This month, the average operating rate of PVC production enterprises was 74.36%, with a month on month decrease of 2.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%. Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method was 74.53%, with a month on month decrease of 1.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.79%. The operating rate of ethylene process was 73.54%, decreased by 4.68% month on month and increased by 4.37% year on year. Last week, the overall operating load of domestic PVC enterprises increased, and new maintenance enterprises such as Ningxia Yingli te, Inner Mongolia Dongxing and Tianjin Dagu were added, but the preliminary maintenance enterprises Taizhou Liancheng, Jin Yuyuan, Yili Nangang, Xinjiang Tianye and Xinfa gradually started operation.
PVC social inventory decreased by 12.08% month on month. Film and other soft products factories mostly produce according to orders. PVC pipes, profiles, flooring products, plates, cables, pelleting, high-end medical and other fields continue to produce with high production rate, which will continue to consume social inventory. This year, the planned new production capacity is 3.02 million tons / year, and the annual growth rate is 10.97% of the high value in recent years. With the substantial increase in production and the impact of over 100000 tons of additional imports in recent two months, the inventory can still continue to decrease, while the overall social inventory increase is only 26400 tons, which shows that the downstream demand is not weak. By the end of last week, domestic PVC social inventory decreased by 11.01% month on month and increased by 3.90% year on year. Among them, the inventory in East China was 156000 tons, with a month on month decrease of 12.36% and a year-on-year increase of 6.12%; the inventory in South China was 22700 tons, with a decrease of 0.44% on a regional basis and a decrease of 9.20% on a year-on-year basis. According to the law of the past years, social inventory will have a wave of depletion before the middle of December.
With the cold weather in the northern hemisphere, the second epidemic has broken out in the world, and some European and American countries have been closed down for the second time due to the excessive number of cases. The worldwide economic recession and the decline of fuel demand continue to aggravate. In addition, OPEC production will increase selectively after the year. Some oil producing countries such as Libya will increase production or expand production so as to expand their position and supply share in the crude oil market, which also has a blow to the market. Regional conflicts and other factors have also intensified the decline speed and space of international crude oil price.
In November, there are still maintenance plans for Yingli, HuaSu, Erdos and other units, but the overall maintenance loss is less than before. According to the latest real estate data released in September, the sales growth rate of 7.3% in August was still good, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to September continued to improve. In addition, the level of land acquisition by developers this year is extremely high, and under the suppression of the "three red lines" policy, construction efforts may be accelerated. PVC downstream pipes, doors and windows profiles and other decoration materials will benefit from the construction needs of real estate. Affected by the price rise of PVC, downstream enterprises generally maintain low stock operation, and the inventory is maintained at about one week. The low level of social inventory and downstream inventory is beneficial to the price of PVC. The short-term centralized maintenance and production cost increase have a supporting effect on PVC. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by strong operation.
