After the May Day holiday, the spot price of domestic PVC market reached a new high and fluctuated frequently. The average price of SG-5 in East China rose to 9473 yuan / ton, but then fell back. As of today, the average transaction price of SG-5 in East China was 9340 yuan / ton. After the May Day holiday, the rise of PVC spot price was mainly driven by the sharp rise of PVC futures, while the sharp rise of PVC futures was mainly due to the better macro performance of the periphery, the general rise of bulk commodities, the rise of PVC and the relatively strong fundamentals of PVC; PVC prices fell slightly after rising, mainly due to the cooling of the commodity market.
As for the trend of PVC market in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the spot fundamentals and the macro influence. First, let's take a look at the main factors that PVC fundamentals need to pay attention to
Benefit factor
1. The number of overhauls increased in May. At present, the number of planned maintenance enterprises has increased significantly in May, and maintenance is relatively concentrated. Zhuo Chuang information assessed the maintenance loss in May as 197700 tons through the current maintenance plan, which is the highest maintenance loss month since this year.
2. The spot market is slightly tight. Recently, the supply of some brands in East China and South China is relatively tight, especially some high-end goods. Traders have begun to carry out pre-sale. Of course, there are still goods in the market at present, but some of them are arbitrage goods, and their liquidity is limited.
3. Strong demand side resilience. There is a great pressure on the cost of downstream terminal products enterprises, but most enterprises say that the orders are OK, and some of them deliver the early orders, so the short-term demand will not decline significantly.
4. Social inventory continues to decline. At present, compared with previous years, social inventory is at a low level, and there is still a downward trend.
Negative factors
1. The downstream cost pressure of the terminal increases. When the price of PVC rises to about 9500 yuan / ton, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals is obviously weakened. If the price of PVC continues to be high, part of the terminal demand will be squeezed out.
2. The epidemic situation in India is serious and the external market is weakening. Recently, the epidemic situation in India has intensified, the demand for PVC in India has weakened, and the supply from the United States has gradually recovered, resulting in the weakening of the international PVC market. I heard that Formosa Plastics reported a lower inventory forecast in June.
3. Domestic exports are falling. In the first quarter, the domestic export volume reached the peak, but with the weakening of the external market, the domestic export arbitrage window will be gradually closed, and the export volume will fall significantly.
To sum up, PVC fundamentals coexist, short-term PVC supply and demand side will not appear obvious reversal, supply and demand side transformation takes time, short-term PVC fundamentals support still exist. Therefore, from a purely fundamental point of view, there is no new driving factor in the short term, PVC will continue to be in a high range shock state. However, in the case of a substantial upward trend of commodities, the macro market atmosphere may cool down, which may have a certain impact on the trend of commodities. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the macro changes in the later stage.
