1、 Polyvinyl Alcohol product introduction
PVA, also known as polyvinyl alcohol, was first discovered by German chemists in 1924. Until 1938, Japan Cangfu Company (now Kuraray) and Chung Spin Company developed synthetic fibers with calcium carbide as raw materials. In 1950, the world's first industrial plant was officially put into production in Cangshi Company of Japan.
PVA products can be divided into low degree of polymerization (DP<1000), medium degree of polymerization (10002000) according to different degrees of polymerization, and can also be divided into low degree of alcoholysis (below 80), partial alcoholysis (79~89), moderate alcoholysis (91~98) and complete alcoholysis (98~99) according to different degrees of alcoholysis. Therefore, the four digit number of the products on the market adopts the combination of the two. For example, the DP of the 1799 product is about 1700, and the alcoholysis degree is about 99%.
2、 Polyvinyl alcohol industry chain
The upstream of PVA is the main basic chemical raw materials, including coal, Acetic Acid, vinyl acetate, etc. The downstream is mainly used to produce vinylon fiber, adhesive, textile slurry, PVB, etc. The terminal demand includes synthetic fiber, building glue, white latex, glass intermediate membrane, biodegradable PVA thin film, etc.
3、 Analysis on the development status of global polyvinyl alcohol industry
1. Capacity output
In recent years, foreign enterprises have almost no new/eliminated capacity of PVA. From 2018 to 2021, there will be 12 foreign PVA enterprises, with a total capacity of 753000 tons/year; In 2018-2021, the total global PVA production capacity will be about 185, 175, 175, 175 million tons, of which the capacity of 100000 tons reduced in 2019 is due to the withdrawal of the domestic enterprise Shanxi Sanwei due to environmental problems. From 2018 to 2021, the global PVA output will be about 139/136/135/125 million tons, and the overall consumption scale will also be stable.
2. Downstream demand structure
From the perspective of global consumption structure, in 2021, the consumption of polymerization aids, PVB, adhesives, and textile sizes on polyvinyl alcohol will account for 24%, 15%, 14%, and 14% of the total consumption of polyvinyl alcohol respectively, totaling 67%.
4、 Analysis on the development status of polyvinyl alcohol industry in China
1. Capacity output
Driven by the supply side reform and environmental protection policies, the domestic PVA industry entered the supply contraction stage in 17-19. At the end of 19, the total production capacity was reduced to 996000 tons, a net decrease of about 250000 tons compared with the end of 16. From 2019 to 2021, the total production capacity was stabilized at 996000 tons, and there was no change in the production enterprises (7) and their respective capacities. In terms of output, since 2019, the domestic polyvinyl alcohol output has shown a downward trend, from 784000 tons in 2019 to 653300 tons in 2021, down 130700 tons, a decline of 16.67%. The domestic supply of polyvinyl alcohol has been tightened.
2. Import and export
In recent years, domestic PVA consumption has also increased slightly, but exports still have a certain increase. According to the General Administration of Customs, in 2021, domestic PVA exports will be 168000 tons, CAGR (15-21 years) will be 12.36%, and imports will be 43200 tons. As of January July 2022, China's PVA import volume was 20200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.29%, and the export volume was 126700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.73%. In terms of import and export amount, according to statistics, as of January July 2022, China's PVA import amount was US $70 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.95%, and the export amount was US $479 million, a year-on-year increase of 141.63%.
Compared with foreign countries, PVA in China has low added value and is mainly used in traditional fields. In recent years, the export unit price of polyvinyl alcohol in China has been lower than the import unit price. By 2021, the export unit price of polyvinyl alcohol in China is 2352.79 dollars/ton, and the import unit price is 2773.51 dollars/ton. The import unit price is 420.72 dollars/ton higher than the export unit price. However, in recent years, the price difference between the import unit price and the export unit price of domestic polyvinyl alcohol has gradually narrowed. According to statistics, the export unit price of PVA in China from January to July 2022 is higher than the import unit price, indicating that domestic products are gradually transforming to high-end products, which is expected to gradually realize import substitution.
3. Downstream demand structure
From the perspective of domestic consumption structure of PVA, the consumption of polymerization aids, fabric size and adhesives on polyvinyl alcohol accounts for 38%, 20% and 12% of the total consumption of polyvinyl alcohol respectively, accounting for 70% in total.
5、 Analysis on the Competition Pattern of PVA Industry
1. Global market pattern
According to statistics, as of the first half of 2022, the global production of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) is mainly concentrated in a few countries and regions such as China, Japan and the United States, with a total plant capacity of about 1.85 million tons, of which the Asia Pacific region is the main production region, accounting for more than 80% of the world's total output. The representative enterprises in the world mainly include Japan Keli Co., Ltd., Japan Shuishui Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., Japan Synthetic Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., Anhui Wanwei High tech Materials Co., Ltd., China Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd., Taiwan Changchun Group, Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environmental Protection Materials Co., Ltd. and Ningxia Dadi Recycling Development Co., Ltd.
2. China's market pattern
In terms of domestic market, according to statistics, in the first half of 2022, the total capacity of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) in mainland China will be 1.096 million tons (excluding Taiwan), and the new capacity will be Hunan Xiangwei Co., Ltd. (100000 tons/year). China is the largest polyvinyl alcohol producer in the world.
In 2018, there were 10 major polyvinyl alcohol producers in China, of which CR5 accounted for 70.23%, and Taiwan Changchun Chemical (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd., the largest producer, accounted for 18.39% of the production capacity. Affected by the clearance of backward production capacity of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry, the concentration of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry will increase in the first half of 2022. There will be a total of 8 major manufacturers, including CR5 of 77.55%, an increase of 7.32 percentage points. The largest manufacturer, Wanwei Hi tech, has 28.28% of the production capacity. The industry pattern will be gradually optimized, and the leading enterprises have obvious advantages.
6、 Analysis of polyvinyl alcohol production process
At present, the main production processes of PVA include calcium carbide process, ethylene process and methane process. The calcium carbide process is simple in operation, low in production cost and easy to separate by-products, but the calcium carbide slag in the process causes great environmental pollution; Ethylene production process is the synthesis of ethylene from petroleum cracking or ethanol dehydration, and the products produced are of good quality; The methane production process is technically difficult, but the process can comprehensively utilize the acetylene generated in the production process.
At present, the production processes of polyvinyl alcohol abroad mainly include ethylene process and calcium carbide acetylene process, of which the ethylene process accounts for 98.01% and the calcium carbide acetylene process accounts for 1.99%.
Domestic production processes of polyvinyl alcohol mainly include calcium carbide acetylene process, petroleum ethylene process, natural gas acetylene process and biological ethylene process. Among them, calcium carbide acetylene process accounts for 62.25%, followed by petroleum ethylene process and natural gas acetylene process, accounting for 16.67% and 16.06% respectively.
7、 Development trend of polyvinyl alcohol industry in the future
On the one hand, it is developing towards high degree of polymerization (high viscosity) and high refined products, and has good performance in such fields as high grade adhesives, high-strength and high modulus fibers, PVB, PVA films, collodion foams, sand fixation and cement reinforcers; On the other hand, it is developing towards high value-added special products with low degree of polymerization, partial alcoholysis or low degree of alcoholysis, which are mainly used in water-soluble adhesives, water-soluble fibers, polymerization aids, medical, electronic and other fields with special requirements. With the rapid growth of demand in high-density high-grade textiles, automotive and building safety glass, electronics, medicine and medicine, PVB film, PVA optical film, biodegradable polyvinyl alcohol film and other new PVA products will have great market potential.
