According to customs data, in October 2023, the export volume of PVC (polyvinyl chloride) from China was 141800 tons, an increase of 46.73% year-on-year and a decrease of 36.8% month on month. The average monthly export price was 776.1 yuan. From January to October this year, the total export volume was 1.9078 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.68%.
Since 2023, China's PVC exports have shown a continuous increasing trend. On the one hand, PVC companies actively seek cooperation opportunities overseas and make up for the insufficient domestic demand by increasing external demand; On the other hand, demand in regions such as India and Southeast Asia is strong, and the demand for PVC in China is also increasing. From 2024, it is expected that PVC exports will remain high, both in terms of price and demand factors.
PVC, as an important organic synthetic material, is one of the five universal synthetic resins. Widely used in real estate, healthcare, food, packaging, toys, automobiles, household appliances and other fields.
The growth trend of PVC powder exports in 2023 is mainly due to three waves of export orders and increased volume within the year. The first time was from the end of last year to January 2023, supported by strong expectations of stable domestic growth and a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Domestic PVC rebounded, and overseas customers such as India took advantage of the situation to buy at the bottom. The second time was from July to August, due to factors such as centralized maintenance of some equipment by Formosa Plastics, global supply decreased, and China's exports faced an opportunity. The third time was in late October, as overseas inventories such as India were digested and a new round of procurement cycles were released, driving an increase in domestic exports and to some extent easing market supply pressure, becoming a major variable in market prices.
In order to meet the needs of overseas markets, many domestic enterprises are also actively exploring overseas markets this year.
In recent years, the export increment of Pvc Resin in China has significantly increased, one of the main reasons being that domestic supply exceeds demand, leading to a decline in prices and providing opportunities for exports. Yu Jiangzhong explained that from 2019 to 2023, the supply and demand fundamentals of PVC Resin shifted from tight balance to oversupply; The market was in a tight equilibrium state from 2019 to 2021; The market has evolved into oversupply from 2022 to 2023. In 2023, the new production capacity of PVC powder will be concentrated and released, increasing the industry's supply exceeding demand. The increasing pressure on the supply side has brought significant pressure to the price of PVC resin from 2022 to 2023. The price of PVC fluctuated between 5600-6500 yuan/ton in 2023, creating a historically low price range and providing opportunities for domestic PVC exports. Major suppliers are seeking overseas opportunities.
Since the winter wave in the United States in 2020, the global PVC powder supply structure has changed, which has also brought opportunities for China's PVC resin exports. With the increase in domestic PVC material production capacity, foreign exports have to some extent benefited the domestic PVC industry's operation.
In 2023, the production load of facilities in the United States increased to over 78%. According to relevant data statistics, the United States exported 2.26 million tons from January to September, an increase of 35.3% compared to last year's 1.67 million tons. Despite the increase in supply from the United States, Chinese PVC export prices have a significant advantage over other regions in Asia.
Due to the strong export of PVC powder since 2023, the expected annual export volume is 2.2578 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.86%.
By the end of 2023 and looking ahead to 2024, global PVC production capacity is expected to continue to grow, driven by the continuous investment of new production capacity in China. The supply of PVC is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and global sales competition pressure is expected to increase. From historical data, China's PVC exports have shifted from historical opportunities to price advantage competition, and a group of production enterprises with complete production, product quality, sales channels, and foreign trade sales construction have emerged domestically.
