Interpretation of key contents
1. At the end of May, the average market price of Caustic Soda (99% flake soda) was about 4300 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 9.3%.
2. In April 2022, China's caustic soda export volume was 253100 tons; Among them, the export volume of solid alkali is 46000 tons and that of liquid alkali is 207100 tons. From January to April 2022, China's caustic soda exports totaled 942000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 155%. Among them, the export of liquid caustic soda was 768000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 237%, and the export of solid caustic soda was 174000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%.
3. the supply of caustic soda in some regions is tight, and the downstream demand is good. Judging from the current market environment and the tightening of downstream profits of caustic soda, the price of caustic soda will not decrease much in the short term.
Caustic soda continues to rise and the market environment is improving
In 2022, the domestic chemical industry market experienced a counterattack growth. Since February, the prices of most domestic raw materials have been rapidly rising. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic, the upstream enterprises' insufficient operation and output have decreased, and the supply of goods in the market has decreased; On the other hand, the downstream enterprises are short of stock and demand increases; At the same time, the volatility of the international market has pushed up the price of crude oil, resulting in an increase in the production costs of manufacturers. Several factors have pushed the chemical industry to the top of the wave. In the second quarter, the market generally improved, the downstream resumption of production was relatively rapid, and the market price of flake caustic soda continued to rise.
The domestic caustic soda market had a good start in 2022. At the end of May, the average market price of caustic soda (99% flake soda) was about 4300 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 9.321%. Among them, the market price of 32% ionic membrane alkali in East China has risen to about 830 yuan; South China has risen to about 960 yuan; North China has risen to about 740 yuan; The price in Southwest China has risen to about 800 yuan. Judging from the current market environment and the tightening of downstream profits of caustic soda, the price of caustic soda will not decrease much in the short term.
At present, it is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China and East China, and the capacity of caustic soda in the above three regions accounts for 79% of the total capacity of the country. From the distribution of the seven regions, North China is the region with the most concentrated caustic soda production capacity, and Shandong is the province with the largest caustic soda production capacity. With the transfer of PVC industry to the western region, the capacity of caustic soda industry supporting it has gradually increased. Inner Mongolia has become the region with caustic soda capacity second only to Shandong and Jiangsu. The national industrial policy supports the shift of chlor alkali industry to the West. It is expected that China's caustic soda production capacity will further concentrate in the West in the future.
The supply pattern of China's caustic soda industry has remained basically stable. The top three regions in terms of output are North China, Northwest China and East China, accounting for nearly 80% of the country's total output. Among them, the proportion of output in North China decreased by 1% compared with last year, the proportion of output in Northwest China increased by 1%, the proportion of output in East China remained at 20%, the proportion of output in other regions remained unchanged compared with last year, and the proportion of output in southwest, South China and Northeast China was relatively low, between 3-5%. According to the customs data, the national caustic soda output in April 2021 was 3.226 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. From January to April, the national caustic soda output was 12.868 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
China's caustic soda production capacity increased from 39.45 million tons in 2016 to 44.7 million tons in 2020, and the output increased from 32.839 million tons in 2016 to 38.913 million tons in 2021. It is expected that the output of caustic soda will increase to 40.1039 million tons in 2022. At present, caustic soda enterprises mostly rely on the model of supplementing chlorine with caustic soda, which makes the caustic soda industry maintain high load operation and poor profits, resulting in the slowdown in the expansion of caustic soda production capacity in China.
In recent years, driven by the steady promotion of new urbanization, the demand for caustic soda in China has increased rapidly. According to statistics, China's demand for caustic soda reached 37.5447 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 6%. It is expected that China's demand for caustic soda will reach 38.6712 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3%.
In order to relieve the pressure of domestic sales, China's enthusiasm for caustic soda export has increased. According to the customs data, in April 2022, China's caustic soda export volume was 253100 tons; Among them, the export volume of solid alkali is 46000 tons and that of liquid alkali is 207100 tons. From January to April 2022, China's caustic soda exports totaled 942000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 155%. Among them, the export of liquid caustic soda was 768000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 237%, and the export of solid caustic soda was 174000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%.
The downstream consumption of caustic soda in China is mainly in alumina, chemical industry, papermaking, textile printing and dyeing and other industries. The market share of enterprises is low and the market pattern is scattered; Alumina consumption accounts for 31% of caustic soda, 14% of chemical industry, 12% of papermaking and 13% of textile printing and dyeing. At present, the total capacity of domestic caustic soda has reached about 44million tons, and there are still new capacity and production plans for enterprises in the future. The downstream alumina, chemical fiber, papermaking, printing and dyeing industries have limited demand for caustic soda, and the market price of caustic soda has risen weakly again.
Summary and analysis of the full text
Supply side: at present, the units of caustic soda manufacturers have started stably, there is no inventory pressure for the time being, the maintenance units have also gradually resumed production, and the supply of goods has increased. However, supported by the export market and the booking of early orders, the supply of caustic soda in some western regions is relatively tight. In June, the supply of caustic soda will increase, and then the downstream demand will face greater pressure.
Demand side: at present, the downstream cost of caustic soda is under great pressure, and most manufacturers purchase on demand. However, due to the shortage of caustic soda inventory and the good export side, traders are more enthusiastic about purchasing. The short-term caustic soda market is supported by the supply side, and the overall market is optimistic
Aftermarket forecast
At present, the market demand for caustic soda is good, the downstream cost pressure is great, and most manufacturers purchase on demand. However, due to the shortage of caustic soda inventory and the good export side, traders are more enthusiastic about purchasing. The short-term caustic soda market is supported by the supply side, and the overall market is optimistic, but the price is difficult to increase again. It is expected that the short-term caustic soda price will remain stable or decline.
