1、 Price trend
According to the large data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric ACID on November 16 was 5016.67 yuan / ton, up 0.33% compared with the beginning of the month, 3.08% on a month on month basis, 6.23% lower than the beginning of the year, and 6.25% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In November, the phosphoric acid market showed a steady upward trend. Due to the increase of electricity price in normal water period, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus went up, driving the price trend of phosphoric acid. Recently, the price of yellow phosphorus has stabilized, and the fluctuation of phosphoric acid has decreased. The increase is in the range of 50-100 yuan / ton, and most of the enterprises are waiting-and-see. At present, the market demand is insufficient to follow up, some enterprises are under pressure to ship goods, and new orders are generally traded. Therefore, there is no effective driving force for the upstream, and the enthusiasm for pursuing the rise of the downstream is not high. The price of phosphoric acid is facing a stalemate for the time being. With the requirements of atmospheric monitoring and environmental protection in autumn and winter, the spot price of yellow phosphorus is still tight, and the future market is still expected to rise, which may continue to drive the phosphoric acid Market soaring.
According to the monitoring, as of November 16, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5016.67 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the quotation in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Tianjin, it was 5600 yuan/ In Jiangsu Province, the price is about 4800 yuan / ton, which is stable and wait-and-see, and the prices in various places are stable and rising.
The phosphoric acid industry chain tends to rise
For yellow phosphorus, in the first ten days of November, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market was stable and rising. At present, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the yellow phosphorus market spot is slightly tense. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16500 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Guizhou is relatively stable at around 16200 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 16500 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost, the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise the price, but the downstream acceptance is not high.
Since the beginning of November, the domestic phosphate ore market has been running steadily. During this period, it is heard that some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi intend to increase the ex factory quotation of phosphate ore, but due to the small increase of orders in the short term, it has not been implemented on the spot. Until the 10th, some mining enterprises in Guizhou slightly raised the ex factory price of medium and high-end phosphate ores by 10-20 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is stable and the overall high-level sorting operation is carried out.
Ammonium phosphate, at present, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is declining, and the price is rising. DAP mainly sends export orders and downstream compound fertilizers are purchased on demand. It is expected that in the short term, monoammonium will continue to maintain the upward trend, and diammonium will increase steadily or slightly.
3、 Future forecast
We believe that the current market demand follow-up is insufficient, individual enterprises are under pressure to ship, and new orders are generally traded. Therefore, there is no effective driving force for the upstream, and the enthusiasm for pursuing the rise in the downstream is not high. The price of phosphoric acid is facing a stalemate in the short term. With the expectation of rising yellow phosphorus in the future, the market price of phosphoric acid may continue to soar.
