1. Price trend
The successful completion of 2022. Looking at the development of Titanium Dioxide market in this year, from the perspective of price, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide will fall in 2022. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide at the beginning of the year was 20733.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 15933.33 yuan/ton. The price fell by 23.15% during the year.
2. Market analysis
Product quotation
From the perspective of market development in 2022, prices in the first half of the year are basically in a stable stage, with little fluctuation, and prices in the second half of the year are in a rapid decline stage. In November, Longqi sent a letter to raise the price to stabilize the price. At this time, the price of titanium dioxide began to stabilize and stop falling.
In the first quarter, export orders performed well, and the market confidence of titanium dioxide enterprises was good. Before the year, domestic downstream manufacturers mainly hoarded goods moderately before the year. The market rose twice, with a cumulative increase of 1.77% from January to March. The ex factory quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide including tax is mostly 20000-22000 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18000-19500 yuan/ton. After the year, the domestic raw material sulfuric ACID price continued to rise, the enterprise cost was under pressure, and the support was strong. The titanium dioxide market confidence was fair, and the price continued to rise.
In the second quarter, the logistics management and control and the domestic market turnover were light. Affected by logistics control and other factors, transportation is relatively difficult, market supply is shrinking, traders are unstable, and the market price declines with the focus on digesting their own inventory. The cumulative decline from April to June was 3.08%. The ex factory quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide including tax is between 19100-22000 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17800-19000 yuan/ton. The spot market of titanium ore continued to decline, the price of sulfuric acid also continued to decline, and the cost support was weak. At the same time, the performance of the downstream terminal real estate market is poor. Under the superposition of multiple negative factors, the titanium dioxide market fell.
In the third quarter, Longqi guided the price reduction and the titanium dioxide market fell sharply. 7-9 The cumulative decline was 19.85%. The ex factory quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide including tax is mostly between 15500-17000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14500-15500 yuan/ton. Due to the limited power supply and other factors, the titanium dioxide enterprises in southwest China have reduced their production. The market price of raw sulfuric acid fell rapidly, and the cost support was weak. In addition, the domestic titanium dioxide market demand continues to be sluggish, and the manufacturer's inventory pressure is still large.
In the fourth quarter, Dragon Enterprise sent a letter in November to promote stability. The cumulative decline was 2.55% from October 12. The titanium dioxide market is about to enter the off-season, and the demand market for coatings is tepid, especially in the northern market. In November, the group announced that the price would rise, and the prices offered by various manufacturers were flexible, so it was more meaningful to stop the decline. Most domestic rutile titanium dioxide prices are between 15000-17500 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14000-14500 yuan/ton. The price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased. More than 20 domestic titanium dioxide enterprises sent letters to announce the increase, and the international giants Chemurs and Tronox announced the reduction of titanium dioxide production in the fourth quarter, which also benefited the domestic titanium dioxide market and stabilized the market on the whole.
Import and export data
According to customs data, the cumulative import volume of titanium dioxide from January to November 2022 is about 116200 tons, a decrease of 34.06% over the same period last year, and the import volume is about 60000 tons; It is estimated that the annual import volume will be 120000 tons, about 70000 tons less than last year. The domestic market demand is weak, and the import of titanium dioxide in China has declined significantly. The new capacity of domestic chlorinated titanium dioxide increased, and the high-end titanium dioxide imported from abroad decreased accordingly.
According to customs data, from January to November 2022, the total export volume of titanium dioxide was about 1279100 tons, an increase of 8.58% over the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 101100 tons. The export market maintained a stable and rising trend, and the annual export volume is expected to be 1.38 million tons. The export situation in the first half of the year was better than that in the second half, and the overall export market maintained an increasing trend.
Capacity output
According to public data, the cumulative output of titanium dioxide from January to November 2022 is about 3.5755 million tons, up 3% over the same period of last year, with an increase of about 96400 tons, and the annual output is expected to be 3.9 million tons. The enterprises that have increased the output of titanium dioxide this year are mainly, an increase of 11%
The output growth rate was 2%. This year, the newly launched enterprises CITIC Titanium Industry, Yibin Tianyuan, Shengwei Fuquan and Xianghai Titanium Industry had a significant increase in output compared with last year, and the output of more than 20 small and medium-sized enterprises in the market decreased by different degrees compared with last year.
Downstream terminal
From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 12386.3 billion yuan, down 9.8% year on year; Among them, the residential investment was 9401.6 billion yuan, down 9.2%.
From January to November, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8968.57 million square meters, down 6.5% year on year. Among them, the residential construction area was 6339.16 million square meters, down 6.7%. The newly started housing area was 1116.32 million square meters, down 38.9%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 817.34 million square meters, down 39.5%. The completed housing area was 557.09 million square meters, down 19.0%. Among them, the completed residential area was 404.42 million square meters, down 18.4%.
From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1212.5 million square meters, down 23.3% year on year, including the residential sales area, down 26.2%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 11864.8 billion yuan, down 26.6%, of which the sales volume of residential housing was down 28.4%.
At the end of November, the area of commercial housing for sale was 55.203 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. Among them, the residential area for sale increased by 18.0%.
From January to November, the paid in capital of real estate development enterprises was 13631.3 billion yuan, down 25.7% year on year. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1582.3 billion yuan, down 26.9%; The utilization of foreign capital was 6.6 billion yuan, down 26.6%; Self raised funds amounted to 4899.4 billion yuan, down 17.5%; Deposit and advance receipts amounted to 4460.1 billion yuan, down 33.6%; Personal mortgage loans reached 2187 billion yuan, down 26.2%.
On the whole, affected by the economic pressure this year, the sales volume of real estate has gradually declined this year, and the national infrastructure investment index has also continued to decline. The demand growth of the downstream coating industry will slow down. At present, the purchase restriction policy of real estate has been cancelled, and in November, a trillion yuan of large state-owned banks rushed to help the real estate industry, which is good for the current market to a certain extent.
3. Future market forecast
According to the titanium dioxide analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the market price of titanium dioxide will fall sharply in 2022. Affected by the economic situation, the domestic market will be light, but the export market will remain good. The introduction of various favorable policies for real estate before the year will benefit the titanium dioxide market to some extent. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.
