In the first half of the year, the domestic MELAMINE market fluctuated sharply, with an amplitude of 134.3%. At the beginning of the year, the price of melamine was relatively low, only 7000 yuan (ton price, the same below), but the price soared from April to early May, reaching a maximum of 15000 yuan, with an amplitude of 134.3%. Due to the excessive increase, the price then fell sharply, quickly fell below the 10000 yuan mark, and fell near 9000 yuan at the lowest point; In June, the market stabilized and rebounded, and the price was more than 10000 yuan at the end of June.
The market fluctuated and rose
From the specific trend of each month, the melamine market was slightly stable in the first quarter, and the sharp fluctuations were mainly concentrated in the second quarter. In the monthly rise and fall list of chemical products from April to June, melamine ranked either in the top of the rise list or in the top of the decline list. In April, the price of melamine rose from 9383 yuan at the beginning of the month to 12600 yuan at the end of the month, with a sharp increase of 34.3%, ranking first in the increase list of chemical products in the month; In May, it fell by 25.9%, ranking the second in the list of chemical products in the month; In June, the price rose by 18.4%, ranking the fourth in the list of chemical products in that month.
After more than 80 days of continuous price rise, the melamine market ushered in an inflection point after the May Day festival, and showed a trend of "uncontrollable". Under the new atmosphere of price reduction and trading orders, melamine traders have slowed down one after another. However, the price decline exacerbated the wait-and-see mood of downstream factories, thus forming a vicious circle. Only just need to follow up, and the purchase volume is limited. The price of melamine has fallen rapidly by more than 5000 yuan in a short time, and the market is like taking a "roller coaster".
Three factors support
Compared with last year, the overall melamine market showed an upward trend in the first half of this year, especially from April to May. There are three main reasons: first, the impact of the environment. Since this year, the prices of crude oil, steel, building materials, chemicals and other bulk products have soared, and the price of melamine can rise to an ultra high price of more than 15000 yuan, which is closely related to the overall environment. Second, the price of raw material urea rose sharply. In the first half of the year, the international urea price soared to more than $450, driving the domestic urea price to rise sharply. At the highest, the domestic urea ex factory quotation exceeded 2700 yuan, an increase of about 1000 yuan compared with the beginning of this year, pushing up the production cost of melamine. Third, the downstream demand has increased greatly. Wood based panel industry is the main downstream industry of melamine. From February to April last year, it was the most urgent period of domestic epidemic prevention, and many enterprises stopped production. This year, the enterprises basically returned to normal production, and the operating rate increased significantly by more than 50% year-on-year.
In addition, the prosperity of downstream melamine, impregnated paper and other industries also rebounded significantly. Some enterprise orders were placed until July, and the demand for melamine was relatively strong.
The improvement of melamine export market this year is also one of the important factors supporting the rise of domestic prices.
According to statistics, in the first five months of this year, China's melamine export volume was about 180000 tons, an increase of 35.4% over the same period last year.
Relatively stable in the later stage
In the first half of the year, the melamine market fluctuated sharply. In fact, there were many irrational factors. Some manufacturers tried their best to push up the price, causing downstream anxiety and chasing higher purchases. In the second half of the year, the market is expected to be relatively stable, and the price fluctuation range may be within 50%.
In the second half of the year, the demand and export will still maintain a good momentum. At the same time, the high operation of urea price also supports melamine, but the increase of supply is expected to bring some bad news to the melamine market. At present, melamine is highly profitable and the enterprise has high production enthusiasm. Urumqi Petrochemical has decided to restart the melamine plant that has been shut down for nearly 10 years.
In the second half of the year, the operating rate of melamine enterprises is expected to exceed 70%, and the national average daily output is more than 4000 tons. From the comprehensive analysis of cost, production and demand, export and other factors, the price of melamine is expected to operate in the range of 8000 ~ 12000 yuan in the second half of the year, and it is still in the high range from the historical price.
