【 Introduction 】 The spot export price of Pvc Resin in the United States fell by 15-20 US dollars per ton during the week. The market estimates that the PVC powder price in Asia in October may be lower than the price in September. The PVC market in Asia is expected to be priced at 10-30 US dollars per ton this week, with CFR India below 860 US dollars per ton. Although the United States is facing tight supply due to equipment maintenance and production cuts, demand is not so.
PVC powder social inventory continues to decrease slightly month on month
As of now, the social inventory of PVC powder in China is 458000 tons, a decrease of 0.95% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 23.55%; Among them, in the East China region, there were 395100 tons, a decrease of 1.35% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 27.16%; In South China, there were 62900 tons, an increase of 1.62% month on month and 4.83% year-on-year.
International PVC Resin market demand slows down
The demand for PVC resin in India has slowed down, and most customers have already completed their stocking demand for September. Moreover, downstream pipeline demand is currently tepid, and the enthusiasm to continue hoarding inventory at current prices has decreased. At the end of the month, the demand for foreign trade terminal orders was weak. As early expectations did not materialize, the performance of industrial fundamentals was weak, market prices fluctuated and decreased, and the atmosphere for foreign trade exports slowed down. The bearish future prices exacerbated the downward trend in foreign trade export prices; During the week, relevant financial policies were released, and the macro environment for commodities was positive. The market volatility rebounded, but market transactions remained flat with limited upside potential.
Domestic calcium carbide prices continue to rise
This week, the domestic calcium carbide market still saw a narrow upward trend, with mainstream trade prices in the Wuhai region rising to 3250 yuan/ton, and overall supply remains tight. The production enterprises started this week with instability, and there were occasional power restrictions in the Greater Wuhai region, resulting in unstable supply. Junzheng's maintenance is approaching its end, and the external sales of calcium carbide have decreased. Downstream, there is a regional shortage of goods. The price of raw material orchid charcoal has increased, presenting a situation of easy to rise but difficult to fall, providing certain cost support. Next week, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase. Firstly, from a supply perspective, there are plans to resume production of calcium carbide furnaces that have been shut down in the early stage. Secondly, the high price of PVC resin has fallen, and under cost pressure, the upward trend has been hindered. Thirdly, the cost side of blue carbon prices has increased, providing support for the price side. With the increase in supply, the market's supply shortage has eased to some extent, but the supply is still tight in the short term.
Overall, the scale of PVC maintenance in China is gradually decreasing, and supply is gradually recovering. There are currently no intensive maintenance plans in other regions of Asia; There has been no increase in orders from domestic downstream product companies at the end of the month, and there is sufficient inventory of products. Demand has not improved. From the perspective of foreign trade, there is a delay in demand in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected prices for October are low; From the perspective of market supply and demand, there has been no improvement in the slow increase in supply and demand, and the competitive pressure in the foreign trade export market has increased. The domestic cost side remains strong supported by high energy levels, providing good support for the bottom of the market.
