Olin chlor alkali has restored the production load of 835000 tons of vinyl chloride unit and started supplying vinyl chloride monomers to Xinyue. The US export price has increased by around $20 to around $770 per ton FOB, and the market expects future maintenance to reduce supply, supporting short-term price increases. However, the market expects weak demand at the end of the year and prices will still be under pressure.
The social inventory of PVC Resin powder continued to decrease slightly compared to the previous month
As of now, the social inventory of Pvc Resin in China is 475100 tons, a decrease of 0.36% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 24.25%; Among them, the East China region had 409100 tons, an increase of 0.57% month on month and 30.75% year-on-year; In South China, there were 66000 tons, a decrease of 5.71% month on month and 5.04% year-on-year. Export orders continue to be good, while inventory performance in South China is decreasing, while the pace of inventory reduction in East China is slow, with a slight increase.
High inventory pressure on PVC products
The off-season of domestic trade has gradually passed, and although the real estate reform has not driven it, the completion of the project is still expected in the later stage. Some PVC product companies are expected to improve their orders in the later stage. During the week, there was little fluctuation in the construction of PVC profile enterprises, and their own order situation was used as a reference for construction. In terms of raw materials, the inventory cycle continues to range from 15 to 30 days. PVC product companies are cautious in receiving goods this week, with some digesting early inventory and others primarily in demand. The inventory cycle of products varies from 15 to 25 days, with some being pending orders and some large enterprises having high inventory of PVC products. Small and medium-sized enterprises mostly produce products based on sales. Currently, domestic PVC panels, PVC sheets, PVC film materials, etc. are expected to improve in the future, but attention needs to be paid to their sustainability.
Calcium carbide prices continue to rise
The overall domestic calcium carbide market has increased, with mainstream trade prices in the Wuhai region rising to 2950 yuan/ton. Production enterprises have smooth shipments and tight supply of goods. The high level of upstream orchid charcoal remains stable, and the attention to limestone has increased. Non coal mines have strengthened inspections, and some lime mountains in Inner Mongolia have ceased production, leading to a reluctance to sell lime and rising prices. It is difficult to obtain high-quality limestone in one shipment. Downstream delivery is tight, waiting for unloading vehicles is low, procurement prices are rising, and procurement is active. Next week, the external sales of supporting calcium carbide are expected to contract, and the supply will decrease, strengthening the enthusiasm for downstream procurement. It is expected that the market's supply shortage will strengthen next week, and procurement enthusiasm will increase. There will still be a narrow range of strong increases.
Overall, in terms of exports, Xinyue in the United States has not yet recovered, but the news of Olin's resumption of production has eased the tension of VCM. In the later stage, there will be nearly 1.1 million tons of equipment maintenance at Formosa Plastics in the United States. In addition, domestic ethylene based PVC production equipment also has maintenance, and the supply of ethylene based PVC Resin is still slightly tight. After the introduction of prices by Formosa Plastics in September, the market has a clear expectation of short-term high prices. Coupled with domestic shipping efforts, it is temporarily not bullish on the external market, and the calcium carbide method 800 ethylene method 840 may become the upper limit; The domestic market demand is gradually improving, and the market is waiting for the increment of the small peak season; In addition, the current cost side of calcium carbide is tight, and ethylene is still optimistic abroad, with enhanced bottom support.
