Since July, the domestic Caustic Soda market has changed its declining trend and the market has continued to improve. The prices of both liquid caustic soda market and flake caustic soda have increased significantly. In the liquid caustic soda market, taking Shandong as an example, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali increased by 140-160 yuan / ton, an increase of about 30%, and the price of 50% ionic membrane alkali increased by 410-450 yuan / ton, an increase of 46% - 53%; In the flake caustic soda market, Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the local price of 99% flake caustic soda increased by 250 yuan / ton, or about 15%.
The liquid caustic soda market has made rapid progress, especially in the aspect of high alkali, which is mainly reflected in: first, some enterprises have been overhauled this month, and the supply of goods in the market has decreased; Second, alumina enterprises raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda, especially alumina enterprises in Shandong raised the purchase price of local liquid caustic soda four times at the end of the month; Third, the export market continued to improve. The export volume of liquid caustic soda in June was 136400 tons, a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that the export volume in July will be about 150000 tons. The main reasons for the rising market price of flake alkali are as follows: on the one hand, some manufacturers in Northwest China are overhauled, the market supply of goods is reduced, the supply of goods is tight, and some even sign orders in limited quantities; On the other hand, the price of high alkali in Shandong continues to rise, and the cost side also brings some favorable support.
According to the summary, the current caustic soda market has favorable support on the cost side, supply side and demand side. In addition, with the help of export, the favorable market will still play a leading role. At the same time, it should also be noted that due to the impact of environmental protection, the operation of alumina enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and Henan has decreased, affecting the production capacity of about 6 million tons. At present, the impact on the caustic soda market is limited. In the later stage, with the increase of environmental protection, it is expected to further expand the impact on the production of alumina industry, which will be reflected in the caustic soda market. Therefore, in the short term, the domestic caustic soda market will still show a stable and positive trend. In the later stage, we should pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand!
Brief analysis of recent domestic caustic soda Market
1、 Liquid caustic soda Market
This week, the domestic liquid caustic soda market basically maintained stable operation, and the prices of some enterprises increased, but it has no substantive impact on the overall market for the time being. The downstream demand in Shandong is good, the inventory of some enterprises is tight, and the price of highly flake caustic soda increases by 50 yuan / ton; Hebei is supported by the price of Shandong, and the local price rises accordingly; Due to the maintenance of some local enterprises in Inner Mongolia, the start-up of units decreased, and affected by the general environment, the local price increased by 150 yuan / ton (100%); Affected by the typhoon "fireworks" in Zhejiang, some enterprises reduced the load of equipment and the price was temporarily stable; Other regions remained basically stable.
At present, about 84% of the units of chlor alkali enterprises are started, driven by the maintenance and export market. In addition, alumina enterprises in Shandong have raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda for four times, the downstream demand is good, there is no pressure on enterprise shipment, the on-site trading atmosphere is active, the operation enthusiasm of people in the industry is high, and the favorable market is the dominant factor.
At present, the plant of chlor alkali enterprises has started stably, and the insiders operate actively. Driven by the export market, the favorable market still dominates. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic liquid caustic soda market will still be mostly stable, medium and strong in the short term.
2、 Flake caustic soda Market
This week, the domestic flake caustic soda market rose, and the price of main producing areas rose by 100 yuan / ton, driving the price rise in other domestic production and marketing areas. At present, the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is 1950-2000 yuan / ton.
At present, Zhonggu mining, Inner Mongolia Yihua, Inner Mongolia Jilantai and Inner Mongolia Junzheng (Wuda) are in the maintenance period. The unit operation of flake caustic soda manufacturers has decreased, the supply of goods in the market has decreased, the manufacturer's inventory is low, and the supply is tight. There are limited signing orders. The manufacturers mostly hold the mentality of price increase, and the price in Inner Mongolia has exceeded 2000 yuan / ton; At the same time, the market price in the main production areas continued to rise, which also had a great impact on the market price in the main sales areas, and the prices in various regions rose accordingly. On the whole, from July to August, there were many manufacturers in Northwest China for maintenance, the price of highly flake caustic soda in Shandong continued to rise, coupled with the stable demand for alumina and the return of foreign trade textile orders, which played a positive support for the current flake caustic soda market in terms of cost, supply and demand. The market advantage was the dominant factor, and the insiders operated actively.
With the continuous maintenance, the supply of manufacturers will continue to be tight. In addition, traders operate actively, and the favorable market still dominates. Most people in the industry hold a bullish attitude. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic flake alkali market will be stable and upward next week.
