powder exports has also increased to around 210000 tons, an increase of around 70000 tons compared to early July.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the follow-up is still in the process of bottoming out, and the goodwill of overseas buying will still be maintained. However, some devices in the United States have maintenance plans from August to September, and Taiwan Formosa Plastics also has maintenance plans in August, which will reduce the supply in the international market. The follow-up will continue to be beneficial for the export of PVC resin powder to the Chinese market, so it is expected that the actual delivery volume of PVC resin powder export will further increase from July to August.
