After entering October, driven by the price of raw materials and coal energy, PVC went out of the increase of 5.5%, and the spot PVC exceeded 7000 / T. And the trend of impact high again. On the whole, domestic short-term supply pressure is large, and export, maintenance and pre-sale have a supporting role on the market. The cost support brought by the price of raw materials, the centralized maintenance of a large number of units and the current situation of low inventory in the downstream are all the core power to support the impact of high PVC.
1、 PVC supply
The maintenance of new units in October is as follows: the 700000 tons of jinyuyuan plant in Ningxia began to take turns on October 19; the 300000 ton units in Yihua, Yidong and Dongxing in Inner Mongolia are scheduled to be overhauled in a short term; the large-scale overhaul of Suzhou HuaSu and Ningxia Yingli will affect the production capacity until the middle of November. The recovery capacity is the 500000 ton unit of Qinghai Salt Lake magnesium industry, the 400000 ton unit of Yidong Dongxing in Inner Mongolia and the 50000 ton maintenance unit of Wuhu in Anhui Province. The impact of plant maintenance in October increased by 130000 tons compared with September, and the supply pressure was lower than expected. This year, due to Dongxing, Nanlin, Xiyang chemical and other enterprises began to shut down for a long time in April last year, and the salt lake stopped for a long time in February this year, which also led to a significant increase in the loss of this year compared with the same period last year.
2、 Coal prices continue to rise
After entering October, coke led the black plate to continue to strengthen, the latest reported 2172 yuan / ton, up 9.2%, breaking a 15 month high. Many places in Shaanxi have introduced coking capacity reduction policies, and the North China inspection team has been stationed in Shaanxi to supervise the implementation of eliminating backward production capacity. Local coke enterprises have affected the production capacity by nearly 40%, maintaining low or even zero inventory in the field, which forms greater pressure on the already tight supply and demand situation of coke.
Driven by coal, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly in October. The average price of calcium carbide arrived in Northwest China was 2800 yuan / ton, and the manufacturing cost was 3760 yuan / ton, but it was still lower than the same period last year. In addition to the cost increase of calcium carbide method, the cost of PVC prepared by ethylene method is still high, and the price of ethylene is in short supply. At the end of October, the FOB price of vinyl chloride rose to 980 US dollars / ton, higher than the level of 240 US dollars / ton in the same period of last year. The profit of PVC made by ethylene process was reduced to - 673 yuan / ton, creating a new low.
3、 Data speak, gold nine silver ten not weak
The industry generally believes that under the impact of the epidemic this year, the market vitality is lower than in previous years, and the consumption power is weakened, which makes the golden nine silver ten peak season not prosperous this year. However, the data shows that PVC market may be underestimated and the downstream demand for PVC is not weak.
After April this year, China's 10-year PVC anti-dumping act was invalid, and the domestic PVC market was impacted by low-cost products from the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In August this year, China's PVC import volume reached 120000 tons, an increase of 147.42% year-on-year; the data in September showed that the import volume of PVC reached 78500 tons, an increase of 108.14% over the same period of last year; the cumulative import volume from January to September increased by 313000 tons compared with last year.
After entering October, the social inventory of PVC decreased, and the social inventory of PVC decreased by 12.08% month on month. Film and other soft products factories are mostly produced according to orders. PVC pipes, profiles, flooring products, plates, cables, pelleting, high-end medical and other fields continue to produce with high opening rate, continuously consuming social inventory. This year, the planned new production capacity is 3.02 million tons / year, and the annual growth rate is 10.97% of the high value in recent years. Under the impact of the substantial increase in production and the impact of over 100000 tons of imported materials in recent two months, the inventory can still continue to decrease, and the overall social inventory increase is only 26400 tons, which shows that the downstream demand is not weak.
4、 Market outlook
Under the background of the substantial increase in production this year and the invalidation of the anti-dumping act, the domestic PVC price should be impacted. However, since the price of PVC rebounded to the normal level under the control of the epidemic in July, ma30 still showed a gradual upward trend. The strong demand absorbed a large amount of accumulated inventory, new production and imported materials. With the continuous deterioration of the epidemic situation in foreign countries, enterprises have been hit by the start-up, the dependence on China's PVC flooring has increased, and the domestic PVC export volume has made steady progress.
Affected by the price rise of PVC, downstream enterprises generally maintain low stock operation, and the inventory is maintained at about one week. The low level of social inventory and downstream inventory is beneficial to the price of PVC. The short-term centralized maintenance and the increase of production cost have a supporting effect on PVC. It is believed that the operation of PVC will be stronger in the short term.
