1、 Price trend
According to the data, the average price of domestic mainstream PVC was 7575 yuan / ton on February 19, up 3.74% from 7350 yuan / ton on February 9, and 14.23% from the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
After the holiday, the PVC market rose, and the price continued to rise on the first two days of construction, with a total increase of 3.74%. The daily increase of enterprises was about 100-300 yuan / ton. Now some quotations have risen to more than 8000 yuan / ton, and the market price is not much, opening the first wave of price increase after the Spring Festival. Two days after the start of construction, the futures price rose sharply, driving the spot price. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the production capacity decreased, the international supply was tight, and the PVC export volume increased, which helped the PVC price rise. At present, there are too many enterprises that stop reporting PVC. They mainly issue orders and are cautious about the market. They are bullish. This year, the downstream demand started ahead of schedule, and the market is expected to be good. Boosted by the positive factors of rising futures price, good export and stronger demand, the PVC market is relatively strong, and the price is expected to continue to rise.
In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 7750-8050 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7900-8000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7750-7900 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7900-8050 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8000-8050 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8000-8150 yuan / ton.
In terms of futures, the main PVC futures contract 2105 on the 19th opened at 7960 yuan / ton and closed at 8220 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 7955 yuan / ton, up 3.33%. The trading range was 7885-8250 yuan / ton, with 395602 transactions and 358610 positions.
Upstream crude oil: on February 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.53/barrel, down US $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, settlement price rose, settlement price of the main contract at 63.93 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 U.S. dollars. On Thursday, oil prices rose. Brent once rose above US $65, and then the market high fell, mainly due to the impact of investment profit taking. Previously, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the decline of production capacity and the increase of demand have driven oil prices to rise for several days. Despite the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventory, the market is still uneasy about the current virtual high oil price, and the high selling has led to the decline of oil prices.
Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market overall upward trend. Asia's ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $852-860 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. By the 18th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1164-1177 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1150-1161 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 18th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival holiday, the whole ethylene market kept rising, the market trading atmosphere was warm and the transaction was positive.
On February 19, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, and the reference price was 3050.00, which was 1.08% lower than that on February 1 (3083.33). The price of raw material orchid charcoal was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide. The output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds the demand. Calcium carbide in the future fluctuated slightly.
3、 Future forecast
Our PVC analysts believe that the current market is strong, PVC futures prices rise, the spot market price increases along with it, the superimposed export volume increases, and downstream enterprises start earlier than in previous years, and the demand side support is gradually stronger. The market expectation is good, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise in the short term.
