Dioctyl Terephthalate (DOTP) is an organic compound with molecular formula C24H38O4. It is a transparent oily liquid, insoluble in water and soluble in general organic solvents. Dioctyl terephthalate is a main Plasticizer with excellent performance for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics. Compared with the commonly used diisooctyl phthalate (DOP), it has the advantages of heat resistance, cold resistance, volatile resistance, extraction resistance, softness and good electrical insulation performance, and shows excellent durability, soapy water resistance and low softness in products.
In the first half of 2022, the domestic DOTP market as a whole showed a strong volatility trend. Affected by the large fluctuation of upstream octanol, the DOTP market showed a broad volatility trend around the Spring Festival. Before the Spring Festival, based on the overall increase in the demand for orders at home and abroad, especially the demand for cable materials, packaging film and other industries, the enterprise orders continued to rise in a centralized manner, the shipments of plasticizers DOP, DOTP and other products increased, and the strong surge of octanol supported, and the DOTP market rose rapidly and substantially before and after the Spring Festival. However, when the market opened after the Spring Festival, based on the fact that the downstream soft material enterprises started to recover relatively slowly, and the actual shipments of plasticizers failed to continue to rise and follow up, the market immediately turned down, and the decline was also continuously amplified. Take the Shandong market as an example. At the beginning of 2022, the price was 9900 yuan/ton, rising to the February high of 13100 yuan/ton, up 32.3%. The subsequent market fell to 11500 yuan/ton, down 12.2%.
However, with the gradual progress of cost digestion, after entering the second quarter, the demand of the terminal soft material industry recovered slightly, the economic recovery performance was less than expected, the superimposed overseas epidemic situation was still repeated, and the supply chain was significantly damaged. However, with the stimulation of the global super loose monetary policy and other factors, the demand side was rarely recovered first. In addition to the comprehensive impact of extreme weather and geopolitics, the chemical supply gap was fully spread in major economies such as Europe and the United States, Therefore, domestic and foreign export orders increased. Specifically, at the level of industrial chain, the export of glove materials downstream of DOTP continued to increase, and the export of PVC film, leather and other finished products increased simultaneously. Therefore, the market volume and price in the second quarter also maintained a high level, and the overall trend showed a strong and volatile trend. From the above figure - DOTP national market average price trend chart, we can see that the strong operation of the market continued until the end of the second quarter.
However, since then, with the overall industry demand growth slowing down, and the inventory level of finished products gradually accumulated, while the supply chain repair in Europe and the United States and other countries, the order volume of PVC products fell, and the growth of domestic and foreign demand gradually weakened. After the third quarter, the market as a whole entered a downward range, the cost transmission resistance continued to rise, and the profit level of DOTP continued to decline. From September to October, based on the dual-control policy of energy consumption, enterprises in the upstream octanol and DOTP regions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined, but the downturn cycle of the downstream soft material market continued, the demand recovery was less than expected, the industry downturn continued, and the DOTP market was dominated by narrow shocks. From the middle of June, the market entered a slump mode, which lasted until the middle of July. The price fell from 12000 yuan/ton to 8400 yuan/ton, with a drop of up to 30%, and reached the lowest price in the year.
In 2022, the overall performance of the domestic DOTP market price trend was less than expected, and the overall high and wide fluctuation trend of the market in the first half of the year was dominated by consolidation, until the inflection point of the market entered the downward range after the third quarter. Due to the large decline of the market affected by the epidemic in 2020, the base was seriously lowered, so the rise of the DOTP market in 2021 reached the highest level in history. The annual average price of the domestic DOTP market in 2021 was 12750 yuan/ton, up more than 80% from the same period in 2020, and the average price of the market in 2019 was also up more than 50%. However, the domestic economic growth slowed down in 2022, the prosperity of the plasticizer industry was less than expected, and the demand side was weak and difficult to change, In 2022, the annual average price of DOTP in the domestic market will be 10565 yuan/ton, down more than 17% from the same period in 2021.
At present, it has entered 2023. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic DOTP market has ushered in a wave of rebound trend. Although there is limited room to explore the rise, the sentiment of the merchants is obvious. The main driving factor of this market rise is still the replenishment of raw materials and downstream stage. The performance of raw material octanol is still strong. For DOTP, the cost boosting effect still exists, and the amount of replenishment in the downstream is relatively concentrated, so the merchants take advantage of the trend to increase. However, after the New Year's Day, the stock cycle is short, and the rebound time and space are limited. After the short rise, the DOTP market has recovered.
With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream and traders' demand for DOTP will continue to decline in the later stage, and the market trading will basically stagnate in 1-2 weeks before the Spring Festival; Some manufacturers of DOTP will be in a shutdown state during the Spring Festival. It is expected that the start of DOTP industry will drop to about 40% during the holiday, which can obviously avoid excessive inventory accumulation; After the Spring Festival, terminals and traders will return to the market around the 15th of the first month, but there is still some uncertainty or delay in returning to the market. However, the return of terminals to the market is relatively concentrated, and the demand for DOTP may increase to some extent at that time, so it is expected that the plasticizer market will still have a positive cycle after the holiday. However, it is also necessary to guard against the risk of market decline when the trading volume is cold under the situation of short rise.
