1、 Price trend
On October 10, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 6742.5 yuan / ton, up 0.94% compared with the beginning of the month, 2.47% month on month, and 0.71% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Jinjiu has passed, PVC rose 1.75% in the whole month, and the increase is not big. As the demand did not meet the expectations, the PVC market in the first half of the month showed a trend of rising and then falling, and the weak market continued to the middle of the month. In the second half of the month, the PVC spot market began to rise steadily. As the holidays approached, the downstream began to open the replenishment mode, and the futures continued to rise, boosting the spot market trend. The low-end price of PVC began to move closer to the high-end price. The market trading atmosphere turned better, and the industry was optimistic Source is not much, factory pre-sale is better, PVC center of gravity gradually moved up.
After the October holiday, the market of PVC rose, and the current price rose to more than 6700 yuan. This round of rise is mainly driven by the rise of futures, improved demand, tight supply of goods, and rising costs. PVC has become popular in large areas, and mainstream enterprises have raised it by about 50-170 yuan. Take Yihua, Inner Mongolia as an example, it rose from 6680 yuan / ton before the festival to 6850 yuan / ton after the festival, with an increase of 170 yuan. Some enterprises are in short supply and do not offer for the time being. Due to the limited transportation during the holidays, the quantity of PVC delivered has decreased, and it still needs time to recover after the festival. In addition, many enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa have planned to repair and repair recently, the market supply is tight, and the supply side is good, and the PVC price is up. After the festival, the downstream just needed replenishment, and most of the market transactions were at the low and medium price. However, the export market improved, the demand side was strong, and the trend of PVC was relatively strong.
On the spot, the domestic pvc5 type calcium carbide mainstream quotation range is 6560-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6800-6900 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of pvc5 type calcium carbide in Hebei is 6720-6770 yuan / ton, the price of Inner Mongolia is 6500-6550 yuan / ton, the range of Hangzhou is 6700-6800 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of Changzhou is 6680-6780 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of ordinary PVC carbide in Guangzhou is 6980-7100 yuan / ton The price of our company has risen steadily.
In terms of futures, PVC futures rose sharply after the festival, breaking through 6700 yuan, boosting the spot market. On the 9th, the main contract 2101 opened 6650 yuan / ton and closed at 6765 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 6580 yuan / ton, up 2.81%. The trading range was 6625-6780 yuan / ton, with 152637 transactions and 194944 positions.
Upstream crude oil, on October 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 40.60 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.85 US dollars / barrel, down 0.49 US dollars. The fall in oil prices was mainly due to the end of a strike that affected Norway's oil production.
For ethylene, the recent decline in the U.S. ethylene market has led to poor demand; the European ethylene market has declined with general market demand; the Asian ethylene price is mainly up, and the demand is fair. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.
Calcium carbide, calcium carbide price rose slightly after the festival, the quotation was around 2690-2770 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal. Calcium carbide rose slightly after the shock.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts believe that the trend of PVC futures after the festival is stronger, driving up the price of spot market. The superposition of fundamentals is better, and manufacturers have strong price support sentiment. It is expected that the trend of PVC will be stronger in the short term, and the price will rise steadily.
