In September, the growth of phosphoric ACID market far exceeded expectations.
Since the beginning of September, the price of yellow phosphorus has increased greatly for two consecutive weeks, and the phosphoric acid market continues to rise with it. Although it showed an upward trend last week, the mood in the industry is relatively stable. However, the continuous upward trend this week has made the price break through the highest in history, and the atmosphere in the venue has obviously become tense. First, because yellow phosphorus is still unable to predict the upward space temporarily, the cost pressure of phosphoric acid enterprises is too high and the profits continue to shrink; Second, under the pressure of high price and tight supply of yellow phosphorus, enterprise construction will continue to decrease and the market supply gap will increase; Third, although there is no significant impact on some terminals with less usage, it will continue to increase their wait-and-see and resistance. The fluctuation of the change of mentality in the field is stronger than that of the power rationing in Yunnan at the beginning of May, resulting in the rise of yellow phosphorus.
Analysis from the distribution area of phosphoric acid.
At present, due to the reduction of phosphoric acid market output in East China, the supply is very tight. Although manufacturers frequently adjust prices, they are still not as fast as the rising speed of yellow phosphorus. In addition to the tight supply and the fluctuation of raw materials, enterprises limit the signing amount, and the later commencement may be affected. The southwest region has also been adjusted to high prices. There are only a few start-up enterprises in this region. Individual manufacturers also have the problem of tight supply due to their own raw materials. Export orders in South China are not optimistic. Some large factories have temporarily switched to domestic sales, but there is still pressure due to the impact of high priced raw materials. At present, the price of raw materials is very unstable, so although there are foreign inquiries, most local enterprises have temporarily not quoted or received orders. The ex factory reference price of phosphoric acid purified water in East China is 10500 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of industrial grade phosphoric acid purified water in Southwest China is 9200-9500 yuan / ton; The factory price of purified water in South China is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the FOB price of Food Grade Phosphoric Acid in 35kg package is 1550-1594 dollars / ton.
Wet acid purification.
The price of wet acid also rose as expected this week. This time, the quotation of various manufacturers increased by an average of 900 yuan / ton, and there was a single discussion on some downstream. The increase of wet process acid promotes the continuous increase of its demand and the continuous signing of orders. However, due to the unstable operation of a mainstream manufacturer, resulting in the reduction of output, the supply of wet acid is very tight. It is reported that the manufacturer adopts limited supply to traders and downstream enterprises, and the bulk water of Wengfu wet acid in East China is sent to the reference quotation of 8300-8500 yuan / ton.
According to the current situation of phosphoric acid market, it has different effects on the downstream market.
Among them, a few terminal manufacturers have sufficient phosphoric acid stock in the early stage, which is expected to maintain production for about 1-2 months; Part of phosphoric acid has little impact on its cost and price, and there is still room for procurement, but the wait-and-see mood is getting stronger. At present, some phosphate products and iron phosphate manufacturers have obvious downstream impact. Food grade Sodium Tripolyphosphate and Sodium Hexametaphosphate have high requirements for raw materials, and the substitutability of raw materials is small. In addition, there are few manufacturers and the operating rate is limited in recent years. Although the consumption of terminal enterprises is small, it is just needed. However, the price of upstream phosphoric acid is rising, and its production cost has increased significantly, resulting in the reduction of commencement and output, which also leads to tight supply. In terms of iron phosphate, phosphoric acid and ferrous sulfate are the main raw materials for the production of iron phosphate. However, due to the low price of ferrous sulfate, the impact on it is very limited, so the main cost pressure comes from phosphoric acid. The rising price of phosphoric acid is transmitted to the existence cycle of iron phosphate, but it is also increasing the quotation with phosphoric acid. This year, the use of iron phosphate far exceeded expectations, which further caused supply pressure on the abnormal phosphoric acid market.
On the whole, the market price of phosphoric acid still shows an upward trend in the near future. The scarcity and high price of yellow phosphorus will lead to the continuous reduction of the start-up of phosphoric acid manufacturers, and the downstream supply gap will continue to increase.
