This week, the price of raw material coal tar has fallen from a high level. As of the time of receipt, taking the Shandong market as an example, the mainstream price of raw material coal tar is 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 3.13%. There is a strong atmosphere of observation in the venue. Analyzing the reasons for its decline, let's take a specific look:
Although the enthusiasm of coke enterprises to start production is still weak, the shortage of raw material coal tar supply is difficult to alleviate. However, downstream deep processing and
Carbon Black enterprises are becoming increasingly resistant to high raw material prices, and downstream willingness to receive goods is not strong. Coupled with some deep processing and carbon black factories having production and maintenance plans, the demand for raw material procurement is weakened, dragging down raw material prices and weakening support for carbon black costs.
From the demand side, the main downstream tire companies have maintained stable production, but some tire companies have carbon black inventory, and the downstream has limited acceptance of high prices for carbon black. The terminal is multi-dimensional and has a strong demand to purchase. Coupled with the downward impact of raw material prices this week, the bearish atmosphere in downstream terminals is gradually rising, and the enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black has weakened. Overall, there is no positive support on the demand side. This week, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi steel tire sample enterprises was 80.53%, with a month on month ratio of+0.19 percentage points and a year-on-year ratio of+1.30 percentage points; The production capacity utilization rate of China's all steel tire sample enterprises is 72.34%, which is+0.87 percentage points month on month and -1.51 percentage points year-on-year.
Overall, the bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides is evident, with a high level of bearish sentiment on the market. However, the market price fluctuation is relatively small, and the main reason is still to consider the wet carbon black market. Although raw material prices have declined, most enterprises have high inventory of oil produced carbon black in the early stage, and the production cost pressure of enterprises is not reduced. Coupled with some carbon black enterprises having production and maintenance arrangements, the market supply is slightly scarce, and carbon black enterprises are firmly quoting, maintaining high market prices. As of receipt, the operating rate of carbon black sample enterprises is 66.37%, which is -4.45% higher than last week.
In the future, although the shortage of raw material supply is difficult to alleviate, downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises have weakened demand for coal tar procurement, and the price of raw material coal tar may continue to decline. The cost support performance of carbon black is not good; At the terminal level, downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to receive goods, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods is average. The terminal is multi-dimensional and supports the purchase of essential goods, resulting in a strong bearish atmosphere on the market. The bearish sentiment on the market is evident, and there may be a slight downward trend in the carbon black market price. It is expected that the mainstream delivery price for carbon black in the market will be between 8800-9100 yuan/ton next week.
