In 2021, the price of Caustic Soda first fell and then rose, and the price fell from November. In the middle and late October, the price of caustic soda has reached a ten-year high. Mainly affected by the "double control" policy.
On January 2, April and November 2021, the price fell, and the biggest increase in other rising months was 90% in September.
The average market price of caustic soda at the beginning of the year was about 485 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 1000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 106.19%. The price of caustic soda was adjusted in the first and second quarters. The price rose from June to early November, then fell from November, and began to rebound from mid to late December.
In 2021, the overall price of caustic soda rose 106.19%, the downstream Formic Acid rose 62.26%, and the corrugated paper rose 12.97%. The rise of downstream prices drives the demand for caustic soda.
In the first quarter of the year, the overall supply of caustic soda was sufficient, the overall factory price of caustic soda was stable and small, the cost side changed little, and the downstream procurement demand was general, which had a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. Although a few caustic soda manufacturers tentatively raised their quotation, it had a limited impact on the market.
In the second quarter, the price of caustic soda began to rise slightly. Due to the inventory demand of alumina enterprises in Shandong, the demand for caustic soda was acceptable. However, at present, the overall inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and other regions mainly wait and see. The subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda is still the main.
In the third quarter, the price of caustic soda in Shandong rose, the maintenance inventory of caustic soda manufacturers decreased recently, and the downstream alumina is still supported by demand. In addition, the export of caustic soda is well oriented. According to the data, the export of liquid soda in June was 136400 tons, with a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.
From late October to the end of November, the price of caustic soda went down. At the beginning of the month, due to the dual control policy, caustic soda manufacturers stopped and the supply decreased. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises are more active in purchasing caustic soda in the near future, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is increased. In late October, the prices of alumina purchasing enterprises and caustic soda were lowered, and the recent demand of downstream was general.
Since the middle of December, the price began to rebound again, mainly because the enterprise inventory was low and the downstream alumina procurement was better than that in the early stage. The increase of caustic soda is mainly due to the maintenance of manufacturers, the environmental protection inspection at the end of the year and the advent of the Winter Olympic Games. It is expected that the supply will decrease, the inventory of enterprises will decrease and the price of caustic soda will rise.
Caustic soda: the price of caustic soda in January was relatively adjusted and operated. In 2021, affected by the environment and policies, caustic soda increased greatly. Throughout 2022, there may not be a historical high in 2021, but it will usher in the peak season according to the price in the third quarter of previous years. The adjustment and operation in other months will be dominated, depending on the downstream market demand.
