1、 Overview and review
The data shows that the domestic Carbon Black quotation on December 31 was 12050 yuan/ton, up 31.34% from 9175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. In 2022, the carbon black market will fluctuate greatly as a whole. It has experienced two "ups and downs". For the first time, it will fall back after reaching a high in the end of April, and for the second time, it will fall back after reaching a historical high in November. On the whole, the carbon black market price at the end of 2022 will increase significantly compared with the beginning of the year.
2、 Commodity quotation
1. Price trend
Stage I: Weak consolidation stage
The market price of carbon black in January and February was weak and stable. In terms of cost, the price of coal tar is at a high level. The domestic market demand for high-temperature coal tar is weakening, and the auction price of new orders is fluctuating. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market declined by a narrow margin, and the overall weakness was consolidated. Downstream, the tire market capacity further recovered this week, and the operating rate of semi steel tire and all steel tire sample manufacturers increased significantly. In order to supplement the previous orders, the tire factories started to work faster after the festival. In addition, some smaller enterprises are also in the stage of gradual recovery, which has led the tire sample enterprises to start to work significantly. In terms of commencement, recently, the operating rate of domestic carbon black industry was 54.07%, down 1.11% month on month and 22.28% year-on-year
The procurement of product enterprises was less than expected, and the carbon black production enterprises started at a relatively low level.
The second stage: the rising stage
From March to May, the price of carbon black market continued to rise, reaching a historical high. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of domestic high-temperature coal tar market was driven, and the auction price of new orders rose again. The supply and demand of domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued to be tight, and the auction price of mainstream new orders in Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui and other regions rose significantly due to the influence of pre festival stocking factors. In addition, due to the impact of public health events in some regions, the logistics resources are tight and the freight price keeps rising. The cost side support of carbon black production enterprises is strong, and the quotation of carbon black enterprises keeps rising. In terms of supply: a large enterprise in Shandong stopped production for maintenance, and some carbon black enterprises reduced production burden to control costs. Influenced by policies and other factors in Shanxi, some carbon black enterprises started low, and the supply of carbon black market was tight. Demand: Affected by the international situation, the enthusiasm of purchasing carbon black in the European market has increased, and China's carbon black exports have increased significantly, supporting the domestic carbon black market price rise. Downstream, the overall operating load of tire enterprises is stable at this stage. Although the operating rate of tire enterprises has declined compared with the early stage, the tire enterprises still need support.
The third stage: falling stage
In June, the carbon black market price fell, with a cumulative decline of 900-1300 yuan/ton. On the cost side, the auction price of raw coal tar has generally risen, resulting in further pressure on the cost of carbon black manufacturers. At present, coke enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of coal tar in the market has not changed significantly, but the performance of downstream products continues to be poor. In terms of supply: there is no obvious fluctuation in the start-up load of carbon black enterprises. Most enterprises have maintained stable start-up, and the market supply is sufficient. However, the number of new orders is limited, and some carbon black enterprises have experienced inventory pressure. On the demand side, the downstream tires of the domestic carbon black market operate at low load, the finished products of tire enterprises in the main market are shipped slowly, and the downstream performance of the tire market continues to be sluggish. The inventory of tire enterprises is high. The traditional off-season is coming, and there is little bargaining on new orders on the market, which leads to the lack of pricing voice of carbon black. For tire manufacturers, they can only implement the policy of "delivery first, pricing later". Under the circumstances of high tire inventory and pessimistic future market demand, some tire manufacturers continue to control production and reduce inventory.
The fourth stage: the rising stage
From July to November, the carbon black market price rose as a whole, with a cumulative increase of 2100-2900 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, the tight supply pattern of raw coal tar market has intensified, the price continues to rise, the price continues to remain high, and the coke enterprises in some regions have increased their efforts to limit production. In addition, due to the impact of public health events in some regions, logistics and transportation are not smooth, and the tight supply pattern of raw coal tar market has intensified, driving the price of coal tar to rise slightly. Supply and demand: Affected by the high level of raw coal tar, the carbon black market is losing more and more money. The carbon black production enterprises are not profitable. Under the high cost, the carbon black enterprises are not enthusiastic to start construction. In addition, the carbon black enterprises in some regions are limited to start construction, so the overall construction is likely to decline. In terms of downstream tire enterprises, there is no obvious improvement at present. Downstream terminal tire enterprises are underoperating, and their demand for carbon black is general. Duowei holds the purchase on demand, with limited new orders and sporadic deals.
Stage 5: Falling stage
In December, the carbon black market price fell as a whole, with a cumulative decline of 400-800 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, some coke enterprises started to work with an increase in the supply of coal tar. In addition, downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises have strong resistance to high price coal tar. The price of coal tar has fallen back, and the cost end support of carbon black enterprises has weakened. In terms of supply: some carbon black enterprises stopped production for maintenance, dragging the overall commencement of carbon black sample enterprises down significantly. In terms of demand: the downstream terminal tire enterprises are not operating enough, and the demand for carbon black is poor. In addition, some enterprises are slow in shipping, and the finished product inventory is sufficient. In the short term, the merchants are not willing to replenish, mainly consuming inventory. In general, the weak demand side dragged the carbon black market, and the price fell continuously.
3、 Capacity output
In 2022, the total capacity of China's carbon black market will be about 8.828 million tons, an increase of 128000 tons compared with last year, an increase of 1.47% month on month, and the overall capacity will increase slightly. The carbon black production capacity in East China and North China accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 45% and 40% of the total carbon black production capacity respectively.
From January to November 2022, China's carbon black output will be 4.5862 million tons. Affected by public health events and high costs, logistics and transportation across the country will be limited, and carbon black construction will decline. The output will decrease by 11.06% compared with the same period last year, and the output will decrease by about 570000 tons.
IV. Industrial chain
1 Carbon black upstream industry
The main raw materials for carbon black production are coal tar, ethylene tar and other raw materials. Coal tar is a by-product of coking; Ethylene tar is
A by-product of refining to produce ethylene. Therefore, the upstream of carbon black industry is coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry.
According to statistics, the main components of carbon black feedstock in China are coal tar, anthracene oil and ethylene tar, accounting for 49.2%, 34.2% and 16.6% of the total raw materials respectively. Among them, coal tar and anthracene oil account for more than 80% and are the most important raw materials. Therefore, the domestic carbon black industry is greatly affected by the coal chemical industry.
2 Carbon black downstream related industries
Carbon black (except white carbon black) is mainly used as a reinforcing agent and filler for rubber. Its consumption accounts for about half of the rubber consumption in the whole rubber products. Carbon black for rubber accounts for 94% of the total carbon black, of which about 60% is used in tire manufacturing.
In addition to rubber products, carbon black is also used as ink, paint and And UV light shielding agent for plastic products. It is also an important additive in many other products, such as electrodes, dry cells, resistors, cosmetics and polishing pastes.
