Introduction
Recently, the General Administration of Customs of China released the import and export data of December 2021. The import and export pattern of PVC powder in China has changed. The net import since 2018 has changed to net export in 2021, and the annual export volume has reached the highest value in recent years.
In 2021, the export volume of PVC powder increased significantly compared with previous years, reaching a high point in recent years
Source: General Administration of Customs of the people's Republic of China
In 2021, the export of PVC powder increased significantly. In mid February, the United States encountered an extreme cold wave, resulting in the accidental shutdown of nearly half of the PVC powder plants in the United States, and the shortage of international supply brought opportunities for China's export. In August, the United States was affected by a hurricane, and some PVC powder plants suffered force majeure again, which promoted the domestic export of PVC powder to increase again. According to the customs data, the export volume of PVC powder in 2021 was 1.7543 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 178.98%.
China's PVC powder export activity increased significantly in 2021, mainly due to the shortage of goods in the international market caused by the strong demand in the United States and the force majeure of the device, which brought opportunities for China's export. China's goods flow more to India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and South America, while the proportion to countries such as Central Asia decreases. In 2021, the proportion of general trade exports remained above 80%, followed by processing with imported materials, and the proportion of other trade forms was very limited.
In 2021, the import volume of PVC powder decreased significantly compared with previous years, reaching the low point in recent years
In 2021, the import volume of PVC powder was 398900 tons, 58.07% lower than that in 2020, at a significantly lower level in recent five years. In 2021, the import volume of general trade mode of PVC powder decreased significantly compared with 2021. China's main trading partners are still Taiwan, Japan and the United States.
In 2021, the proportion of China's PVC powder import trade changed significantly. In 2020, the downstream demand of domestic PVC powder was good, the international price was lower than the domestic price for a long time, and the import volume of PVC powder in general trade increased significantly; However, the window of PVC powder import arbitrage was closed most of the time in 2021, the enthusiasm of traders to import PVC powder decreased significantly compared with previous years, the proportion of imports in general trade mode decreased significantly, and the import trade mode of PVC powder in China changed to feed processing.
In 2021, the import and export pattern of PVC powder in China will change from net import to net export
In 2021, as the export arbitrage window of PVC powder remained open for most of the time, PVC powder manufacturers and traders had more export orders, the export volume of general trade of PVC powder increased significantly, and the import volume of general trade decreased. China's import and export pattern of PVC powder changed from net import to net export in 2020, and the net export volume of PVC powder reached 1355400 tons in 2021, Accounting for 5.93% of the total supply of PVC powder in China in 2021. The export of PVC powder has differentiated the domestic supply of PVC powder to a certain extent. When the annual consumption of PVC powder in 2021 is reduced by 0.99% compared with that in 2020, it has given some support to the overall rise of spot price in PVC powder period.
Forecast of import and export pattern in 2022
PVC powder is mainly used in the middle and back end of real estate. Generally, it takes about two years for real estate to be started and completed. At present, the data of new construction from the beginning of 2020 is at a low level. Therefore, it is expected that the overall completion will also weaken in the next few years, and the demand growth of PVC powder in real estate in 2022 may be limited. The import and export volume of PVC powder is mainly affected by the import and export volume of general trade mode. At present, there are still some export orders to be delivered. When the domestic demand increment is expected to be limited in 2022, it is expected that the export arbitrage window of PVC powder will continue to open for a long time. It is expected that China's import and export pattern of PVC powder will remain in the state of net export in 2022, However, if the long-term abnormality of foreign devices does not occur in 2021, resulting in the reduction of foreign supply, it is expected that China's net export of PVC powder will be reduced compared with 2021.
