After the national day, with the normalization of trading, Caustic Soda ushered in a wave of huge price rise process. On October 13, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was between 450 yuan and 530 yuan / ton. According to the data of the business association, the average market price of 32% caustic soda is 493 yuan / ton, which was 452.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of October. The average price of caustic soda increased by nearly 10% within 10 days.
The price rise of caustic soda this time is more like a rebound after the price has been greatly reduced. In September, the price of caustic soda suffered a big drop. The commodity index of caustic soda on September 14 was 65.11, a new low in the cycle, which was 68.53% lower than the highest point of 206.87 on November 14, 2017.
After two months of falling market, caustic soda entered the traditional peak season after the festival. Driven by the growth of demand, the low operating price was pulled by the good. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side has certain support. At the same time, October is also the peak period of maintenance. Jinling, Shandong Province, has an unexpected shutdown and production reduction of 100000 tons. During the National Day holiday, due to the blocked transportation of liquid chlorine on expressways, some chlor alkali enterprises' commodity chlorine was unsalable, and the expansion of liquid chlorine warehouse led to the decrease of operating load of caustic soda enterprises, which supported some manufacturers to increase the price of caustic soda.
From the demand side, the alumina industry has maintained a high profit in the near future, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to run strongly. The demand for caustic soda improved slightly, and the price of caustic soda increased slightly.
Industry insiders believe that the high-speed embargo in Shandong and other places is under pressure on the supply of caustic soda market. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side has certain support. October is also the peak period of maintenance, so the supply side may tighten.
China's caustic soda export Showing a growing trend
Caustic soda, whose scientific name is sodium hydroxide, is the basic chemical raw material of "three acids and two alkalis". The downstream of the industrial chain is alumina, Formic Acid, corrugated paper, etc.
Caustic soda is widely used in the national economy, mainly used in alumina production. At present, alumina is the industry with the largest demand in the downstream consumption distribution of domestic caustic soda, and the proportion of alumina in downstream consumption of caustic soda is 32% in 2019. China is the largest alumina producer in the world, and the growth of alumina production will further promote its demand for caustic soda.
Caustic soda basically comes from raw salt electrolysis, which will produce liquid chlorine and other polluting by-products, which has higher requirements for production enterprises. Environmental protection is an important factor limiting the development of caustic soda enterprises. In the increasingly stringent environmental protection situation, the promotion of market concentration is an irreversible trend in the development of the industry. In the future, large enterprises will obtain more and more market share.
As one of the common chemicals, caustic soda is also an important development field in China. China has the largest caustic soda production capacity in the world, with 160 manufacturers, accounting for 44% of the world's total capacity. In 2019, the output of caustic soda (equivalent to 100% purity) in China will be 34.644 million tons. The downstream sales will be smooth, and the production and sales rate will be 100%.
With the full resumption of work in China, the production capacity recovered to 100%, while at the same time, foreign countries entered the period with the greatest impact of the epidemic. Many factories were shut down and the transportation was not smooth, resulting in the shortage of many products including caustic soda.
In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, most countries purchased liquid caustic soda as disinfection supplies, which indirectly led to the expansion of the market gap of caustic soda, and China's export of caustic soda showed an increasing trend. After the outbreak of foreign epidemic in 2020, the supply of liquid caustic soda in foreign countries is insufficient, which makes some domestic liquid caustic soda export enterprises perform well.
In the long run, the demand for caustic soda is still expected to be better. At the beginning of 2020, China will implement the new "environmental protection law" and "code for safety design of caustic soda plants", which will bring pressure on the caustic soda industry with high energy consumption and high pollution. Many small capacity with a scale of less than 300000 tons are facing shutdown, especially this year, the start-up load of some enterprises in Hebei, Shandong and other places has decreased, which limits the capacity supply. It is expected that affected by the drop of liquid chlorine price and the pressure of environmental protection, the supply and demand pattern of caustic soda industry is expected to continue to improve.
