In March, the overall price of domestic PVC Paste Resin showed a stable trend after rising, and the price focus decreased slightly. During the month, the driving factors affecting the price trend of PVC paste Resin jumped horizontally in macro and fundamentals.
In March, the price of domestic PVC paste resin stabilized after rising, and the price decreased slightly near the end of the month, and the overall price focus shifted downward. As of March 29, the mainstream delivery price of large-scale materials in East China was 102001000 yuan / ton, and the average price of this month was 10681 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from the average price of last month; The mainstream delivery price of gloves in North China is 10400-10800 yuan / ton, and the average price of this month is 10595 yuan / ton, down 2.24% from the average price of last month.
The factors affecting the price fluctuation of PVC paste resin in March are intertwined. The following are analyzed from the macro and micro perspectives:
The sharp rise of crude oil in early March has given a certain boost to the market mentality
In March, the oil price first rose and then fell, and then rebounded again. The fluctuation was huge, with an amplitude of more than $30 / barrel. Brent oil price once hit a new high of $139.13 / barrel. In the case of weak fundamental performance of PVC paste, crude oil rose sharply in early March, and PVC futures rose one after another, which led to the improvement of market mentality as a whole, and the demand for goods preparation at some terminals increased significantly, driving the price of PVC paste to rise by 100-200 yuan / ton.
The output of PVC paste increased slightly in March
In March, the average operating load of PVC paste industry was 61.41%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. During the month, the start-up of PVC paste enterprises was different. The start-up load of some paste resin enterprises with low start-up load in mid and early March increased slightly, and the start-up load of the industry in mid and early March increased slightly compared with that in February. In late March, Yidong and Shenyang chemical industries in Inner Mongolia were temporarily suspended, which lowered the average operating load rate in March as a whole. However, in terms of output, it is estimated that the output of PVC paste in March 2022 will be 87700 tons, an increase of 7.56% month on month. Therefore, the market supply side remained at a high level in March.
The demand performance is different, and the overall performance is slightly weak
From the perspective of PVC glove products industry downstream of glove materials, the export order receiving situation of some large glove products enterprises improved slightly in mid March, and the order price increased slightly compared with the previous period, mainly due to the continuous rise of domestic bulk commodity prices in March, the rise of raw material prices and the decrease of overseas product inventory, which are the main reasons for the increase of overseas orders. Some glove products enterprises are more active in purchasing glove materials in mid and early March than in the previous period, It eased the pressure of glove material inventory of individual paste resin enterprises, and glove products enterprises mainly digested their own raw material inventory in the second half of the month. The demand of PVC gloves industry is expected to increase by 9.85% month on month in March.
The order receiving situation of some terminal products industries with large inventory is general, in which the number of overseas orders in toy, leather and other industries is still weak, and the demand performance of conveyor belt industry in some regions is poor. In addition, the arrival of raw materials such as paste resin or additives in some areas is slow, and even the commencement decreases. In addition, the order receiving of export orders is not good, the enthusiasm for commencement is general, and the demand for large quantities of materials is limited.
After mid March, the situation of oversupply in the market was relatively obvious, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was general. Some terminals just needed to purchase, and some were in obvious wait-and-see mood. However, due to the slow circulation of goods and other factors in some areas, individual drops occurred in the market price stability in late March.
From the above, the overall operation logic of the market in the first ten days of March is mainly driven by the macro impact, and the operation logic of the market in the middle and second ten days of March is gradually transferred to the fundamentals. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the changes of market fundamentals. The supply may remain high, and the node of demand improvement is not clear. It is expected that the market price will be stable, and some or weak expectations still exist.
