Introduction
In October, the maintenance of PVC powder production enterprises decreased compared to September, but the production capacity involved was relatively large. The theoretical maintenance loss slightly increased compared to September, and the industry's operating load rate slightly increased compared to September. Social inventory and production enterprise factory inventory first increased and then decreased, and the absolute value of inventory slightly increased compared to the end of September. The overall supply level has improved. In November, production enterprises had fewer maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply level of Pvc Resin in November may slightly increase compared to October. The overall spot supply is still relatively abundant.
The amount of maintenance losses has slightly increased, but the industry's operating load rate has increased
In previous years, October was usually a month when PVC powder production enterprises had relatively few inspections. Although there were not many inspections in October 2023, the production capacity involved was relatively large, and the theoretical maintenance loss slightly increased compared to September, which was significantly higher compared to previous years. Although there was an increase in maintenance losses in October, the operating load rate of some production enterprises increased. Therefore, the operating load rate of the PVC powder industry in October slightly increased compared to September. In addition, there was one more natural day in October compared to September, resulting in an increase in monthly production compared to September.
According to statistical data, the loss of PVC powder solely due to maintenance and parking in October was 285400 tons, an increase of 123400 tons compared to September. The operating load rate of the PVC Resin powder industry in October was 77.51%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points compared to September. The production of PVC powder in October was 2.08866 million tons, an increase of 67.316 million tons compared to September.
The overall sellable inventory of production enterprises has increased, and the inventory in the factory area has slightly increased compared to the end of September
In terms of inventory of production enterprises, during the National Day holiday of downstream and traders in early October, the order volume of PVC powder production enterprises significantly decreased, and the increase in available inventory and factory inventory was relatively significant. Subsequently, as the holiday ended and downstream and traders resumed receiving goods, the inventory of production enterprises gradually decreased. In October, the supply of PVC powder increased compared to the previous month, and downstream product enterprises did not improve in construction, At the end of the month, both the factory inventory and available inventory of the sample production enterprise increased compared to the previous month. According to statistical data, the available inventory of sample production enterprises at the end of October was -164800 tons, an increase of 44100 tons compared to the end of September; The inventory of the sample production enterprise's factory area is 359600 tons, an increase of 51400 tons compared to the end of September.
Social inventory of PVC resin powder in October
In terms of social inventory, the operating load rate of the PVC powder industry in October slightly increased compared to September. At the beginning of the month, most downstream product enterprises had holidays and shutdowns. The increase in social inventory was significant in early October. Although social inventory gradually decreased in the future, the absolute value of inventory increased compared to the end of September and was also at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. At the end of October, the inventory of PVC powder samples in the East/South China warehouse was 375000 tons, an increase of 11200 tons compared to the end of September.
It is expected that the supply level of PVC resin in November will slightly increase compared to October
Most PVC powder production enterprises undergo maintenance in spring and autumn. As the weather cools down, the number of PVC powder production enterprises that plan to undergo maintenance gradually decreases. In previous years, October December was usually a month with relatively low maintenance losses. However, in October 2023, there were large-scale enterprise maintenance, resulting in theoretical maintenance losses still remaining at a relatively high level. With the gradual recovery of production enterprises that have undergone initial maintenance, and there are fewer known enterprises that plan to undergo maintenance in November, It is expected that the maintenance losses in November will decrease compared to October, and correspondingly, the industry's operating load rate may further increase compared to October. It is expected that the theoretical maintenance loss of PVC powder in November will be around 250000 tons, and the operating load rate of the PVC powder industry may be around 79%.
November is usually the month when the real estate industry starts to gradually weaken. In the traditional peak season from September to October 2023, downstream demand did not show a significant improvement. Currently, downstream pipe and profile product enterprises are operating weakly, and it is expected that overall domestic demand will still be weak in November; In mid to late October, the enthusiasm of foreign customers to purchase domestic goods has increased, and some production enterprises have received new export orders. Overall, there were limited changes in the supply and demand of PVC powder in November. It is expected that social inventory may be slightly depleted in November, and production enterprise factory inventory may be slightly accumulated.
