【 Introduction 】 The global Pvc Resin market is mainly stabilizing, with weak demand in the European market and a slight decrease in prices. FOB prices in Northwest Europe have dropped to around $825 per ton; The Asian market was affected by an increase of $10/t in April quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, China, and the regional increase of $5-10/t was mainly at $790-800/t CFR.
1、 Social inventory continues to accumulate
As of now, the social inventory of PVC Resin powder in China is 600700 tons, an increase of 0.74% month on month and 14.38% year-on-year; Among them, the East China region accounted for 532500 tons, an increase of 0.53% month on month and 37.17% year-on-year; The South China region has 68200 tons, an increase of 2.4% month on month and a decrease of 50.22% year-on-year. Downstream production is relatively low, order continuity is not strong, and enterprise inventory in factory warehouses remains high; However, social inventory remains at a high level, and there is still a large amount of inventory waiting to be stored. Inventory continues to remain at a high level.
2、 Improvement of PVC powder production capacity utilization rate
This week, the production capacity utilization rate of PVC resin production enterprises increased by 1.63% month on month and 4.85% year-on-year at 80.24%; Among them, the PVC produced by the calcium carbide method increased by 2.05% month on month and 8.29% year-on-year at 81.21%, while the PVC resin produced by the ethylene method increased by 0.39% month on month and 6.43% year-on-year at 77.39%. At present, the production of PVC resin enterprises remains at a high level, and spring maintenance has not yet started. Some enterprises are not actively engaged in maintenance, resulting in an overall utilization rate of PVC resin production capacity higher than the same period last year.
3、 An increase in the price of calcium carbide
In terms of calcium carbide, the domestic price of calcium carbide has increased, with the mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region at 2900 yuan/ton. Production enterprises have smooth shipments, and the overall market supply is tight. The power restrictions in Inner Mongolia have been alleviated, but power plant failures or equipment maintenance in Wuhai and Ningxia have led to increased instability in operation. Recently, with the rise of calcium carbide prices, the price of blue charcoal has continued to decline, causing profit recovery for production enterprises and boosting their enthusiasm to start production. In the early stage, the stone furnace was shut down and power was gradually supplied, and it is expected that the overall supply capacity will improve in the later stage.
It is expected that the calcium carbide market will enter a stable consolidation stage next week, and with the enhancement of supply capacity, downstream arrivals will gradually be supplemented.
Overall, the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic PVC market are still relatively weak. On the supply side, the scale of maintenance is relatively small, and the reduction of losses is limited. Integrated enterprises have good profits from chlor alkali consolidation, and their production is maintained at a high level; On the demand side, the domestic demand increment is limited, while exports still maintain a price for quantity exchange. The overall industry inventory is high, and digestion is slow. However, the prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and ethylene on the cost side have remained strong, and maintenance has gradually increased since April. There is still support below the PVC resin powder. It is expected that the domestic PVC resin market will temporarily fluctuate and consolidate next week.
